With Houston’s upset win over Buffalo on Thursday Night Football, Week 12 is here – which means we are about three-fourths of the way through the NFL regular season. Time flies when you’re having fun, as they say! There are no international games this week, so Sunday’s NFL action kicks off at 1:00pm ET and is headlined by Pittsburgh’s trip to Chicago, Minnesota’s trip to Green Bay, and Indianapolis’ trip to Kansas City. In the 4:00pm ET window, Philadelphia heads to Dallas in an NFC East showdown, while Cleveland Browns rookie QB Shedeur Sanders makes his first regular season start in Las Vegas against the Raiders. Sunday’s slate is capped off with a massive NFC bout between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday Night Football.
Here at Pickswise, we have you covered on EVERY GAME on the Week 12 card! You can find our NFL picks for EVERY side and total, and tail our expert handicappers – who collectively boast a 179-146-3 record so far this season! But for now, let’s break down our NFL best bets from our top experts.
NFL Best Bet: Chicago Bears -2.5 over Pittsburgh Steelers (-115)
Odds widely available at the time of publishing.
The Chicago Bears have won 7 of their last 8 games heading into a home date with the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday afternoon. I’m hopping on the bandwagon, so my Bears vs Steelers pick is on the home side to win and cover. It is fair to say that the Bears have found their stride under first-year head coach Ben Johnson and second-year quarterback Caleb Williams. With Williams playing mistake-free football, D’Andre Swift balancing the offense by running the ball effectively and Johnson’s play-calling working its magic just as it did when he was offensive coordinator in Detroit, Chicago’s offense is humming. It is #4 overall (373.8 yards per game) and #8 in scoring (25.8 points per game). Williams has thrown only 4 interceptions to go along with his 16 total touchdowns (13 passing, 3 rushing).
Pittsburgh’s QB situation is far worse. On Sunday, the visitors will either be playing with a banged-up Aaron Rodgers or a backup in Mason Rudolph. Rodgers is questionable after sustaining minor fracture in his left wrist during last week’s victory over Cincinnati. It was announced on Tuesday that that injury will not require surgery. Whatever the case, neither Rodgers nor Rudolph inspires much confidence. On the other side of the ball, the Steelers’ defense is overrated. Everyone just assumes it is good since TJ Watt is on the field, but that is hardly the reality. Head coach Mike Tomlin’s team is #28 league wide in total defense and dead last against the pass. Its 33 sacks are good for third most in the NFL, but keep in mind that Williams is a mobile quarterback who can avoid pressure for the most part. At home against an unspectacular opponent, I feel great about Chicago maintaining momentum.
Read our full Steelers vs Bears prediction
NFL Best Bet: Minnesota Vikings +6.5 over Green Bay Packers (-110)
Odds widely available at the time of publishing.
The Vikings have been one of the biggest disappointments in the NFL this season at 4-6 with subpar quarterback play. Minnesota looks to bounce back from consecutive home losses to Baltimore and Chicago as the Vikings welcome the rival Packers to U.S. Bank Stadium on Sunday. The Packers rallied past the Giants last Sunday, 27-20 to improve to 6-3-1 and sit one-half game behind the Bears for first place in the NFC North.
Green Bay QB Jordan Love briefly exited Week 11 with a left shoulder injury, but returned and threw the go-ahead TD pass to Christian Watson with 4 minutes remaining to give the Pack the lead. The Packers closed as 7.5-point favorites, failing to cover for the 3rd straight game, while falling to 1-7 against the spread in the last 8 games. The 27 points scored against the Giants eclipsed Green Bay’s total of 20 points from the previous 2 games combined in losses to Carolina and Philadelphia.
Minnesota tries to turn around its struggling offense after getting held to 19 points against Baltimore and 17 points in last Sunday’s two-point loss to the Bears. The Vikings look to finish road division play at 3-0 after winning at Chicago in Week 1 and stunning Detroit in Week 9. QB J.J. McCarthy threw a pair of interceptions and finished 16-of-32 for 150 yards against Chicago, as his interception total is up to 5 in the last 3 games.
The Vikings swept the Packers last season with both victories coming by 2 points each. Love is 1-3 in 4 career starts against Minnesota with 2 losses coming at Lambeau Field. In each of the last 2 weeks, Minnesota’s defense has limited both Chicago’s Caleb Williams and Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson to less than 200 yards passing. Let’s go with Minnesota here as a road underdog against Green Bay.
We have best bets on the side and total in our Vikings vs Packers prediction
NFL Best Bet: Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 over Indianapolis Colts (-102)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM at the time of publishing.
Time is running out for Kansas City, even though the defending AFC champions have 8 games remaining. The Chiefs enter Week 12’s home showdown with the AFC South-leading Colts at 5-5, off a last-second loss to the Broncos last Sunday. Kansas City dropped 3.5 games behind Denver for first place in the AFC West, while the Chargers are wedged in between at 7-4.
