We’re almost 75% of the way through the NFL regular season, as Week 11 is underway following New England’s win over the New York Jets on Thursday Night Football. Now, our attention turns to Sunday’s loaded NFL slate, which kicks off at 9:30am ET in Madrid, Spain when the Washington Commanders play the Miami Dolphins. The 1:00pm ET window is full of intriguing matchups, headlined by Tampa Bay’s trip to Buffalo, while the 4:00pm ET window is jam-packed with divisional matchups like Seahawks vs. Rams and Ravens vs. Browns. Last but certainly not least, a potential NFC Championship preview between the Detroit Lions and the Philadelphia Eagles will be front and center on Sunday Night Football.
Here at Pickswise, we have you covered on EVERY GAME on the Week 11 menu! You can find our NFL picks for EVERY side and total, and tail our expert handicappers – who collectively boast a 162-134-2 record so far this season! But for now, let’s break down our NFL best bets from our top experts.
NFL Best Bet: Miami Dolphins -2.5 over Washington Commanders (-115)
Odds available at bet365 the time of publishing.
The NFL’s International Series will continue on Sunday with a showdown in Madrid, Spain between the Washington Commanders and Miami Dolphins. Washington was supposed to be a Super Bowl contender following last season’s breakout run to the NFC title game, but life comes at you quick in this league. The injury-plagued Commanders are 3-7 and find themselves once again without quarterback Jayden Daniels — this time because of a dislocated elbow. They have lost 5 straight games, including a ridiculous 4 in a row by at least 21 points.
It is true that the Commanders seem cooked, but already this season we have seen cooked teams rise from the dead. Case in point: the Dolphins. Head coach Mike McDaniel (yes, he is still employed!) suddenly has his squad playing hard and actually winning football games. Miami has won 2 of its last 3 outings, scoring at least 30 points in both of those victories over Atlanta and Buffalo. Th Fins were especially impressive during last weekend’s upset of the Bills, during which De’Von Achane erupted for 225 yards from scrimmaged and 2 touchdowns. Achane now faces a Washington defense that is #23 against the run (134.4 yards per game allowed) and is giving up 4.6 yards per carry (also #23 in the NFL). I can’t put max confidence on this game because the Dolphins are…the Dolphins. But I like them to cover.
Read our full Dolphins vs Commanders prediction
NFL Best Bet: Cincinnati Bengals +5.5 over Pittsburgh Steelers (-110)
Odds widely available at the time of publishing.
The Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers will collide for the second time this season when these 2 AFC North rivals meet again on Sunday afternoon, this time in Pittsburgh. This is a fantastic spot for Cincinnati. It is coming off a bye, whereas the Pittsburgh just got beat up by the Chargers on Sunday Night Football this past weekend. The Bengals have not lost by more than 5 points since Week 6; I expect that streak to continue. As such, my Bengals vs Steelers pick is for the visitors to cover.
Head coach Zac Taylor’s team just defeated the Steelers 33-31 in the first head-to-head matchup of 2025 on October 16. Joe Flacco lit up the scoreboard in that contest and he remains on an absolute roll, with an 11-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio in 4 games since being traded from the Browns. Aaron Rodgers, on the other hand, has been picked off 4 times in the last 4 games – including twice during the Steelers recent 25-10 setback against the Chargers. With some obvious occasional exceptions, rivalry matchups in the AFC North are often hard-nosed and competitive regardless of any discrepancies in talent. I will rarely give more than 3 points in such a situation, and there is no way I’m giving 5.5 in this particular instance.
We have best bets on the side and total in our Bengals vs Steelers prediction
NFL Best Bet: Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings Under 48.5 (-110)
Odds widely available at the time of publishing.
The first meeting between these 2 division rivals produced 51 points, but it’s worth diving deeper into that game. Chicago led 17-6 going into the fourth quarter before a whopping 28 points were scored in the final 12 minutes and 13 seconds. For the most part that matchup was a defensive struggle. I think the rematch could produce something similar, so my Bears vs Vikings pick is Under 48.5.
