NFL Best Bets

Here you will find our NFL best bets for every week of the 2022/23 season. Our experts sift through their NFL Picks and NFL Predictions to handpick the best NFL bets this week. 

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Experts
Buffalo Bills
Today
New England Patriots
Point Spread PickBest Bet
BUF Bills -4.5-110BUF Bills @ NE Patriots

FD No Sweat First Bet

The Bills come into this game having not covered in 5 straight. They did get a bit unlucky in not covering against Cleveland when the Browns scored on a meaningless final drive and then against Minnesota when the Vikings posted an incredible 4th-quarter comeback.

Let’s be honest; the Bills lines have been a bit inflated in general leading to this streak but this is the game that I believe the market has overreacted in the opposite direction. Let’s look at this with a recent market comparison for context. In Week 8 the Jets were +3 at home against New England and in Week 9 they closed at +10.5 at home against Buffalo. Of course, a few things have changed and you can argue the Bills are a bit worse now but in general this line should be closer to -5.5/-6 using this information. We are talking about a Bills team that closed at -2.5 in Kansas City earlier this season. To only have to lay 4.5 here I think is just flat wrong. I think we are finally getting the Bills at an attractive buy low spot.

We have zero proof that Bill Belichick can slow down Josh Allen and the Bills. If you exclude that extremely fluky hurricane level wind game from last season where the Bills were handcuffed on offense, the Bills have beaten New England by 30, 12, 29 points since late in 2020. New England’s defense ranks #1 in EPA but I think this Patriots defense is completely fraudulent when you examine it a bit further. The last 2 seasons have shown that they demolish poor offenses/QBs so much that completely inflates how mediocre they really are. This defense held poor/mediocre QBs in Jared Goff, Zach Wilson, Sam Ehlinger and Jacoby Brissett to their team’s worst or 2nd-worst offensive EPA performance all season. Against Detroit (without D’Andre Swift and most of the WR corps in an outdoor Jared Goff game), the Jets and the Colts, the Patriots held those offenses to 3 of the 6 worst EPA games of any team the entire season. At the same time, they allowed good offenses like the Vikings, Bears and Ravens to post a top-4 offensive performance for those teams this season and the Ravens and Bears both posted their 2nd-best offensive game all season against this Patriots defense. 

We saw Mac Jones play probably his best game of the season last week, but that was against a Vikings secondary dealing with multiple CB injuries and one that ranks dead last in yards per attempt allowed on the season. It was also in a controlled environment in the dome which helps a weaker-armed QB like Jones. Now he has to go back outdoors, where the wind shouldn’t be horrible but there could be gusts near 35 mph. And he will be facing a Bills defense that will get a full allotment of snaps out of star CB Tre’davious White after his 15 snap season debut last week. The Bills do lose Von Miller, but they should get Greg Rosseau back at DE to help lessen that blow. Jones has not been good this year and last week was only the 2nd positive EPA performance all season for him. The other positive EPA game came against a Steelers defense without TJ Watt and one that ranks 27th in yards per attempt allowed through the air. This Bills defense sits 10th in ypa allowed and 7th in DVOA against the pass. It’s Jones’ stiffest test all season outside of the 2 games against the Jets, in which he produced -0.08 and -0.03 EPA per drop-back performances. With RB Damien Harris out for this game, I think this is a tough matchup for Jones.

*Bills -4.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to -5.5.*

— Point-spread write-up by Clevta

Sportsbook
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$18.70

Antes de hacer una apuesta, comprueba las cuotas en la web de las casas de apuestas para asegurarte de que contiene las selecciones correctas.

Clevta
Cleveland Browns
Sun Dec 4
Houston Texans
Point Spread PickBest Bet
HOU Texans +7.0-110CLE Browns @ HOU Texans

FD No Sweat First Bet

I’m sure a lot of you are thinking this person must be nuts for making the Texans his “best bet” of the week. Well sure, if you do what I do for a living you have to be a little crazy, but this bet does have some logic behind it so please let me explain. First of all, this is the Super Bowl for Houston. Obviously, Deshaun Watson will dominate the narrative this week, and rightfully so, but personally I see a lot of variance with this situation. Sunday will be Watson’s first professional football game in 700 days, having last played in the final week of the 2020 regular season with the Texans. The ceiling is much higher than Jacoby Brissett, but early in his tenure, I also believe the floor is much lower while Watson rounds into game form. If you believe he will hit the ground running and show no rust at all, then this bet isn’t for you. The game plan here seems relatively simple for Kevin Stefanski, get the run game going early and try to get Watson comfortable.

