NFL Week 7 Line Movements

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Andrew Ortenberg

NFL · 3 years ago

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I'm an editor here at Pickswise who was raised in a household full of sports fanatics. Since I unfortunately never had LeBron James' jumping ability I wasn't able to make it to the NBA, and chose writing about sports as the next best thing. An avid sports bettor myself, I'm excited to get to write about the industry as it gets set to take off across the country. Buckle up.

By the time the games kickoff, NFL lines often look considerably different from where they opened. Sportsbooks frequently adjust lines throughout the week both to balance the action, and to adjust to sharp money coming in from respected bettors. Today, we’ll be taking a look at a few of the more significant week 7 line movements from this games and what they mean.

NYG/ATL

The point spread in this game has moved significantly. Most shops opened this line around six, and some places even had it at a soft seven. There’s been some respected money coming in on the Giants, and oddsmakers have adjusted accordingly. The line has ticked down to around four across the board. It makes sense why sharp bettors would gravitate toward the Giants, as it’s the ultimate buy-low opportunity following the Giants’ blowout loss to the Eagles in primetime last Thursday night. The Falcons are also dealing with some more injuries, as receivers Mohamed Sanu and Calvin Ridley are both banged up. It’ll be interesting to see where this number goes from here, and whether or not it will trend toward the key number of three.

CLE/TB

The total on this game opened at around 48.5 at most shops, but quickly shot up to 49.5. Since then, it’s seemingly gone up another half point each day, and currently sits at 51.5. The rise in this total likely has a lot to do with injuries to both defenses. The Buccaneers’ best defensive player, Gerald McCoy, will miss the game for Tampa Bay, as will a couple of key Browns defenders. Linebacker Joe Schobert and cornerback E.J. Gaines have both been ruled out for Cleveland, and both are starters. The Bucs’ defense has been atrocious so far this year, and the Browns’ unit is beginning to crack after a very hot start, so it makes sense why this total is trending upward.

BUF/IND

The point spread on this game has moved through the key number of seven, after opening at 6.5. The Colts went from 6.5 point favorites to 7.5 points at most shops, an important move through the key number of seven. The move was due to the announcement that Derek Anderson would start the game for Buffalo in place of an injured Josh Allen. Anderson hasn’t shown anything in years, and was signed by the Bills less than two weeks ago. It makes sense why money would come pouring in on the Colts following the announcement, so it’s no surprise this line moved.

HOU/JAX

The total in the Texans/Jaguars game has steadily ticked down since opening at 43. It currently sits at 41, likely due to the offensive ineptitude of both teams. The Jaguars’ offensive line has been beaten up with injuries, while Deshaun Watson is playing at well less than 100 percent with a chest injury. Watson looked pretty hampered by the injury last week against the Bills, which is likely contributing to this line move. The Texans’ offensive line is also a terrible matchup for this Jaguars defensive line, and Blake Bortles has reverted to his old-self the past couple of weeks. All the factors seem to be pointing toward a low-scoring slugfest, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see this line trend down even further closer to 40.

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