If Thursday Night Football between the Rams and Seahawks was any indication for the weekend ahead in the NFL, then we are in for quite a treat in Week 16. Fan and bettors alike will be treated to 2 Saturday games this weekend when the Eagles visit the Commanders and the Packers play the Bears in Chicago without Micah Parsons. Sunday’s action kicks off at 1:00 pm ET with 7 games, headlined by Buccaneers vs. Panthers, Bills vs. Browns, and Chargers vs. Cowboys, and the early-afternoon games will be followed by a 4-game mid-afternoon slate that begins at 4:05 pm ET with Jaguars vs. Broncos and Steelers vs. Lions in the spotlight. To cap it all off, the Patriots will visit the Ravens on Sunday Night Football.
Here at Pickswise, we have you covered on EVERY GAME on the Week 16 card! You can find our NFL picks for EVERY side and total, and tail our expert handicappers – who collectively boast a 240-202-3 record so far this season! But for now, let’s break down our NFL best bets from our top experts.
NFL Best Bet: Chicago Bears ML over Green Bay Packers (-125)
Odds widely available at the time of publishing.
One of the most consequential games on the NFL Week 16 slate comes in Chicago, where the Bears are going to take on the Green Bay Packers in a massive showdown in the NFC North. These teams just met two weeks ago in Green Bay, and the Packers were able to come out on top in a game that came down to the final possession. This time around, Chicago is in a much better position as a team, and I actually make the Bears a small favorite in this game given the key injuries that Green Bay has sustained in recent weeks. Ben Johnson’s group was just in a very difficult situational spot against the Browns a week ago, and this offense didn’t miss a beat against the stout Cleveland defense, as Chicago racked up 31 points and dominated the game from start to finish at home. Caleb Williams is playing the best football of his young NFL career at the moment, while the Bears defense has shown signs of improvement of late. Given the fact that Chicago came up just a few yards short of sending the previous meeting between these teams to overtime, it’s hard not to favor Williams and company to pick up a possible division-clinching win at home.
While Chicago has impressed me in recent weeks, the Packers are a team that I’ll be looking to fade in the immediate future, albeit through no fault of their own. Green Bay is still one of the best teams in the NFC, but the Packers’ hopes of winning a Super Bowl were essentially dashed a week ago when Micah Parsons went down with a torn ACL in a loss to the Broncos. The rest of the Green Bay defense is still very solid, but it’s hard to quantify just how much of a difference-maker Parsons is in a variety of areas. Elsewhere, the Packers might also be without top wide receiver Christian Watson in this game, and that doesn’t bode well for Jordan Love’s downfield passing efficiency against an opportunistic Bears secondary that has made a living on forcing turnovers this season. I’ll back the home ‘dog while I’m still getting plus-money in what should be a terrific game on Saturday.
Here’s our Bears vs Packers prediction, including picks on side and total
NFL Best Bet: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 over Carolina Panthers (-105)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM at the time of publishing.
Tampa Bay and Carolina enter Sunday’s critical NFC South matchup tied atop the division at 7-7. The Buccaneers have slumped down the stretch, dropping 5 of their last 6 games with the lone victory coming by 3 against the Cardinals in Week 13. Tampa Bay visits Bank of America Stadium against a Carolina squad that lost on a field goal in the final seconds of last Sunday’s 20-17 defeat at New Orleans. Carolina led New Orleans 17-7 late in the third quarter before the Saints scored the final 13 points of the game.
The Panthers are 5-1 off a loss this season. In the underdog role, Carolina has posted a solid 8-3 ATS mark, including a 4-1 ATS record at home. In their last home game, the Panthers stunned the Rams as 10.5-point underdogs 31-28 in their highest-scoring game of the season. Carolina has scored 61 points in its last 2 games off a loss, but has also allowed 55 points in those victories.
Tampa Bay needs to get on track fast, as the Buccaneers control their destiny with 2 meetings against the Panthers over the final 3 games. The Bucs shouldn’t be in this position, as they lost to 2 teams at home that are not headed to the playoffs – the Saints and Falcons. In fact, the Bucs are 0-6 ATS in the last 6 games, but have not been listed as a road favorite in this stretch. Tampa Bay is 2-0 SU/ATS in 2 opportunities when laying points away from Raymond James Stadium, winning at Atlanta and New Orleans. In the past 10 matchups, the Buccaneers are 9-1 against the Panthers, and QB Baker Mayfield has not lost to Carolina since taking over in 2023. The trends point towards Carolina, but this looks like the get-right game for Tampa Bay to save its season, so we’ll lay the points with the Bucs.