Houston’s defense is 25th in schedule-adjusted efficiency this season and 30th in DVOA against the rush, however, Cleveland is ranked 27th and 31st in those same categories, so it’s fair to say Kyle Allen will show much better in his 2nd start, and Dameon Pierce could also be in store for a big game. Since 2017 when the Browns went winless, there’s only been 1 other team in the NFL that has posted fewer than 2 wins in the regular season (2020 Jaguars). Houston currently has just 1 win (and 1 tie) to their name with only 6 games left on their schedule, and while I’m not advocating playing the money line in this specific spot, I would not be surprised if Houston stole another win down the stretch, especially considering the record number of 1-score games in the league this season. With all the craziness that’s happened already would it really surprise you if Houston covered or won this game outright? I didn’t think so. Not so crazy anymore, I guess.

Texans +7 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number

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$19.43

Antes de hacer una apuesta, comprueba las cuotas en la web de las casas de apuestas para asegurarte de que contiene las selecciones correctas.

Jared Smith
Denver Broncos
Sun Dec 4
Baltimore Ravens
Game Totals PickBest Bet
Under 38.5-110DEN Broncos @ BAL Ravens

Given the way the Broncos games have gone this season, you have to expect a low game total and, in all likelihood, a desire to bet the under. Denver is scoring an average of just 14.3 points per game and their defense is allowing an average of just 17.6 points. The under is 10-1 in their games this season and there is nothing to indicate their offense will play any better. Could their defense play worse? If you’ve watched them allow 20-plus points to the Raiders and Panthers over the last two weeks, your answer to this might be yes. But not to the point where we’re expecting to see Baltimore throw up a 40-spot on them.
As for the Ravens’ defense this year, aside from their meltdown last week against Jacksonville, it is difficult to imagine the Broncos putting up any points this week.

Their play-calling has been atrocious, Russell Wilson has been ineffective, they’re relying on Latavius Murray to lead their backfield and there is clear dissension within this team and organization. Their ability to score on a strong defense seems unlikely. Maybe a field goal or a garbage-time touchdown, but no more than that.
There is probably more of a scare of a back-door cover than there is of these two teams putting up big points. If anything, the Ravens are certainly capable of three or four touchdowns but the Broncos are not. A 31-7 game gives us a push, but if we believe the Denver defense doesn’t pull a disappearing act, we can probably expect a few points less from Baltimore.

Under 38.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

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$19.09

Antes de hacer una apuesta, comprueba las cuotas en la web de las casas de apuestas para asegurarte de que contiene las selecciones correctas.

Howard Bender
Pittsburgh Steelers
Sun Dec 4
Atlanta Falcons
Point Spread PickBest Bet
ATL Falcons +1.0-110PIT Steelers @ ATL Falcons

FD No Sweat First Bet

It might not be the most highly anticipated matchup on the Week 13 docket, but I can’t wait to see the Atlanta Falcons take on the Pittsburgh Steelers. I like what Arthur Smith is building in Atlanta, and I’ve got to take the Falcons at home. Let’s not get too excited about the Steelers beating a pathetic Colts team on Monday Night Football, and I don’t know why the line shifted by a couple of points in Pittsburgh’s favor after that game. Atlanta might not be great but they aren’t nearly as anemic as Indy is on offense. The Falcons will surprise some people with how well they can move the ball, and if they hadn’t blown it at the goal-line in the final minute last week they would have beaten Washington on the road.

They’re still very much in the thick of the NFC South race, and I think they’ll have some more success running the ball this week . Kenny Pickett still hasn’t shown much at all, and the rookie signal-caller has 8 interceptions against 3 touchdowns. He’s also taken 17 sacks over his past 4 games, so Atlanta’s usually non-threatening pass-rush might be able to get home. The Falcons could easily be a lot better than 5-7 if they hadn’t choked away a few games late, and last week I was once again impressed with their offense even though the scoreboard shows only 13 points. They have 4 guys with at least 347 rushing yards, and it’s not often a team can say something like that.

Falcons +1 available at time of publishing. Playable to pick ’em.

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$18.70

Antes de hacer una apuesta, comprueba las cuotas en la web de las casas de apuestas para asegurarte de que contiene las selecciones correctas.

