Week 10 of the NFL season is in the books and what a week it was. There was plenty of drama across the slate, including a pretty significant win for the Dolphins over the Bills for the biggest upset on the board. While I was unable to cash in on my Week 10 mega parlay, I did cash back in Week 1 at +2512 odds! I have come within 1 or 2 legs of cashing these massive parlays in recent weeks, so let’s make it a second winner this week!
With the Week 11 Sunday slate on the horizon, let’s get right into my NFL Week 11 mega parlay that pays out at over 24/1 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Vikings -2.5 (-115)
Buccaneers vs Bills under 47.5 (-110)
Ravens vs Browns under 39.5 (-110)
Seahawks (+152)
Chiefs ML (-210)
NFL Week 11 parlay odds: +2480
Minnesota Vikings -2.5 over Chicago Bears (-115)
While the Bears have the better record entering this game, I’m pretty skeptical of this Bears defense against any offense with a pulse. After all, Chicago is 23rd in success rate allowed and have not fared well against the pass this season (22nd in EPA per pass allowed). The Bears have thrived on generating turnovers, but there is some regression coming in that department and I think that starts this week against a smart Vikings offensive staff and an offense that is at the bottom of its market perception-wise following a loss to the Ravens a week ago. However, even in that loss, Minnesota actually outgained the Ravens and averaged 6 yards per play, so there is reason to believe that the Vikings cut down on the turnovers and put up a strong showing at home this week.
Read our full Vikings vs Bears predictions
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Buffalo Bills under 47.5 (-110)
The weather forecast calls for 15-20 mph winds in this one, and that could make things extremely difficult for both teams through the air. The Bills offense is dealing with some potential key injuries in the passing game, and those issues could be exacerbated given the conditions at hand. We can expect Buffalo — who has the highest rush rate in the league — to keep the ball on the ground and look to grind out long scoring drives. On the other side, Tampa Bay’s rushing attack doesn’t have much juice at the moment with Bucky Irving out of the lineup and Mayfield has come back to earth in recent weeks. With that in mind, the under is the only way I can look in this one.
Baltimore Ravens vs Cleveland Browns under 39.5 (-110)
Much like what we’ll see in Buffalo, the weather forecast in this Ravens vs Browns matchup indicates that we’ll see high wins in this game, which is bad news for both teams in terms of pushing the ball downfield. The Browns should be perfectly comfortable with keeping the ball on the ground anyway, especially given quarterback Dillon Gabriel’s struggles through the air. On the other side, if Lamar Jackson isn’t 100% that could hurt his ability to escape and avoid sacks away from the Browns disruptive pass rush. Regardless of if the Ravens are able to win by margin or not, this should be a lower-scoring affair that features plenty of early down runs.
Don’t miss our full Ravens vs Browns predictions
Seattle Seahawks ML over Los Angeles Rams (+152)
For our next leg, we’ll target the Seattle Seahawks to pull off the outright upset as short underdogs against the Rams. These are a couple of the best teams in the NFL and I don’t have the Rams favored by much on a neutral field, so I’m inclined to take the Seahawks at plus money given Los Angeles’ mediocre home field advantage isn’t properly accounted for in the market. Seattle is a top 5 operation on both sides of the ball at the moment and while Matt Stafford and the Rams offense should be able to move the ball through the air, I wouldn’t expect them to have any success on the ground, which should put Los Angeles in 3rd and long situations fairly regularly. Sam Darnold and the electric Seattle offense should put up points in this game, making them live for the upset.
Don’t miss our full Seahawks vs Rams predictions
Kansas City Chiefs ML over Denver Broncos (-210)
To close out our mega parlay, let’s take the Kansas City Chiefs on the money line to serve as an anchor leg. This is a game where the market is ignoring the records and just looking at how these teams are performing on the stat sheet. Denver has been one of the most fortunate teams in the NFL to this point, while the Chiefs have largely looked like one of the premier units in the league since they’ve gotten healthier. Andy Reid and company are also coming off a bye after being dominated by Buffalo two weeks ago, which makes Kansas City one of the best bets on the board this week from a situational and motivation perspective. Bo Nix can be expected to turn the ball over at least once, and I don’t trust the Denver ground game to succeed against a Kansas City defensive front that had to have been challenge in the bye week by Steve Spagnuolo.
Grab our expert’s best bets for NFL Week 11
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