After a thrilling Thursday night game between the Dallas Cowboys and the Detroit Lions, Week 14 is officially underway. It’s getting down to the wire in the NFL, as fantasy regular seasons wrap up and the push towards the playoffs both in fantasy and on the field intensifies. Sunday’s slate kicks off at 1:00 pm ET with 8 games, headlined by Bengals vs. Bills, Steelers vs. Ravens, and Colts vs. Jaguars. The 4:00 pm ET window consists of just 3 games, spearheaded by Bears vs. Packers, before the Texans make the trip to Arrowhead to play the Chiefs under the lights of NBC’s Sunday night Football.
Here at Pickswise, we have you covered on EVERY GAME on the Week 14 card! You can find our NFL picks for EVERY side and total, and tail our expert handicappers – who collectively boast a 206-177-3 record so far this season! But for now, let’s break down our NFL best bets from our top experts.
NFL Best Bet: Miami Dolphins -2.5 over New York Jets (-120)
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
It will be a showdown in the AFC East when the Miami Dolphins visit the New York Jets in Week 14 of the NFL season on Sunday afternoon. Once left for dead with head coach Mike McDaniel all but fired at 1-6, Miami has completely turned things around with 4 wins in its last 5 games. I expect that momentum to continue, so my Dolphins vs Jets pick is for the visitors to win and cover. The Dolphins failed to cover in last week’s victory at New Orleans, but they probably should have won by a lot more than 4 points — squandering almost the entirety of a 16-0 lead in the 2nd half.
It is true that the Fins are not very good on the road, but it’s not like MetLife Stadium is a difficult place to play. The Jets’ only home wins are over Atlanta and Cleveland, and they are 3-9 overall. It would not be out of bounds to argue that they should be — or at least could be — 0-12. New York beat Atlanta 27-24 this past weekend despite getting dominated in all phases of the game other than special teams. It scraped past Cleveland 27-20 while gaining 169 yards of total offense. Head coach Aaron Glenn’s squad outlasted Cincinnati 39-38 when the Bengals did not have Joe Burrow. Meanwhile, Miami’s 4-1 stretch includes a 30-13 rout of Buffalo. Although Tua Tagovailoa is not the most trustworthy quarterback, I will roll with him, De’Von Achane and Jaylen Waddle over anyone and anything the Jets can offer.
Read our full Dolphins vs Jets prediction
NFL Best Bet: Cleveland Browns -4 over Tennessee Titans (-110)
Odds widely available at the time of publishing.
The resistable force meets the movable object when the 1-11 Tennessee Titans make the trip to Cleveland to take on the 3-9 Browns, and the disastrous season should continue for the visitors. It’s been a rough first season for rookie quarterback Cam Ward, who has not thrown more than 1 touchdown pass in any game this season and has exceeded 200 passing yards just once in his last 4 games. He now comes up against a vicious Browns defense that has allowed the 3rd-fewest passing yards while posting the 2nd-most sacks in the NFL. Given the Titans have allowed the most sacks this season, Ward should be running for his life throughout this matchup. Tennessee’s offense has been totally anemic, scoring more than 20 points just once in its last 7 games, and given how stingy this Cleveland D has been, it’s hard to see the Titans having much success at all putting points on the board.
The Browns should win this one, but will they be good enough on offense to cover? They managed just 8 points against the 49ers last week, but Shedeur Sanders has at least been serviceable in his 2 starts while Quinshon Judkins has been hot in recent weeks. That spells bad news for a Titans defense that has allowed the 2nd-most rushing touchdowns, while through the air they’re allowing the 2nd-most passing yards per attempt. Tennessee has allowed 25+ points in 5 of their last 6 games, and this matchup should see the Browns moving the chains with a lot more ease than the Titans. Take Cleveland to win and cover.
We have bets on the side and total in our Titans vs Browns prediction
NFL Best Bet: Green Bay Packers -6.5 over Chicago Bears (-112)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
The two oldest rivals in the NFL have plenty on the line this Sunday at Lambeau Field. The Bears (9-3) lead the NFC North heading into Week 14 and will visit the Packers (8-3-1), who are playing their third consecutive division foe. Green Bay has passed the first two tests, handling Minnesota at home, 23-6, followed by a 31-24 triumph at Detroit as 3-point underdogs on Thanksgiving. Now, the Packers look for the trifecta to pass the Bears for first place in the division.
