NFL Teaser Picks Week 4: Best NFL teaser bets, odds and strategies this week
Some of the most popular types of NFL bets include the classic straight bet, a parlay, a player prop and a game total. However, have you heard of a teaser? It’s like a parlay in the sense that you’re combining 2 teams, but you get to change the spread or total in your favor. At most sportsbooks, a 2-team, 6-point teaser will have odds of -120; if it doesn’t, be sure to shop around for the best price.
Also make sure to check out all of our NFL Week 4 picks.
NFL Teaser Strategies
There is a certain strategy when putting your teaser together. That includes being aware of the key numbers: 3, 6 and 7. Those are the most common winning margins in an NFL game. So, when taking a teaser, you ideally want to be lower than 3 and higher than 7. For example, if a heavy favorite is -8.5 on the spread, I can tease them down 6 points through all 3 key numbers to -2.5. That’s an excellent teaser choice since the team can now win by 3, 6 and 7 and the teaser would win.
On the other side, taking an underdog through those key numbers is also just as valuable. If a team is a +1.5 underdog, you could tease them up 6 points to +7.5, and then that allows them to win or lose by the 3 key numbers and you would still win. There’s also the option to tease game totals in the NFL, but with how quickly and sporadic scores can happen, I tend to stay from totals and stick to spreads. It can be fun hunting for the best teaser options each week, so let’s get into some of my teaser contenders for Week 4, and then my favorite teaser option for the Sunday.
NFL Week 4 Teaser Options
Each week, I give out my 5 favorite teaser legs for the games ahead. In Week 3, my teaser leg candidates went 4-1, with the only pick not winning coming from the Cowboys. I’ve learned that it has become very valuable to tease underdogs through the key numbers, and that’s the plan again this week, with 3 of my 5 teaser candidates being underdogs. Admittedly, I had to include a pair of favorites to tease their spread to a much more reasonable number.
- Eagles -2.5 (from -8.5)
- Dolphins +9 (from +3)
- Chiefs -2.5 (from -8.5)
- Patriots +12.5 (from +6.5)
- Ravens +7.5 (from +1.5)
Last week, one of my favorite teaser legs was teasing Miami’s spread down from -6.5 to -0.5. In the end, I didn’t even need the extra six points since the Dolphins won by a staggering 50! But this week will be their biggest test yet. However, I think people are overestimating Buffalo’s defense and forgetting Miami has already beaten the Patriots, who boast an above-average defensive unit. The Eagles are also 3-0 heading into Week 4, and their wins have come by 5, 6 and 14 points. Considering those wins have come against the Patriots, Vikings and Buccaneers, this should be their least difficult week yet.
Travis Kelce and the Chiefs have taken social media by storm, and obviously this teaser pick is based on cold-hard statistics… and the fact that Taylor Swift is expected to be in attendance once again. Look at Kansas City’s history of when Swift has come to a Chiefs game: 1-0 straight up, 1-0 against the spread and 1-0 when used in a teaser. They’re undefeated! Plus, Zach Wilson is the quarterback of the Jets, so that’s all I have to say about that.
The final two legs include a pair of underdogs that can have their respective spreads teased to above the key numbers. The Patriots travel to Dallas to take on the Cowboys, who are coming off a truly embarrassing loss to the tanking Cardinals. New England’s defense should be another reality check for Dak Prescott. The Ravens have their first matchup against their divisional rival, the Browns, this weekend, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Baltimore complete the upset, so I’m teasing their spread above a touchdown.
NFL Week 4 Teaser Best Bet
I’m doing something a little different this week. Instead of a 2-leg teaser at -120 odds, I’m adding an extra team to make it a 3-leg teaser with +140 odds. That’s right — a plus-odds teaser!
The Eagles and Chiefs both have Week 4 spreads that are above a touchdown, which makes a lot of sense based on their past performances and their Week 4 opponents. Would I back either spread as it is? Maybe, but maybe not. But would I back their spread if it was below a field goal? Absolutely. Teasing Kansas City’s and Philadelphia’s spread down would get it below 3, which is excellent value considering neither team has won by anything less than a field goal this season. As for their matchups, the Eagles are playing the Commanders, who lost 37-3 in Week 3 against the Bills in a game that Sam Howell looked like a deer in the headlights. And the Chiefs are featured on Sunday Night Football against the Jets, and as long as Wilson is the quarterback for New York, they don’t have a great chance to stay competitive against any quality teams.
The third leg of the teaser is for the Dolphins to either win or lose by 8 or fewer points. Miami is 3-0 and coming off a historic 50-point win against the Broncos, but it’s no secret that this will be their toughest opponent yet. The Bills looked sluggish in Week 1 during their loss to the Jets, but they’ve bounced back nicely with blowout wins against the Raiders and Commanders. However, the Dolphins are in a completely different class than those teams. This should be a back-and-forth game with a lot of scoring, and I’m confident that the Dolphins can keep it within one score.