Before we break down Kansas City’s recent breakdown, let’s not sell Indianapolis short. The Colts went from a quarterback controversy in the preseason to Daniel Jones taking over the position and playing like a Pro Bowler. Jones is 3rd in the NFL in passing yards with 2,659, which is 24 more yards than Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes. Indianapolis won 8 games last season, but has jumped out to an impressive 8-2 start to hold a 2-game advantage over Jacksonville in the AFC South.
The Chiefs have been solid at home, going 4-1 at Arrowhead Stadium with 4 consecutive wins since losing in the Super Bowl rematch to the Eagles in Week 2. Kansas City’s 4 home victories have come by double-digits, including 3 wins by 17 or more points. All 5 losses for the Chiefs this season are by 1 score, while each of Indy’s 2 defeats are by 7 points apiece.
Two of Indianapolis’ 8 wins have come against teams with winning records, beating the Chargers and Broncos. The Colts are looking to sweep the AFC West with a victory over Kansas City, but the Chiefs have won 9 consecutive games off a loss of 4 points or less since 2021. Indianapolis has topped the 31-point mark in 5 of the last 6 games, while Kansas City has allowed a total of 24 points in its past three home contests.
Find our full Chiefs vs Colts prediction
NFL Best Bet: Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5 over Arizona Cardinals (-122)
Odds available at FanDuel at the time of publishing.
The Arizona Cardinals have lost 7 of their last 8 games heading into a home date with the Jacksonville Jaguars during Week 12 of the NFL season on Sunday afternoon. Once 2-0, the Cardinals are now 3-7 and aren’t even looking competitive. They have dropped 2 consecutive contests by at least 19 points. Arizona is only a slight underdog against Jacksonville because it is playing at home, but does that really matter? Probably not! After all, the Cards have lost 4 home games in a row – including to the lowly Titans. Tennessee (1-9) has not won a single other game this entire year. This is simply a fantastic time to fade head coach Jonathan Gannon’s squad, so my Jaguars vs Cardinals pick is on the visitors to win and cover.
Jacksonville, on the other hand, is playing solid football. Its worst loss since Week 2 is against the Texans, but even a 1-possession setback on the road in Houston is nothing to be ashamed about. The Jaguars are coming off a 35-6 beatdown of the Chargers this past weekend. It is true that the Bolts’ offensive line is in absolute shambles, but that is still an extremely impressive result any way you slice it. The Jags churned out 192 rushing yards, which bodes well for their chances of finding success against a mediocre Cardinals defense. This is a tale of 2 teams going in opposite directions, and I think that trend will continue on Sunday.
Don’t forget to check out our Jaguars vs Cardinals prediction for picks on both side and total
NFL Best Bet: Los Angeles Rams -6.5 (-115) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
As of Week 12, the Bucs and Rams are heading in opposite directions. Los Angeles is off their 2nd straight win over a talented divisional opponent, surviving Seattle in a 21-19 battle where their defense forced Sam Darnold, who’s been one of the NFL’s most efficient quarterbacks, into 4 uncharacteristic turnovers. It was a less-than-stellar day from Matthew Stafford (15-28, 130 passing yards, 2 touchdowns) and the offense (12 first downs and 249 total yards). Still, it was another reminder of how complete and how well-coached the Rams are. They can also beat teams in myriad ways. Leading into this Sunday night, they rank 8th in total offensive EPA and 3rd in total defensive EPA metrics, a mark of one of the most talented and well-balanced programs in the NFL.
They also have a nice spot this Sunday night since it’s their second straight home game. The Bucs are in a much tougher position. Tampa Bay remains atop the NFC South mostly because of their rivals’ depressing results. It shouldn’t be forgotten that the Bucs, although early season darlings since they started 5-1, have lost against their most talented opponents. Their 6 wins are mostly against lowly or mid-tier competition (ATL, HOU, NYJ, SEA, SF, and NO).
Obviously, the Seahawks and 49ers would be the exception, although the latter was going through a terrible injury bug. Against better opponents (PHI, DET, NE, BUF), the Bucs haven’t been so fortunate. They also deserve an asterisk due to their own injuries, notably Bucky Irving and Hassan Reddick, who are both trending in the right direction leading into Week 12.
Still, the Bucs’ recent performances haven’t been up to par, especially on defense. They’ve lost 3 of their last 4 games, all against top-ten offenses. In those contests they allowed 96 combined points. That’s not a great sign for this matchup, particularly since the Rams have very similar metrics.
The data suggests the Bucs may be over their heads in this battle. The market thinks so, too. And since Tampa has plenty of room to clean up with easy wins in a weak division, we wonder how urgent this spot really is. The Bucs will want to get off the schneid and will probably fight hard early, but the Rams are the more complete team, in a great spot, and should be able to score at will on the visitors.
Here are our Buccaneers vs Rams predictions for SNF
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