The NFL Playoffs continue this weekend with 4 Divisional Round matchups, starting on Saturday when the Buffalo Bills head to Denver to play the AFC’s top-seeded Broncos at 4:30 pm ET on CBS. That game will be followed by a rivalry matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and the NFC’s top seed in the Seattle Seahawks at 8:00 pm ET on FOX. Sunday’s double-header starts at 3:00 pm on ABC when the Houston Texans head to Foxboro to play the New England Patriots, with the final game of the Divisional Round being played in Chicago between the Los Angeles Rams and the Bears at 6:30 pm ET on NBC.
Here at Pickswise, we have you covered on EVERY GAME throughout the NFL Playoffs! You can find our NFL picks for EVERY side and total, and tail our expert handicappers – who are collectively 304-244-4 record, good for over 90 units of profit! After a clean 6-0 sweep in the Wildcard Round, it’s time to get into our NFL best bets for each of the 4 upcoming playoff games in the Divisional Round.
NFL Best Bet: Denver Broncos +1.5 over Buffalo Bills (-115)
Odds available at bet365 Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Many pontificators in the betting world thought the Jaguars would successfully move on to the Divisional Round, anchored by Liam Coen and their new-look defense. That never came to be. Instead, Buffalo secured their first road playoff win since 1992, led by more heroic efforts from Josh Allen. The esteemed Bills quarterback seemed to injure his knee and throwing hand on the same drive early in the game, but that didn’t stop him from accruing 306 total yards and 3 total touchdowns. When it mattered, Trevor Lawrence threw 2 key interceptions, one on the final drive, to seal the Buffalo victory.
As usual, the Allen-led offense was more than effective, answering the call whenever needed. On the other hand, the Bills’ defense played good, not great, only a few times making stops when it mattered. Not ideal was that Jacksonville went 5-9 on 3rd downs and 3-4 in the red zone. In truth, if it wasn’t for Lawrence’s 2 interceptions, the final result might’ve been different. As usual, the onus of Buffalo’s future will remain with Allen and his ability, since we suspect their defense will continue to allow plenty of production from opponents. The Bills will face a much greater challenge this coming Saturday, up in elevation in Denver against a Broncos squad that knows how to win and will be coming off extended rest.
Denver is statistically the opposite of Buffalo. They can rely on their defense, a group that’s top-5 in nearly every metric (including a 1st-place ranking in opponent yards per game, 278.2), but their offense seems to only come alive when they need it. Bo Nix and his colleagues mostly present average to below average marks, particularly in yards per pass, where they generate just 6.4 (29th). This is true even though they own one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, permitting a sack on just 3.62% of plays (2nd overall). The good news for Denver is that they are good under pressure, averaging 7.7 points in the 4th quarter and successfully completing 5 4th-quarter comebacks this season. Of course, Josh Allen and the Bills are also pretty good in this category, too, averaging 9.2 4th-quarter points and earning a few 4th-quarter comebacks themselves.
We’re pretty certain this game will come down to the final drive. Since one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks will be facing one of the NFL’s best defenses, that makes this matchup all the more difficult to predict. At face value, the more rested team at home is generally the side to go with, especially considering their prowess on defense. Personally, we’d love to see Buffalo win, but the intangibles favor Denver.
Here’s our Bills vs Broncos prediction, including picks on side and total
NFL Best Bet: San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks Under 45.5 (-115)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
The late game on Saturday presents another dead total, resting right under key numbers 46 and 47. In general, this means markets and its constituent bettors think there’s a reasonable chance for a higher-scoring contest, but not a great enough chance that it should come close to 50. In the case of this big NFC matchup, there is certainly reason to believe it will get nowhere near those numbers.
Seattle’s defense had a serious edge in their last battle, which was only 2 weeks ago. Swarming and suffocating throughout the contest, the Niners only made it into the red-zone on one occasion, failing to score a touchdown. Brock Purdy, who has sneaky elusiveness and savvy in the pocket, was sacked 3 times, hit another three times and limited to a 22.8 QBR. He also threw an interception, which has become a trend in 2025 (12 interceptions in 10 games this season, which matches his total in 15 starts in 2024). The Seahawks also held the 49ers to just 53 total rushing yards, a truly shocking mark considering Kyle Shanahan’s emphasis on the run game.