Minnesota has scored more than 22 points in a game only once since Week 3. Some of that can be pinned on Wentz, but McCarthy has also been unspectacular. The 2024 first-round draft pick did not do a whole lot even when he led his team to a comeback win over Chicago in the season opener, finishing with just 143 passing yards and 25 on the ground. The Vikings gained just 254 yards of total offense in that game. Things were not much better for the Bears, who amassed 317 yards and averaged just 5.0 yards per play. Running back D’Andre Swift has been dealing with a groin injury for several weeks and now he is also plagued by a hip issue. Swift is questionable for Sunday. Receivers Rome Odunze and DJ Moore are also questionable. All things considered, the over is took risky.
Don’t forget to check out our Bears vs Vikings predictions for picks on both side and total
NFL Best Bet: Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 over Denver Broncos (-114)
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Heading into mid-November, not many people thought the defending AFC champion Kansas City Chiefs would be sitting in 3rd place of the AFC West at 5-4. Now, they head to Denver as a road favorite against the division-leading Broncos. Kansas City has won 5 of its last 7 games since an 0-2 start, but looks to bounce back after dropping an AFC Championship rematch at Buffalo, 28-21 prior to its bye week. The Chiefs have failed to cover in their last 2 opportunities as a road favorite, with their last victory in this role coming in Week 3 against the Giants.
The Broncos started the season at 1-2, but have pulled off 7 straight victories. Five of the past 6 wins for Sean Payton’s team have come by 4 points or fewer, capped off by a 10-7 home triumph over the Raiders last Thursday. Four times in this stretch, Denver has trailed in the 4th quarter, including the ridiculous 33-32 comeback win over the Giants when the Broncos were down 19-0.
Denver has posted a 2-0-1 mark against the spread as an underdog this season, and is listed as a home ‘dog for the first time since Week 6 of 2024 against the Chargers. In both opportunities last season, the Broncos lost to L.A. and Pittsburgh when receiving points at home. Since 2020, the Chiefs have been a touchdown favorite or higher in 9 of the past 10 matchups. In last season’s finale, the Broncos blanked the Chiefs, 38-0 as 11.5-point home favorites, as most of Kansas City’s starters sat out.
Although the Broncos are 6-1 against the spread in the last 7 meetings with the Chiefs, many of those covers came as a heavy underdog. This pointspread is telling us that Kansas City is the right side here as a road favorite to bounce back from the loss at Buffalo.
Find our full Chiefs vs Broncos prediction
NFL Best Bet: Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 over Detroit Lions (-114)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
It wasn’t a pretty game, but the Eagles survived Lambeau Field and came out the victors in a big time NFC battle this past Monday night. It doesn’t get any easier for the Super Bowl champions as they travel back home to face the Detroit Lions, who looked as explosive and potent ever under Dan Campbell’s direction as their new play-caller. In an absolute thrashing, the Lions gained 546 yards on eight yards per play and dropped 44 points on the Commanders while the 47th president of the United States was in attendance. It was a display of how great Detroit can be when all is in-sync, especially off a loss. Dan Campbell’s incomparable record of 13-0 against the spread following a straight up loss earned another stripe this past Sunday.
Of course, while the Philadelphia offense left much to be desired, their defense looked better than it had all season in Week 10. Against a Packers offense that is as talented as any in the NFL, Philly held Green Bay to just 261 total yards and four yards per pass. New addition Jaelan Phillips contributed four solo tackles and six defensive stops, already becoming a crucial part of their operation. The Eagles also sacked Jordan Love 3 times and left him lost on most plays, scrambling to find an open receiver against the Eagles’ top-tier secondary. Philly also held Josh Jacobs to just 74 yards on the ground.
Returning home to the warm embrace of a raucous Philadelphia crowd, the Eagles have a better spot since the Lions are now on their second straight road game in 13 days. Amazingly, although both have been at the top of the NFC conference for a few years now, the Eagles and Lions haven’t collided since 2022, so there’s not much we can glean from the previous battle. What we can say is that, while Campbell’s new play calling role is interesting and the Lions are always a formidable threat, this Sunday night isn’t the same situation. The Eagles are healthy and look as focused as they ever have, while the Lions’ secondary just got another dose of the injury bug last weekend (Terrion Arnold left with a concussion). We’re siding with the champs in what should be a highly entertaining contest.
Here are our Eagles vs Lions predictions for SNF
Click here to add us to your Google preferred sources and never miss a story
