1u – Josh Allen o30.5 Pass Attempts (-130 @ MGM)
This isn’t a bet you can just look at the hit rate and move on with your day. This one is very dependent on getting a favorable gamescript. When Buffalo blows teams out, they lean heavily on Cook to end the game and Allen will have 25 attempts or less. In a dogfight against Kansas City, I don’t see a blowout in our future. Last year when Allen went against Kansas City we saw him throw the ball 40 and 34 times. He has 34+ pass attempts in 6 straight against the Chiefs, all we need is 31 here. In both Buffalo games decided by one possession this year we have seen Allen surpass this number, I expect it to happen again.
1u – Kai Fairbairn o1.5 FGM (-145 @ ESPN)
I’m drinking the juice here, but this is too good to pass up. Kai is 6/7 on this prop and the game he missed he still had 2+ FGA. He is 17-19 on the year and this game will be played in a dome where weather shouldn’t be much of a concern. Houston finds themselves against a stout Denver defense. Denver is great preventing touchdowns so they allow the 2nd most field goals in the NFL. This game has a wildly low total of 39.5 implying we will see some drives come short. I love everything about this play, it makes it worth playing even at -145.
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