We are midway through the season and the Thursday Night Football games are officially in hit-or-miss mode, with the “misses” becoming more frequent in terms of competitive football games. Obviously when the NFL creates these primetime matchups, they cannot predict injuries or teams simply flopping against expectations, but we have another potential blowout in Week 9.
The Baltimore Ravens (-7.5) are picking up steam following a very rough start to the season. Lamar Jackson will be back under center, and the Ravens are coming off a win in Week 8 coupled with the Steelers losing on MNF that vaults them back into the AFC North race. The Miami Dolphins are coming off of a surprise win, but a poor showing on Thursday could be the end of head coach Mike McDaniels as early as Monday morning. I’m excited to see if Baltimore starts hot behind Jackson’s return from injury.
Here is favorite prop bet for the action.
Isaiah Likely (BAL) Over 21.5 receiving yards (-114)
Line available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing
For the second straight week, Likely has ran more routes than fellow tight end Mark Andrews (16 to 15 last week) and the return of Jackson has put me over the edge on Likely finally breaking out this season. The 2025 season for the Ravens’ offense as a whole is tough one to trust as a data set given the injuries, so I went back to 2024 to review Likely’s performance — specifically against man-heavier defenses, like the Dolphins are in 2025.
In the 2024 playoffs in which Likely really popped, he was second only to Andrews on the team in targets against man coverage and fourth overall on the team in targets against man coverage when you look at the full season (regular and playoffs). The line itself is also indicative of a breakout game for Likely. He has not cleared 12 yards in a game this season and yet the line opened at 20.5 and has grown to 21.5. I believe Jackson’s presence along with Likely’s growing role in terms of route participation is the perfect recipe for a breakout game in primetime.
I will also be playing his alt line of 30+ (+158) for 0.5u.
Click here to add us to your Google preferred sources and never miss a story
