Week 13 of the 2025 NFL campaign wraps up with a Monday Night Football showdown between the New York Giants and New England Patriots. It is a significant mismatch on paper given how each team has performed so far this season. New York comes in with a disastrous 2-10 record, while a red-hot New England squad is 10-2.
Here is my Same Game Parlay for the festivities, which get underway at 8:15 pm ET on ESPN. Also be sure to check out our full Giants vs Patriots predictions.
Patriots -9.5 alternate spread (+116)
TreVeyon Henderson to score a touchdown (-120)
TreVeyon Henderson to record 100+ rushing yards (+410)
Parlay odds: +914
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is the entire plan here, as New England running back TreVeyon Henderson having a huge day at the office would obviously work well with the Patriots winning big. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
Patriots -9.5 alternate spread (+116)
Having head coach Mike Vrabel fall into their lap when the Titans ridiculously fired him (how’s that working out in Tennessee?!?!) and drafting quarterback Drake Maye in 2024 has the Patriots on the fast track to success. They are in prime contention for the #1 seed in the AFC and Maye has been in the MVP discussion throughout the 2025 campaign. The North Carolina product leads the league in passing yards (3,130), is fourth with 21 touchdown passes and ranks second in QBR. New England could not be a more well-rounded squad, too, as its defense is also fantastic. It is top 10 in overall defensive EPA and #2 against the run (87.7 yards per game allowed). Whereas the Pats have won 9 games in a row, the Giants have lost 6 straight. Rookie QB Jaxson Dart is back, but he has endured all kinds of concussion issues this year and New York – since it has long since been eliminated from playoff contention – should take a conservative approach with him. Dart probably isn’t going to be running all of the field on Monday night. Give me the home team to prevail by double-digits.
TreVeyon Henderson to score a touchdown (-120)
The Giants’ defense imploded late in their Week 12 game at Detroit and coughed up a 10-point fourth-quarter lead before falling in overtime. That led to the firing of coordinator Shane Bowen. That’s not necessarily a bad decision, but it probably won’t lead to improvement in the short term. Whatever the situation with the coaching carousel, New York has little chance of containing Henderson and the Patriots’ ground attack. Henderson has scored 5 touchdowns (4 rushing, 1 receiving) in the past 3 games and the G-Men have allowed the most rushing TDs in the entire NFL (17, tied with Buffalo).
TreVeyon Henderson to record 100+ rushing yards (+410)
Just how bad is the Giants’ run defense? It is dead last in the league in that department, giving up an absurd 157.2 yards per game. New York is also #32 of 32 in yards per rushing attempt allowed at a bloated 5.9. No other team is surrendering more than 5.3 yards per carry. Henderson should be able to take full advantage. The former Ohio State standout ran all over the Bucs for 147 yards in Week 10, so he is clearly capable of posting a big number. It should also be noted that Henderson has gotten 14, 14, 19 and 18 carries in the last 4 outings; backfield mate Rhamondre Stevenson has been effective in just 1 game this entire year and got only 6 carries in last Sunday’s victory over Cincinnati.
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