Read our full Bucs vs Panthers prediction
NFL Best Bet: Buffalo Bills -10 over Cleveland Browns (-115)
Odds available at Fanatics Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
The Buffalo Bills will try to build on a massive win over their AFC East rival Patriots when they visit the Cleveland Browns in Week 16 of the NFL season on Sunday afternoon. My Bills vs. Browns pick is for the visitors to win and cover. If there is one thing we learned from Week 15, it’s that big spreads are often not big enough. There are simply some awful football teams this year; one such team is the Browns. They are 3-11 and have lost 3 games in a row, including by 18 points to San Francisco and by a 31-3 margin at Chicago this past Sunday. Cleveland even lost to lowly Tennessee during this stretch. Rookie QB Shedeur Sanders has been better than Dillon Gabriel — but that’s not saying much. Head coach Kevin Stefanski’s squad is 3rd-to-last in total offense, and only Las Vegas is averaging fewer points per game than Cleveland.
There are also a lot of really good teams this year, including the Bills. They may not be where they want since the Patriots still lead the AFC East, but Josh Allen and company are 10-4 and coming off a huge road win at New England to keep their division-title hopes alive. At the very least, the Bills are well on their way to another playoff berth. These are simply 2 squads going in very different directions. As such, this is one of those double-digit spreads that still isn’t big enough. The Browns are 0-3 ATS in their last 3 overall and 2-5 ATS in the last 7 head-to-head meetings.
Don’t forget to check out our Bills vs Browns prediction for picks on both side and total
NFL Best Bet: Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 over Miami Dolphins (-115)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook the time of publishing.
The Cincinnati Bengals head to Miami this Sunday for a matchup against the Dolphins, and both teams are already counting down the days until next season. Cincinnati had its season derailed when QB Joe Burrow exited its Week 2 game with a turf toe injury, but things haven’t been much better since he returned. After a big win over the Baltimore Ravens on Thanksgiving night, Cincinnati has dropped two in a row to the Bills and Ravens, and the Bengals weren’t even competitive last week against Baltimore, falling 24-0. Luckily for them, they’ll be going up against a 6-8 Dolphins team that just turned to rookie QB Quinn Ewers after head coach Mike McDaniels announced the benching of Tua Tagovailoa. Both teams are mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, but I expect the Bengals will be the team with a stronger response after last week’s embarrassing defeat.
The ‘Phins started turning heads during their 4-game win streak, but 3 of those wins came against the Commanders, Saints and Jets. They showed little life in last week’s loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers after falling behind 28-3, but managed to score 2 garbage-time touchdowns. Additionally, the Bengals being shut out last week actually gives them a boost based on historical trends. Since 2015, teams that were shut out in the previous week are 35-17-3 against the spread in their next game and a perfect 5-0 ATS this season. This marked the Bengals’ first shutout with Burrow as the QB, and there’s no doubt in my mind that he’ll want to bounce back in a big way.Finally, McDaniel and the Dolphins have been awful on short rest; they’re just 3-10 since he took over, losing by 8.2 PPG. Although the Bengals have struggled this year, they’ll be up against a rookie QB in his first start after a disappointing loss; give me Cincinnati to win big on Sunday.
We have bets on the side and total in our Bengals vs Dolphins prediction
NFL Best Bet: New England Patriots +3 over Baltimore Ravens (-113)
Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
For the first time all season, the Baltimore Ravens finally had an easy win in week 15. Of course, Cincinnati seemed deflated from the very start of last week’s game, and a Joe Burrow lead offense was out of its rhythm, failing to score a single point. The ravens deserve credit all around, they showed up and got the job done and they must-win situation, but it still doesn’t improve that their struggles have ceased. We also can’t dismiss that Baltimore still ranks a lowly 20th in total offensive EPA metrics, and they’re not much better on defense either (16th). Their secondary is even more concerning, ranked 19th in defensive EPA per pass and permitting 233.3 passing yards per game (26th). Even worse, only the 49ers sack the quarterback less (Baltimore ranks 31st, taking down the quarterback on only 4.14% of plays). We hate that for their matchup on Sunday night.
There is no reasonable evidence that suggests the Ravens are a better team than the Patriots entering Week 16. Baltimore’s edge is that they’re at home and that they have more experience in big-time matchups like this, a cyclical playoff participant under the era of John Harbaugh and Lamar Jackson. But when it comes to this season, the Patriots are the better team in every category. Offensively they rank 6th in total offensive EPA and 12th in total defensive EPA, not to mention they’re coming off a 10-game winning streak, which was broken in Week 15.
Speaking of Week 15, we’re not concerned about the Patriots because of one flawed half. Many teams fall victim to the magic of Josh Allen, who engineered yet another second half comeback last Sunday. New England showed its youth and inexperience last weekend, but otherwise they’ve been one of the most consistent programs in the NFL. In fact, only the Seahawks and Rams, two other 11-3 outfits, have a better point-differential than Mike Vrabel’s team (+7.6).
Especially since they’re coming off a loss, there’s simply no way we could bet on the Ravens here. Too many times we’ve seen their defense capitulate, and even in an easy win last week, their offense was rather pedestrian (317 total yards, 15 first downs). Meanwhile, the Patriots have been a well-oiled machine and one of the best ATS teams all season (8-5-1, 61.5%). If we’re getting a field goal with the visitors, we’re taking it.
Here are our Patriots vs Ravens predictions for SNF
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