This season the 49ers are 30th in yards per rush (3.7), so we doubt the Seahawks will have any issues limiting them once again. That means the onus of the Niners’ offense will rest solely on Purdy’s shoulders. The former Iowa State QB has earned some trust, but this situation is different. No George Kittle means a major piece of their offense is missing. Add a raucous Seattle crowd and the fact that Purdy is facing the 2nd-best defense in the NFL (according to advanced EPA metrics), and we don’t feel great about his chances. In short, based on everything we’ve seen from both programs this season, it would take an exceedingly masterful game-plan and an all-world performance by San Francisco’s role players to reach 20-points or better.
Two weeks ago the San Francisco defense made another valiant effort to stymie Seattle’s production. Considering their injuries and many shortcomings throughout this season (they’re 24th in total defensive EPA), we don’t exactly have faith that they can keep their current overperformance going. What we do have faith in is that Robert Saleh is an excellent defensive coach who gets the most out of his players, regardless of their history or prowess. Considering the many other factors that support a low-scoring affair, that should be plenty to keep this total closer to 40 than 45.
Read our full Niners vs Seahawks prediction
NFL Best Bet: Houston Texans +3 over New England Patriots (+100)
Odds available at bet365 Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Houston heads to the northeast for a second straight week after knocking out Pittsburgh in Monday’s Wild Card round, 30-6. The Texans cashed as 2.5-point favorites after opening things up in the fourth quarter, outscoring the Steelers, 23-0 to break away from a 7-6 advantage. Now, the Texans are flipped to a short underdog against the AFC East champion Patriots, who also pulled away late from the Chargers in a 16-3 triumph. New England led Los Angeles, 6-3 at the half until QB Drake Maye hooked up with former Charger Hunter Henry for the game’s lone TD in the fourth quarter to send L.A. to 0-3 in the playoffs with Justin Herbert at QB.
We’ll see if New England’s offense can score on Houston’s defense, which led the NFL in yards allowed per game (277.2) and gave up 183.5 passing yards per contest. The Patriots posted a solid 12-5 ATS mark in the regular season, followed up by the cover as 3.5-point favorites over the Chargers. Houston picked up its 10th straight win against Pittsburgh since losing to eventual AFC top-seed Denver at home in Week 9. The Texans have won and covered in the past 4 opportunities in the underdog role, including victories over the Chargers, Bills, and Chiefs.
Houston routed New England last season 41-21 at Gillette Stadium, as Maye threw for 243 yards, 3 TDs, and 2 INTs. Texans QB C.J. Stroud looks to overcome his 5 fumbles against the Steelers, as he posted at least 240 passing yards in 3 of 4 road games since returning from his concussion in November. The Patriots have won 11 consecutive games as a favorite since getting stunned in the season opener by the Raiders. Houston’s defense has been exceptional this season and as long as Stroud can hold onto the ball, the Texans are a strong look here as an underdog.
Don’t forget to check out our Texans vs Patriots prediction for picks on both side and total
NFL Best Bet: Los Angeles Rams -3.5 over Chicago Bears (-115)
Odds available at bet365 Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Four of 6 road teams won during NFL Wild Card weekend, starting with the Rams’ 34-31 victory at Carolina. Although Los Angeles failed to cover as 10.5-point road favorites, the Rams avenged a 31-28 defeat to the Panthers from late November. Los Angeles squandered an early 14-0 lead, but QB Matthew Stafford hit TE Colby Parkinson for the go-ahead score in the final minute, marking the 4th lead change in the final quarter. The Rams travel to frigid Chicago on Sunday night, where temperatures are expected to be below 20 degrees during the day and around 6 degrees at night.
Chicago rallied from a 21-3 halftime deficit to stun Green Bay 31-27 for the franchise’s first playoff win since 2010. The Bears scored 25 points in the fourth quarter, highlighted by a pair of TD passes from QB Caleb Williams in his playoff debut. The former top pick finished with 361 passing yards and 2 TDs, marking his first 300+ yard passing performance of the season. Chicago somehow came back in spite of not creating a takeaway after leading the league at +22 in turnovers in the regular season. The Bears have won 7 of their last 8 games at Soldier Field since falling apart in the season-opening defeat to the Vikings.
For the 2nd straight week, the Bears are listed as a home underdog and the Rams are a road favorite. LA posted a 5-2 ATS mark as a road favorite, including the blowout of Jacksonville in London. The 2 non-covers came as a favorite of more than a TD in losses to Atlanta and Carolina, but all 5 covers came by at least 10 points. The Bears have put together an 8-2 ATS record in the role of a dog, including a 2-0 ATS mark at home. The Rams aren’t used to the cold, but let’s back the road favorite here to advance to the NFC Championship.
We have bets on the side and total in our Rams vs Bears prediction
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