NFL Best Bets

The Rams and Eagles are both advancing to the Divisional Round, but that doesn’t mean they both looked stellar in the Wild Card. Philadelphia capitalized on many Green Bay mistakes, and to their credit their defense was superb. Philly allowed just 5 yards per play, and of course the havoc they caused was part of Green Bay’s 4 turnovers. Jordan Love was rushed, hit 5 times and sacked twice, under constant duress from the onset of the match. Love also threw 2 horrid balls that turned into easy interceptions for the Eagles. By game’s end, the Packers outgained the Eagles 302-290 and went 7-13 on 3rd down. By comparison, Philly was just 2-11. After taking a 10-0 lead in the first quarter, the Eagles only scored 12 more points, and for stretches their offense was anemic. The Eagles punted in 4 straight drives from the start of the 2nd quarter to halfway through the 3rd, unable to close the door on a Green Bay team that mirrored preseason form. Only when the Packers scored did Jalen Hurts and his teammates respond. Their defense kept the Packers at bay when it mattered most, but there’s cause for concern with Philly’s stuttering offense. And the truth is, they haven’t been consistently elite all year (10th in yards per game, 17th in red-zone TD rate).

On the other side, we were very impressed by the Rams. Many Rams players had personal connections with the LA fires, including quarterback Matt Stafford. NFL schedulers changed their location, and the distraction of the fires had to interfere with their planning and preparation. It mattered not. Against a program with one of the NFL’s best records, the Rams were the aggressors from the start, scoring a touchdown on their opening drive (7 plays, 70 yards) and harassing Sam Darnold as soon as he stepped on the field. The Rams sacked Darnold a whopping 9 times for 82 yards lost, a result of a young, hungry defensive line that’s peaking at the right time. Stafford was sharp as a tack, 19/27 for 202 yards and 2 touchdowns, and their run game was formidable when it needed to be. In the end, it was a dominant performance and message to the rest of the NFC: Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford are a deadly combination that’s won a Super Bowl before; don’t think it can’t happen again.

Philadelphia will present a sloppy environment for this Sunday showdown but we fear not for the visiting Rams. Sure, they’re used to sunny Los Angeles and typically perfect southern California weather, but they also have veteran leaders who have been through it all. They also have McVay and Stafford, who can execute high-level offenses as good as any pairing in the NFL. Saquon Barkley is the Eagles’ ace in the hole, but even if they consistently run him down LA’s throat all-game, we doubt the Eagles can pull away.

Rams vs Eagles prediction: Rams +6 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 5.

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Perhaps the most anticipated game of the Divisional Round is the showdown of the NFL’s top-2 MVP candidates. After scintillating performances by both programs last weekend, the Ravens and Bills will meet for a 2nd time this season. Our only other relevant reference point was their Week 4 battle, a clash where the Ravens dominated the visiting Bills from start to finish. They almost doubled the Bills in total yards (427 to 236), and Derrick Henry looked like Emmitt Smith (24 carries, 199 yards, 1 touchdown). Of course, the Bills also caught the Ravens at a bad time; Baltimore lost in their home opener to the Raiders 2 weeks prior, so they had extra motivation to display a perfect performance. 

That still doesn’t mean that the same thing will happen this Sunday. After a humbling loss to the Rams in Week 14, Buffalo has looked just as impressive as any team in the NFL. Disregarding their Week 18 matchup where they rested starters in a close loss to New England, the Bills have put up 143 points in 4 straight wins (36 ppg), and that started with a 48-42 spectacular against a team that many think is the best in the league, the Detroit Lions. Buffalo’s defense was extremely stingy last Sunday, holding the Broncos to just 224 yards, 13 first downs, 7 points and just 2-9 on 3rd-down conversions. We consider Sean Payton to be one of the premier play-callers in the NFL, so that’s no small feat. 

Still, the Ravens looked unstoppable in the Wild Card Round, against a division foe that’s seen them three times. Todd Monken is no longer calling plays for the Ravens and it appears they’ve learned from past mistakes. Last year, Baltimore failed to stick to their best asset in the playoffs – their run game – and created a game plan that featured a plethora of passing. They don’t seem to be on that path this time. Last Saturday, Baltimore ran for 299 yards on a very formidable group (PFF ranked Pittsburgh as the NFL’s best defensive line), having little to no issue controlling the line of scrimmage. The Bills’ front seven has very high upside, but by all statistical standards, they’re a very mediocre group (19th in opponent yards per rush, 16th in opponent yards per pass). In Buffalo or not, we agree with the line movement.

Ravens vs Bills prediction: Ravens -1 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to 2.5.

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