Andrew Ortenberg
Kansas City Chiefs
Sun Dec 4
Cincinnati Bengals
Point Spread PickBest Bet
KC Chiefs -1.5-110KC Chiefs @ CIN Bengals

FD No Sweat First Bet

From just a football fan standpoint, this game could be the highlight of all the Week 13 games. Patrick Mahomes versus Joe Burrow has everyone’s attention and this being a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship game only fuels the fires of excitement. On top of that, both quarterbacks are getting primary weapons back as Mahomes will have JuJu Smith-Schuster back on the field while Burrow gets his best buddy Ja’Marr Chase back after a four-game absence.

Last season’s victory for the Bengals was a hard-fought 27-24 battle and we expect this game to be just as close. The Chiefs’ defense ranks 18th in DVOA both against the run and the pass, so expecting them to keep the Bengals at bay is going to be tough. Joe Mixon is expected to clear concussion protocol which gives Burrow the supportive ground game he needs and with the Chiefs allowing 233.5 passing yards per game with 22 passing touchdowns allowed (second-highest in the league), you have to expect a heavy workload for Chase, Tee Higgins and, if available, Tyler Boyd.

But the Chiefs aren’t the only team with defensive struggles. Cincinnati has dealt with several injuries to their secondary and they’ve actually allowed an average of 231.3 passing yards per game over their last three, a number that is close to 30 yards per game higher than their season-long average. With Isiah Pacheco now leading the Chiefs backfield and having Smith-Schuster, Travis Kelce, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and a developing Skyy Moore available, they should be able to not just keep pace with the Bengals, but best them and avenge last season’s loss. The Bengals may be 8-3 against the spread this year, but in a game with a spread this low, it’s about who wins.

Chiefs -1.5 available at time of publishing. Playable at that number.

Sportsbook
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$19.09

Antes de hacer una apuesta, comprueba las cuotas en la web de las casas de apuestas para asegurarte de que contiene las selecciones correctas.

Howard Bender
NFL Best Bets
60.6%
Strike Rate
40Wins
26Losses
0Pushes
Percentage only includes Wins and Losses

At Pickswise we conduct extensive research across every morsel of NFL action throughout the season to bring to you our free NFL best bets.

Although the NFL regular season is just 18 weeks long, there are still 272 regular-season NFL games to decipher, as well as the NFL playoffs, and we bring you free daily picks for every game on the slate.

Our expert NFL tipsters, post an NFL prediction for every game of the season which includes a pick on the over/under market for each game. Each of our selections is given a confidence rating ranging from 1 to 3 stars, with 3 stars being the most confident, 1 the least.

In addition to our confidence ratings, NFL Bettors like to know what our most confident selections are, and our NFL Best Bets page details just that, with our  NFL Best Bets on this week’s games.

NFL Best Bets Today

Find all of our Best NFL bets today, right here on our NFL Best Bets page.

There are countless ways in which you can wager on an NFL game and with up to 16 matches a week and at times, 14 games on a Sunday, being selective in your wagering is one of the most important aspects in achieving long-term betting success.

While our NFL tipsters spend hours researching and analyzing every game of the NFL season to bring you the top free NFL picks and predictions for every game of the season, we also highlight our Best NFL Bets today right here.

With all of our best bets on today’s NFL games, the NFL Best Bets page should be your first port of call alongside the NFL Picks page where you can find the entirety of our game previews which combine for a comprehensive view of all of today’s NFL games and best bets.

Best Bets For NFL This Week

The NFL is very much a look ahead sport, particularly within sports betting. Almost as soon as this week’s games are done, oddsmakers and bettors alike are already trying to find the best bets for NFL this week. Here at Pickswise, we’re no different. You can often find great value early in the week and our experts will take an early look ahead every week, and aim to get our best bets for NFL this week posted on site as soon as possible, to try lock in those best lines and odds. Be sure to keep an eye on the NFL best bets page early on every game week throughout the season.

Where Should I Wager On Your NFL Best Bets Today

There are many ways in which you can wager on our Best NFL bets today, with sportsbooks all vying to offer the most competitive odds, you must compare odds and markets to seek out the best value with all NFL best bets.

With all of our NFL picks and predictions, along with our NFL best bets, NFL parlays, and NFL prop bets, we post the best odds and the sportsbook offering those odds next to our selections.

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