Chicago has been impressive in Ben Johnson’s first season as head coach, overcoming an 0-2 start to win 9 of the last 10 games. During this span, the Bears have won 6 games by 5 points or less, but put together a strong road effort in the 24-15 Black Friday victory at Philadelphia as 7.5-point underdogs. The Bears have covered 3 straight games and are 5-1 against the spread in the last 6 opportunities in the underdog role. These teams will meet twice in the next 3 weeks, and both matchups last season were decided by a combined 3 points. Green Bay won at Chicago, 20-19 as 6-point underdogs, but the Bears knocked off the Packers in the season finale at Lambeau, 24-22 as 10.5-point dogs.
Two of the worst offensive efforts for Green Bay came at home against Carolina and Philadelphia in consecutive losses in early November. The Packers combined for 20 points in those defeats, but Green Bay has averaged 27.0 ppg in the past 3 victories. Green Bay went through a 1-7 ATS slump before picking up covers against Minnesota and Detroit. In last Thursday’s win over the Lions, the Pack were paced by QB Jordan Love’s 4 TD passes, his 6th multi-touchdown performance of the season. Interestingly enough, Love has not thrown a touchdown pass in Green Bay’s last 3 home games. Let’s look at backing the Packers here to pass the Bears for first in the NFC North with a home victory.
Find our full Bears vs Packers prediction
NFL Best Bet: Las Vegas Raiders +7.5 over Denver Broncos (-110)
Odds available at BetMGM at the time of publishing.
We appear to have a major mismatch on our hands on Sunday in the AFC West when the Denver Broncos head to Las Vegas for a date with the reeling Raiders. Despite the fact that Las Vegas has just 2 wins on the season, the Raiders played a bit better against the Chargers a week ago, and they just covered against this same Broncos team in the previous meeting between these teams this season. Denver was a 9.5-point home favorite back on November 6 and nearly lost that game outright, as the Broncos mustered just 10 points in that matchup. When you adjust for the loss of home field (a fairly significant edge for the Broncos in the first meeting) this is a line that I make around Denver -6, so it’s hard to pass up the value we’re perceivably getting with Las Vegas as a home underdog of over a touchdown.
On one hand, the Raiders are one of the worst teams in football and shouldn’t be expected to score much on this excellent Denver defense. However, despite their gaudy record, I’m still not buying the Broncos offense, as Denver has been a pretty middling unit all season long despite facing an easy schedule of opposing defenses. That won’t be the case against a Las Vegas defense that fared very well against Nix in the first meeting between these teams, and the Raiders’ zone looks flummoxed the young Denver quarterback throughout that contest. There’s no reason to believe that Denver should be laying over a touchdown in this spot, especially since the Broncos haven’t covered the spread in this situation (road favorite of over a touchdown) at any point this season. Denver thrives in close games, but it also finds itself in a lot of 1-score games for a reason. Therefore, while the Raiders have been miserable for the majority of the campaign, I’ll back an ugly ‘dog to keep things within one possession on Sunday.
Don’t forget to check out our Broncos vs Raiders prediction for picks on both side and total
NFL Best Bet: Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs Under 42.5 (-115)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Unsurprisingly The Texans’ defense ranks 1st overall in opponent points (16.5) and yards (265.7) per game, and the Texans are top-2 in preventing third down conversions (33.77%). Needless to say, the Chiefs’ offense will face challenges on Sunday night. Overall Kansas City still qualifies as a top-tier operation, ranking #1 in overall EPA metrics, including top-4 marks in EPA per pass and EPA per rush. Those metrics are mostly due to a generational quarterback talent and one of the greatest playcallers in NFL history, a duo that’s been at the top since they joined forces seven years ago. But the Chiefs are not without their flaws.
Mahomes is getting sacked more than he ever has in his career, 27 times in just 12 games. Against good defenses he’s also been limited, throwing for just 240 yards per game and a lowly 61% completion percentage against the Chargers, Eagles, and Broncos. The Texans’ defense is the best or one of the best in nearly every conceivable metric against the pass, including a #1 rank in defensive EPA per pass and top-3 marks in opponent yards per pass (6.3) and completion percentage (58.4%). It doesn’t help that the Chiefs’ offensive line, which has grossly underperformed this year, is all banged up. Three out of 5 linemen are questionable, 2 are trending in the wrong direction. Kansas City’s rushing attack has been a middling operation all season, ranked 15th in yards per rush (4.4). Houston is just as stingy in run-defense, too (3rd in opponent rush yards per game).
We haven’t talked much about the Texans’ offense because we don’t believe we need to. CJ Stroud has been good, not great, and as a group they average 21.9 points per game (21st). At Arrowhead Stadium on a cold, blustery night, we don’t like their chances to overperform against Steve Spagnuolo’s defense, especially after their poor outing last week. There’s only one way we can look here.
Here are our Texans vs Chiefs picks for SNF
Click here to add us to your Google preferred sources and never miss a story
