After a somewhat lackluster Christmas Day in the NFL, the Week 17 weekend slate should provide some better competition. The action kicks off on Saturday at 4:30 pm ET when the Texans visit LA to play the Chargers, which will be followed by a headline, non-conference showdown between the Ravens and the Packers from Lambeau Field. There will be 7 1:00 pm ET games on Sunday, including Seahawks vs. Panthers, Steelers vs. Browns, Jaguars vs. Colts, and Buccaneers vs. Dolphins, but the mid-afternoon window is small with just 2 games: Giants vs. Raiders and Eagles vs. Bills. The NFL action concludes with a Sunday Night Football matchup between the Bears and 49ers at 8:20 pm ET out in the Bay Area.
Here at Pickswise, we have you covered on EVERY GAME on the Week 17 card! You can find our NFL picks for EVERY side and total, and tail our expert handicappers – who collectively boast a 259-219-4 record so far this season! But for now, let’s break down our NFL best bets from our top experts.
NFL Best Bet: Houston Texans +2 over Los Angeles Chargers (-110)
Odds available at bet365 at the time of publishing.
The Houston Texans will try to extend their 7-game winning streak when they visit the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 17 of the NFL season on Saturday afternoon. It has been a well-deserved surge, too. The 7 games include victories over Jacksonville, Buffalo, Indianapolis and Kansas City — when the Chiefs were still in contention and had Patrick Mahomes on the field. Head coach Demeco Ryans’ team is simply rolling right now, fueled by arguably the best defense in football. As such, my Texans vs Chargers pick is for the visitors to cover.
Los Angeles is on a 4-game streak of its own, although it flirted with disaster against Philadelphia (22-19 in overtime) and Kansas City (16-13 after Mahomes tore his ACL). Aside from when it faced horrific defenses in Dallas and Las Vegas, this offense has been quite poor dating all the way back to Week 11 — a 35-6 setback against Jacksonville. It’s hard to see Justin Herbert and company having their way with this Houston defense. I wouldn’t be overly alarmed by the Texans’ 23-21 scare against Las Vegas last weekend. That was a classic lookahead spot against a horrible team with a much bigger game against the Chargers on the immediate horizon. The real Houston squad should show up on Saturday.
Here’s our Texans vs Chargers prediction, including picks on side and total
NFL Best Bet: Indianapolis Colts +6.5 over Jacksonville Jaguars (-110)
Odds widely available at the time of publishing.
Jacksonville has made an impressive jump in its first season with Liam Coen as head coach, clinching its first playoff berth since 2022. The Jaguars extended their winning streak to 6 games after an impressive 34-20 victory at Denver last Sunday as 3.5-point underdogs. During this hot stretch, the Jags have scored at least 34 points 4 times and have topped the 25-point mark all six games. In fact, Jacksonville has posted more than 25 points in eight consecutive games after getting held to 19 points in a pair of October losses to the Rams and Seahawks. In the last 2 weeks, QB Trevor Lawrence has tossed 8 touchdown passes and is riding a 6-game streak with multiple TD passes.
The Colts (8-7) have seen their dreams of a division title, much less a playoff spot crumble over the last two months. Indianapolis leapt out to an incredible 7-1 record in Daniel Jones’ first season as starting QB of the Colts. However, the Colts have lost six of the past seven games and lost Jones for the season with a broken fibula suffered in a 36-19 defeat at Jacksonville in Week 14. Indianapolis turned to 44-year old Philip Rivers to try and save its season, but the Colts have lost in his first two starts to the Seahawks and 49ers.
Rivers helped the Colts cover as 13-point road underdogs in an 18-16 defeat two weeks ago, but he threw for 120 yards. He looked better in Monday’s 48-27 blowout loss to San Francisco, posting 277 passing yards and 2 touchdowns, but the Colts’ defense had its worst performance of the season in their second home setback. This has been a series dominated by the home team, as the Colts are 4-1 in the past five against the Jaguars at Lucas Oil Stadium. Jacksonville is the team to beat in the AFC South, but Indianapolis should give them a run here looking for revenge for the loss a few weeks ago.
Read our full Jaguars vs Colts prediction
NFL Best Bet: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Miami Dolphins Under 45.5 (-109)
Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Keep in mind that offensive success for the Bucs is all relative. They have scored more than 20 points in a game only once since Week 11, and that was a modest 28-point performance in a home loss to the Falcons. Mayfield has reached the 200-yard passing mark just once since Week 10. Some of Tampa Bay’s skill-position players are back, but WR Chris Godwin Jr. is questionable and the offensive line is still banged up (Tristan Wirfs and Luke Goedeke are also questionable). That is part of the reason why Buccaneers vs Dolphins pick is Under 45.5.
