NFL Best Bets for Week 16: Expert Picks for Buccaneers vs. Panthers, Patriots vs. Ravens and More

Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Bucky Irving

Andrew Wilsher

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Managing Editor of Pickswise. Born and raised in jolly old London, England, with an undying love for the NFL, NBA, soccer and horse racing. A big-time sports bettor who loves futures markets and backing underdogs. Long-suffering New York Jets fan. For Andrew Wilsher media enquiries, please email contact@pickswise.com.

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NFL Best Bet: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 over Carolina Panthers (-105)

Odds courtesy of BetMGM at the time of publishing.

Tampa Bay and Carolina enter Sunday’s critical NFC South matchup tied atop the division at 7-7. The Buccaneers have slumped down the stretch, dropping 5 of their last 6 games with the lone victory coming by 3 against the Cardinals in Week 13. Tampa Bay visits Bank of America Stadium against a Carolina squad that lost on a field goal in the final seconds of last Sunday’s 20-17 defeat at New Orleans. Carolina led New Orleans 17-7 late in the third quarter before the Saints scored the final 13 points of the game.

The Panthers are 5-1 off a loss this season. In the underdog role, Carolina has posted a solid 8-3 ATS mark, including a 4-1 ATS record at home. In their last home game, the Panthers stunned the Rams as 10.5-point underdogs 31-28 in their highest-scoring game of the season. Carolina has scored 61 points in its last 2 games off a loss, but has also allowed 55 points in those victories.

Tampa Bay needs to get on track fast, as the Buccaneers control their destiny with 2 meetings against the Panthers over the final 3 games. The Bucs shouldn’t be in this position, as they lost to 2 teams at home that are not headed to the playoffs – the Saints and Falcons. In fact, the Bucs are 0-6 ATS in the last 6 games, but have not been listed as a road favorite in this stretch. Tampa Bay is 2-0 SU/ATS in 2 opportunities when laying points away from Raymond James Stadium, winning at Atlanta and New Orleans. In the past 10 matchups, the Buccaneers are 9-1 against the Panthers, and QB Baker Mayfield has not lost to Carolina since taking over in 2023. The trends point towards Carolina, but this looks like the get-right game for Tampa Bay to save its season, so we’ll lay the points with the Bucs.

Read our full Bucs vs Panthers prediction

NFL Best Bet: Buffalo Bills -10 over Cleveland Browns (-115)

Odds available at Fanatics Sportsbook at the time of publishing.

The Buffalo Bills will try to build on a massive win over their AFC East rival Patriots when they visit the Cleveland Browns in Week 16 of the NFL season on Sunday afternoon. My Bills vs. Browns pick is for the visitors to win and cover. If there is one thing we learned from Week 15, it’s that big spreads are often not big enough. There are simply some awful football teams this year; one such team is the Browns. They are 3-11 and have lost 3 games in a row, including by 18 points to San Francisco and by a 31-3 margin at Chicago this past Sunday. Cleveland even lost to lowly Tennessee during this stretch. Rookie QB Shedeur Sanders has been better than Dillon Gabriel — but that’s not saying much. Head coach Kevin Stefanski’s squad is 3rd-to-last in total offense, and only Las Vegas is averaging fewer points per game than Cleveland.

There are also a lot of really good teams this year, including the Bills. They may not be where they want since the Patriots still lead the AFC East, but Josh Allen and company are 10-4 and coming off a huge road win at New England to keep their division-title hopes alive. At the very least, the Bills are well on their way to another playoff berth. These are simply 2 squads going in very different directions. As such, this is one of those double-digit spreads that still isn’t big enough. The Browns are 0-3 ATS in their last 3 overall and 2-5 ATS in the last 7 head-to-head meetings.

Don’t forget to check out our Bills vs Browns prediction for picks on both side and total

NFL Best Bet: Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 over Miami Dolphins (-115)

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook the time of publishing.

The Cincinnati Bengals head to Miami this Sunday for a matchup against the Dolphins, and both teams are already counting down the days until next season. Cincinnati had its season derailed when QB Joe Burrow exited its Week 2 game with a turf toe injury, but things haven’t been much better since he returned. After a big win over the Baltimore Ravens on Thanksgiving night, Cincinnati has dropped two in a row to the Bills and Ravens, and the Bengals weren’t even competitive last week against Baltimore, falling 24-0. Luckily for them, they’ll be going up against a 6-8 Dolphins team that just turned to rookie QB Quinn Ewers after head coach Mike McDaniels announced the benching of Tua Tagovailoa. Both teams are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, but I expect the Bengals will be the team with a stronger response after last week’s embarrassing defeat.

