Andrew Wilsher
Buckle up, ladies and gentlemen, the first NFL Sunday slate of the year has arrived! Okay, so we may no longer get “7 hours of commercial-free football”, but NFL Week 1 still promises to deliver some thrilling matchups as the 2025 season really cranks it up a gear. Among the matchups to get excited for are divisional battles with Bucs vs Falcons, Lions vs Packers and 49ers vs Seahawks. And here at Pickswise, we’ve got you covered on all of them! You can find out our NFL picks for EVERY Week 1 matchup, but right now, we’re breaking down our NFL best bets from our experts. Let’s dive in.
NFL best bet: Buccaneers -2 over Falcons (-110)
Odds available at bet365 at time of publishing.
The 2 teams likely fighting it out for the NFC South title in 2025 begin the season at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have won the division championship in 4 straight seasons as they look to continue that domination against the Atlanta Falcons. The Bucs are playing with double-revenge on their minds after losing twice to the Falcons in 2024.
However, the one player who slayed Tampa Bay in each victory won’t be suiting up as veteran QB Kirk Cousins has been replaced by last season’s 7th overall draft pick, Michael Penix, Jr. Cousins threw 4 touchdown passes in each of the 2 victories over Tampa Bay, but Penix will be given the opportunity to lead Atlanta’s offense this season. Penix started the final 3 games of last season, beating the Giants at home before losing consecutive overtime contests to the Commanders and Panthers. In his 3 starts, the University of Washington standout was intercepted once in each game, while throwing for a career-high 312 yards in the Week 18 home defeat to Carolina.
Tampa Bay QB Baker Mayfield has eclipsed the 4,000-yard passing mark twice in his career, coming in both seasons with the Buccaneers. Following a 4,044-yard performance in 2023, Mayfield topped that number by tossing 4,500 yards and 41 touchdowns to lead Tampa Bay to 10 victories in 2024. The Bucs were profitable away from Raymond James Stadium last season, putting together a 5-3 straight-up and against the spread mark. Tampa Bay won 3 of 4 games as a road favorite with the lone loss coming at Dallas in Week 16.
The Falcons compiled a 3-6 ATS mark at home, including a defeat in their only opportunity as an underdog against the Chiefs in a Week 3 Sunday Night Football setback, 22-17. Penix looks to be the future of this Falcons’ franchise, facing the Bucs for the first time. After Cousins had his way with Tampa Bay twice last season, the Bucs should be thrilled to see another face under center for Atlanta.
Read our full Buccaneers vs Falcons predictions
NFL best bet: Packers ML over Lions (-130)
Odds available at Fanatics Sportsbook at time of publishing.
After a long and eventful offseason, the 2025 NFL season is finally here. While the Week 1 card features a couple of massive games — including an AFC Divisional Round rematch in Buffalo — the marquee game of the day for my money comes in the NFC North, where we’ll see the Detroit Lions take on the Green Bay Packers in what should be a spectacle at Lambeau Field. This is a pivotal early-season clash as it relates to NFC North divisional positioning down the road, plus potential playoff seeding implications. While the Lions were 15-2 a year ago, I’m all in on this Packers team in 2025 and that starts with this weekend.
The Packers were already a team that I was looking to back early and often this season, and that impulse only got stronger once Green Bay acquired Micah Parsons for an aging Kenny Clark and a pair of first-round picks. Parsons was questionable for this game initially, but he is expected to make his debut in Green and Yellow on Sunday, and that could be the deciding factor in this contest. The Packers are a team that desperately needs to generate more pressure on the opposing quarterback, and with Parsons now part of a revamped defensive front, Green Bay should be able to make life difficult for Jared Goff and force him to make a couple of costly mistakes in a hostile road environment.
However, the real edge for Green Bay in this matchup is on the other side of the ball, where the Packers’ solid offensive line is going up against a Detroit defensive line that will be without Levi Onwuzurike and Za’Darius Smith. Look for Green Bay to establish the run early and open up the play-action pass game for Jordan Love, who has all of the tools to finally put it together in his 3rd season as a starter in Matt LaFleur’s system. I’ll take Green Bay on the money line.
Read our full Lions vs Packers predictions
NFL best bet: Texans +3 over Rams (-110)
Odds available at Fanatics Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Each of these teams went 10-7 and won a first-round playoff game last year, but oddsmakers have the Los Angeles Rams as a solid 3-point favorite over the Houston Texans here for their Week 1 matchup. I get some of the reasons to be skeptical of Houston, but that’s way too many points for me here, considering the Rams have plenty of question marks of their own. Matthew Stafford has barely been seen or heard from all offseason, and even though he’s apparently going to start here, there’s no way he’s at 100 percent physically after barely practicing all training camp. And the Rams also don’t have much of a home-field advantage to speak of.
CJ Stroud had his ups and downs last year, but people have been way too quick to forget how electric he was as a rookie. A tiny bit of a sophomore slump isn’t anything to panic about, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if he takes a 3rd-year leap and again looks like one of the league’s best quarterbacks. The Texans have a new OC now in Nick Caley, and it’s clear that Stroud and old OC Bobby Slowik just didn’t see eye to eye.
Los Angeles made somewhat of a splash by bringing in Davante Adams this offseason, but he’ll turn 33 this season and I’m not sure how much of a difference maker he is at this stage of his career. I wouldn’t consider him an upgrade over Cooper Kupp, who they let walk. Their O-line is so-so and the defence is still very young. I like the Texans both on the point spread and the money line here.
Read our full Texans vs Rams predictions