Of course, the biggest reason to expect a low-scoring affair this weekend is because Miami’s offense is involved. You can’t fault McDaniel for benching Tagovailoa, but it was more like a necessary evil rather than a move that is going to actually pay off immediate dividends. The offense wasn’t clicking with Tagovailoa at the helm; it has been even worse with Ewers. Obviously the sample size is small, but there is no reason to think it will get any better these last 2 week of the season. The Dolphins’ only real chance is to run the ball with De’Von Achane, but Tampa Bay ranks #7 in the NFL against the run.
Don’t forget to check out our Bucs vs Dolphins prediction for picks on both side and total
NFL Best Bet: New Orleans Saints -2.5 over Tennessee Titans (-114)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook the time of publishing.
While most of the Week 17 slate features at least one team in playoff contention, Sunday’s contest between the Saints and Titans is not one that most NFL fans will focus on. However, there is still a bit of value to be had in this game, and it comes on the visitors. The betting market has slowly adjusted to the Saints’ improved play over the second half of the season in recent weeks, and New Orleans continued its good run of form a week ago in a 29-6 victory over the lowly Jets. The victory marked the 3rd consecutive win for the Saints, and it was also the 4th straight game in which New Orleans covered the spread.
The insertion of Tyler Shough at quarterback has proven to be a significant upgrade over Spencer Rattler for an offense that was in desperate need of a spark, and the Saints rookie QB is also coming off the best game of his young career in that victory over New York last week. This momentum should carry over into this week’s matchup against a Titans defense that is dealing with some injuries to key players heading into this one. As for Tennessee, the Titans have showed signs of life in recent weeks, most recently in a win over the reeling Chiefs a week ago. However, Kansas City was already eliminated heading into that game and had nothing to play for. To make matters worse, the Titans defense got to face a 3rd-string quarterback for a decent chunk of that contest. It won’t be nearly as easy of a matchup for Tennessee this time around. I’ll lay the points with a New Orleans team that is trending up at the moment.
We have bets on the side and total in our Saints vs Titans prediction
NFL Best Bet: Chicago Bears +3 over San Francisco 49ers (+100)
Odds available at bet365 at the time of publishing.
Caleb Williams and the Bears did it again in Week 16. Although they were trailing for the majority of the contest, Chicago willed itself to a victory at home against a team that has historically dominated their franchise. An onside-kick recovery and then a timely error by the Green Bay offense, which included a failed 4th-down conversion in overtime, opened the window for Williams and the offense. Eventually the Bears tallied up 400 total yards on Saturday night, largely behind the heroics of their 2nd-year quarterback. Williams had another efficient performance, going 19-34 for 250 yards (7.4 yards per pass) and 2 touchdowns. He also ran 3 times for 30 yards, converting a few key first downs.
Chicago’s defense had its struggles, even after Jordan Love left the game (they allowed Malik Willis and the Packers to run for 190 yards), but they also made big plays when they needed to. Dennis Allen’s group prevented the Pack from scoring late, allowing just 3 points in the 4th quarter and nothing more in overtime. In one of the biggest turnaround stories this season, Chicago clinched a playoff berth in the process and now they have a firm 2-game lead in the NFC North.
The 49ers won their 5th game in a row on Monday night and were completely unstoppable on offense. Some of that may be due to the current state of the banged-up Colts, who are hanging on by a thread in the playoff race. Regardless, 28 first downs and 440 yards later, San Francisco remains a threat even for the NFC’s #1 seed, which was inconceivable 6 weeks ago. The return of Brock Purdy and the steady, disciplined nature of Robert Saleh’s defense have kept the outfit thriving, and many consider the Niners a dark-horse threat to make a deep playoff run. Contrarily, most of their wins have come against lower-tier opponents or opponents in difficult situations, as they’ve had one of the most complimentary schedules in the NFL this season. Their defense, which ranks 23rd in total EPA metrics and allowed 27 points to the Phillip Rivers-led Colts on Monday, is still cause for concern.
This already feels like a playoff game since the team that loses will effectively be booted out of contention for the NFC’s #1 seed. Chicago has been super-consistent this season, qualifying as one of the most effective teams against the spread (10-5, 66.7%). So has San Francisco (9-5-1 overall, 7-2-1 as a favorite). Still, this is a coin-flip game from our perspective, and Chicago’s defense is playing better than advertised right now (12th in total EPA).
Here are our Bears vs 49ers predictions for SNF
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