Week 16 of the 2025 NFL campaign continues with a Sunday Night Football matchup between the New England Patriots and Baltimore Ravens. It has been a tale of 2 very different seasons for these 2 teams. New England comes in with an 11-3 record and leads the AFC East, while Baltimore is in must-win mode at 7-7.
Here is my Same Game Parlay for the festivities, which get underway at 8:20 pm ET on NBC. Also be sure to check out our full Patriots vs Ravens predictions.
Patriots ML (+136)
TreVeyon Henderson to record 60+ rushing yards (+140)
Lamar Jackson Over 212.5 passing yards (-114)
Parlay odds: +590
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as New England running back TreVeyon Henderson having a big night would obviously work well with a Patriots victory. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with backing Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson to rack up his fair share of yards. But even if he does, there is no reason why the visitors can’t get the job done. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
Patriots ML (+136)
Despite being 15 weeks through the season, oddsmakers and bettors still appear to be living in the recent past. The Ravens are favored because…they are the Ravens. However, the 2025 sample size is large enough – with room to spare – to confirm that the Patriots are a far superior team. Yes, Baltimore is playing at home on Sunday – but that shouldn’t matter. The Pats are much better on the road (6-0) than they are in Foxborough (5-3); the Ravens are worse at home (3-5) than they are on the road (4-2). As such, I feel good about the visitors’ chances of faring well on both sides of the ball in this matchup. Baltimore ranks #20 in total offensive EPA metrics and isn’t much better on defense (#16). Head coach John Harbaugh’s squad is #19 in defensive EPA per pass and it is allowing 233.3 passing yards per contest (#26). The Ravens are second-to-last in sacks. Meanwhile, the Patriots are #6 in total offensive EPA and #12 in total defensive EPA. Their point differential is better than every team in the league other than the 2 best in the NFC – the Seahawks and Rams. I expected head coach Mike Vrabel’s team to play with fire – it always does regardless—following last week’s tough loss to Buffalo.
TreVeyon Henderson to record 60+ rushing yards (+140)
Henderson shares the Patriots backfield with Rhamondre Stevenson, but it has become increasingly clear that Henderson is the featured player. Over the past 4 games, the Ohio State product has gotten 25 more carries than Stevenson. Henderson has gained at least 62 yards in 5 consecutive contests, a stretch that includes performances of 147 and 148 yards on the ground. By comparison, Stevenson has not run for more than 50 yards in any of the last 4 outings. New England now faces a Baltimore defense that is decent but unspectacular against the run, allowing 111.1 yards per game on 4.2 yards per carry.
Lamar Jackson Over 212.5 passing yards (-114)
This play actually works well with the Patriots winning, as Jackson will have to air it out if his team is playing from behind. What we don’t want is Baltimore grabbing a sizable early lead and then sitting on the ball. That’s an unlikely scenario, of course, given how well New England is playing right now. The Patriots’ defense is stellar, but it is better against the run than the pass. They rank fifth in the former department and in the middle of the pack in the latter. Jackson should be able to take advantage, while also capitalizing on what will be surprisingly benign mid-December conditions in Baltimore on Sunday night. The former NFL MVP has exceeded this 212.5 number in 2 of the past 3 contests and the only reason why didn’t last weekend is because Baltimore made quick 24-0 work of Cincinnati.
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