Week 11 of the 2025 NFL season will begin with a showdown in the AFC East between the New York Jets and New England Patriots on Thursday Night Football. To say that these 2 division rivals are going in different directions would be a gross understatement. New York (2-7) is well on its way to once again missing the playoffs, while New England boasts an 8-2 record.
Here is my Same Game Parlay for the festivities, which get underway at 8:15 pm ET on Amazon Prime. Also be sure to check out our full Jets vs Patriots predictions. I cashed a +753 SGP on the Eagles vs Packers MNF game, so let’s keep the momentum going!
Jets +10.5 alternate spread (-102)
Under 41.5 alternate spread (+102)
Drake Maye Under 241.5 passing yards (-113)
Parlay odds: +445
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is the entire plan here, as New England quarterback Drake Maye being held in check would obviously work well with both a New York cover and the under. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
Jets +10.5 alternate spread (-102)
From out of nowhere, the Jets have won 2 games in a row. I don’t think they will make it 3 straight on Thursday, but staying within 10 points of the Patriots is well within reason. Head coach Aaron Glenn’s club came close to winning some games earlier in the season and it finally put things all together during recent victories over Cincinnati and Cleveland. Obviously beating those 2 unspectacular AFC North foes is nothing special, but…it’s something. Despite the recent departures of tackle Quinnen Williams and cornerback Sauce Gardner, New York’s defense actually looked pretty good in Week 10. It sacked Browns QB Dillon Gabriel 6 times and held Cleveland to an anemic 4 yards per play. If the Jets perform like that again on Thursday, they will at least keep this contest somewhat close.
Under 41.5 alternate total (+102)
This is a division-rivalry matchup between 2 teams that obviously know each other inside and out and are playing on a short week. It’s a recipe for the kind of ugly, low-scoring slog that we often witness on Thursday Night Football. That’s why I like both the Jets and the under. The visitors probably wouldn’t be able to keep up with New England in a high-scoring shootout, but they can certainly cover if they also keep this game under the total. The Jets are #26 or worse in passing offense (dead last), EPA per pass, passing touchdowns and completion percentage. Now they have to face a Patriots defense that is top 5 in all of those same categories. Fortunately for New York, its defense is showing signs of life.
Drake Maye Under 241.5 passing yards (-114)
This is not really a knock on Maye – after all, he is the current betting favorite to win NFL MVP. On sheer volume alone, he may not be able to exceed this number. Although we need the Jets to stay relatively close in order to cash the first leg, I think everyone believes that the Patriots will be playing from ahead much if not all of the way in this contest. As such, the likely game script will call for the home team to keep the ball on the ground and run the clock. It’s actually a sensible strategy against the Jets regardless of what the scoreboard says. New York #25 league wide against the run, giving up 138.2 yards per game on 4.6 yards per carry. It is #8 against the pass, holding opponents to a mere 190.8 yards per game on 6.8 yards per attempt.
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