The ‘Phins started turning heads during their 4-game win streak, but 3 of those wins came against the Commanders, Saints and Jets. They showed little life in last week’s loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers after falling behind 28-3, but managed to score 2 garbage-time touchdowns. Additionally, the Bengals being shut out last week actually gives them a boost based on historical trends. Since 2015, teams that were shut out in the previous week are 35-17-3 against the spread in their next game and a perfect 5-0 ATS this season. This marked the Bengals’ first shutout with Burrow as the QB, and there’s no doubt in my mind that he’ll want to bounce back in a big way.Finally, McDaniel and the Dolphins have been awful on short rest; they’re just 3-10 since he took over, losing by 8.2 PPG. Although the Bengals have struggled this year, they’ll be up against a rookie QB in his first start after a disappointing loss; give me Cincinnati to win big on Sunday.

We have bets on the side and total in our Bengals vs Dolphins prediction

NFL Best Bet: Atlanta Falcons vs. Arizona Cardinals Under 48.5 (-115)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.

This is a quarterback matchup between Atlanta’s Kirk Cousins and Arizona’s Jacoby Brissett. Although both veterans clearly have at least a little bit left in the tank, neither one inspires a ton of confidence. You could maybe say that each one is solid, but they don’t provide any dynamic element to their respective offenses. That is part of the reason why my Falcons vs. Cardinals pick is Under 48.5.

There is no denying that Arizona’s defense stinks, but can Atlanta take full advantage? Maybe not. WR1 Drake London is questionable with a knee injury and is trending toward missing a 4th consecutive contest. Tight end Kyle Pitts, who went crazy to the tune of 166 yards and 3 touchdowns last Thursday night, is questionable with a knee issue of his own. Fortunately for the Falcons, their defense has overachieved in 2025. The franchise’s previously nonexistent pass rush is 2nd in the NFL in sacks, led by rookie first-round draft pick James Pearce Jr. This will not be an easy day at the office for Brissett, and the Cardinals don’t have the running game to capitalize on a vulnerable Atlanta run defense.

Find our full Falcons vs Cardinals prediction

NFL Best Bet: New England Patriots +3 over Baltimore Ravens (-113)

Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at the time of publishing.

For the first time all season, the Baltimore Ravens finally had an easy win in week 15. Of course, Cincinnati seemed deflated from the very start of last week’s game, and a Joe Burrow lead offense was out of its rhythm, failing to score a single point. The ravens deserve credit all around, they showed up and got the job done and they must-win situation, but it still doesn’t improve that their struggles have ceased. We also can’t dismiss that Baltimore still ranks a lowly 20th in total offensive EPA metrics, and they’re not much better on defense either (16th). Their secondary is even more concerning, ranked 19th in defensive EPA per pass and permitting 233.3 passing yards per game (26th). Even worse, only the 49ers sack the quarterback less (Baltimore ranks 31st, taking down the quarterback on only 4.14% of plays). We hate that for their matchup on Sunday night.

There is no reasonable evidence that suggests the Ravens are a better team than the Patriots entering Week 16. Baltimore’s edge is that they’re at home and that they have more experience in big-time matchups like this, a cyclical playoff participant under the era of John Harbaugh and Lamar Jackson. But when it comes to this season, the Patriots are the better team in every category. Offensively they rank 6th in total offensive EPA and 12th in total defensive EPA, not to mention they’re coming off a 10-game winning streak, which was broken in Week 15.

Speaking of Week 15, we’re not concerned about the Patriots because of one flawed half. Many teams fall victim to the magic of Josh Allen, who engineered yet another second half comeback last Sunday. New England showed its youth and inexperience last weekend, but otherwise they’ve been one of the most consistent programs in the NFL. In fact, only the Seahawks and Rams, two other 11-3 outfits, have a better point-differential than Mike Vrabel’s team (+7.6).

Especially since they’re coming off a loss, there’s simply no way we could bet on the Ravens here. Too many times we’ve seen their defense capitulate, and even in an easy win last week, their offense was rather pedestrian (317 total yards, 15 first downs). Meanwhile, the Patriots have been a well-oiled machine and one of the best ATS teams all season (8-5-1, 61.5%). If we’re getting a field goal with the visitors, we’re taking it.

Here are our Patriots vs Ravens predictions for SNF