Ricky Dimon
Sunday Night Football in Week 5 of the NFL season pits the New England Patriots against the Buffalo Bills in an AFC East showdown. These may be the top 2 teams in the division, but it’s not exactly a real race for the title at this point – nor is it expected to become. Buffalo is undefeated at 4-0, while New England comes in with a 2-2 record.
Here is my Same Game Parlay for the festivities, which get underway at 8:20 pm ET on NBC. Also be sure to check out our full Patriots vs Bills predictions.
Bills -8.5 (-108)
Josh Allen anytime touchdown scorer (-125)
Rhamondre Stevenson to record 40+ rushing yards (+142)
Parlay odds: +814
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen scoring a touchdown would obviously work well with a Bills win and cover. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with backing New England running back Rhamondre Stevenson to rack up his fair share of yards. But even if he does, there is no reason why the home team can’t take care of business. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
Bills -8.5 (-108)
Only 1 of the Bills’ 4 games has been more competitive than a 9-point margin. It is true that spreads of more than a touchdown in the NFL are dangerous, as we saw last week (Buffalo failed to cover –15.5 in a 31-19 victory over the New Orleans Saints). However, -15.5 is a lot different from -8.5 and facing arguably the worst team in the entire league from a different conference is a lot different from going up against a division rival. In other words, the Bills should be far more inspired in Week 5 and ready to go following what was somewhat of a wakeup call against the Saints. Meanwhile, New England could be primed for letdown now that it is feeling itself a bit following a blowout of the Carolina Panthers. Prior to that, though, the Patriots were scoring just 16.7 point per game – not a number that is anywhere close to being able to keep up with the high-powered Bills.
Josh Allen anytime touchdown scorer (-125)
Allen is the reigning NFL MVP and he is playing like it once again in 2025. The 29-year-old has already rushed for 159 yards and 3 touchdowns to go along with 964 passing yards and 7 scores through the air. Although Allen is getting plenty of help from Cook and others, he often takes matters into his own hands. There is no reason why the former Wyoming standout can’t find the endzone himself on Sunday. He has delivered 3 rushing TDs in his last 4 outings against New England.
Rhamondre Stevenson to record 40+ rushing yards (+142)
Stevenson is sharing carries in the Patriots’ backfield with TreVeyon Henderson, but Stevenson has gotten slightly more work and has been a little bit more productive. The Oklahoma product has been fed the rock 31 times to Henderson’s 25 and he is averaging 4.0 yards per attempt to Henderson’s 3.7. Stevenson also has a lot more experience, which could be a factor in New England’s game-plan for this huge divisional contest. The 27-year-old churned out 60 yards and a touchdown in his lone outing against Buffalo in 2024. He should be in line for more success on Sunday given how the Bills’ defense is playing. They are #1 in the entire league against the pass but second-to-last against the run, giving up 164.3 yards per contest on 6.0 yards per carry.
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