NFL Wild Card Weekend Best Bets, Picks & Predictions - 49ers keep Eagles in check

San Francisco 49ers running back Brian Robinson Jr. (3) celebrates after scoring a touchdown during the third quarter against the Los Angeles Rams at Levi's Stadium.

Andrew Wilsher

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Managing Editor of Pickswise. Born and raised in jolly old London, England, with an undying love for the NFL, NBA, soccer and horse racing. A big-time sports bettor who loves futures markets and backing underdogs. Long-suffering New York Jets fan. For Andrew Wilsher media enquiries, please email contact@pickswise.com.

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NFL Best Bet: Los Angeles Rams vs Carolina Panthers Over 45.5 (-115)

Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.

Their Week 13 matchup was a display of offense, but it wasn’t catalyzed by the Rams’ mistakes. Carolina never created points from turnovers. In fact, Stafford’s interceptions suggest even more points should have piled up in their previous battle, since LAR’s mistakes only stymied more production. These are all valid reasons for a relatively high total, the 2nd-highest of Wild Card Weekend, although the playoffs have a way of slowing games down.

A total of 46.5 also isn’t drastically high considering that we expect the Rams’ offense to respond with ferocity. The market agrees, thus their -10.5 designation. The addition of Davante Adams is a drastic upgrade for an offense that might already have the #1 receiver in the NFL. Despite missing one game, Puka Nacua leads the league in receptions (129) and he’s 2nd in receiving yards (1715). Needless to say, with Stafford playing at an MVP level, we anticipate the Rams displaying massive positive regression against the 22nd-ranked Carolina defense.

The real question is on Carolina’s side. Clearly, they figured something out in their Week 13 victory over the same enemy. They controlled time of possession (35-25) and were steady when it mattered — 7-15 on 3rd down and 3-3 on 4th. Their 358 total yards were their 4th-most of the season. In general, Bryce Young is a better quarterback at home, both in poise (4 interceptions in Charlotte, 7 elsewhere) and from an efficiency standpoint (66.1% compared to 62.1% on the road). Contrarily, he averaged just 156 passing yards per game in front of his fans.

This number is very sharp but a few ticks too high considering the matchup comforts for both offenses. It helps that Charlotte will present a mild, complementary environment for December football.

Here’s our Rams vs Panthers prediction, including picks on side and total

NFL Best Bet: Chicago Bears +1.5 over Green Bay Packers (-110)

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.

The two oldest rivals in NFL history hook up in the playoffs for the 3rd time ever (1941 and 2010) on Saturday night at Soldier Field. Chicago (11-6) captured the NFC North title for the first time since 2018, overcoming an 0-2 start to win 11 of the final 15 games. Although the Bears lost a meaningless Week 18 game to the Lions, Chicago finished 6-2 at home with the first loss coming in the season-opening meltdown against Minnesota. The Bears posted a strong 11-5-1 ATS mark in head coach Ben Johnson’s first season, as the lone non-cover in a win occurred in the Week 10 comeback victory over the Giants.

Green Bay (9-7-1) stumbled to the finish line with 4 consecutive losses, though its biggest loss was arguably LB Micah Parsons tearing his ACL in the Week 15 setback at Denver. The game that cost the Packers the division title was the Week 16 meltdown at Chicago, blowing a 16-6 lead with 2 minutes remaining in regulation. The Bears scored 10 straight points to force overtime, then QB Caleb Williams connected with D.J. Moore on a 46-yard TD for the 22-16 triumph. Green Bay held off Chicago in the first matchup at Lambeau Field, 28-21 in Week 14, as the Packers are 4-2 against the Bears since Jordan Love took over at QB in 2023.

The Packers are 1-2 SU and 2-1 ATS in the playoffs with Love starting, all played on the road. Green Bay put together a 6-11 ATS mark this season, including a 1-5 ATS record as a road favorite. However, 4 of those non-covers as away chalk came when laying at least a touchdown. Chicago led the league with 23 interceptions and a +22 in the takeaway department. Love finished with 6 interceptions, and 1 of those picks came in the home win over the Bears.

Chicago is seeking its first playoff win since 2010 against Seattle; the Bears lost to the Packers in the NFC Championship that year. Green Bay hasn’t been sharp over the last month, and although the money has moved in favor of the Packers, let’s grab the Bears as a home underdog.

Read our full Packers vs Bears prediction

NFL Best Bet: Buffalo Bills ML over Jacksonville Jaguars (-108)

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.

Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars have been fantastic in the 2nd half of the season, there is no denying that. New coach Liam Coen clearly has edges as an NFL head coach, both culturally and from a play-calling perspective, and it’s changed the franchise for the better. Since the start of November, their only loss was at the Texans, a barnburner of a contest where they were stymied by an all-world Houston defense, but they have been relatively flawless since.

Lawrence is top-6 or better in many passing categories, including yards (4,006) and touchdowns (29). Through the air and on the ground, they’re consistent and productive, ranked 12th in EPA metrics. Their defense showed perhaps the most surprising improvement, up to 3rd overall in EPA metrics, including top-3 marks against opposing quarterbacks.

The difference in this game is experience. Josh Allen and Sean McDermott have been a QB-coach tandem in 13 playoff games (this is Coen’s first playoff game as a head coach, Lawrence is 1-2 in his postseason career), and Allen’s performances have been stellar (25 touchdowns, only 4 interceptions). Entering the Wild Card round and after an embattled, clumsy season, Buffalo is as healthy as it’s been all year. And offensively, they’re as buttoned up as they’ve always been, top-3 overall with top-4 rankings in EPA per pass and EPA per run.

Defensively, it’s a mixed bag. Buffalo thrives against opposing quarterbacks, ranked 7th in defensive EPA per pass, but virtually anyone can run on them. Their 5.1 opponent yards per carry is bottom-3 in the league. Luckily for the Bills, Jacksonville isn’t exceptional on the ground, ranked 27th in yards per carry (4.0) and 20th in yards per game (115.1).

Home teams typically have a big advantage, but matchup-wise, we see a strong case to be made for the visitors. Allen is one of the most talented players in the history of the NFL, and as a franchise, no team has more experience or more motivation to get further in the postseason than Buffalo. We expect this to be a tightly fought game and a teaser on Jacksonville is a fine option, but there’s only one way we can look in terms of a winner.

Don’t forget to check out our Bills vs Jags prediction for picks on both side and total

NFL Best Bet: San Francisco 49ers +5.5 over Philadelphia Eagles (-110)

Odds available at Fanatics Sportsbook at the time of publishing.

The San Francisco 49ers (12-5) withstood a bunch of injuries to key players this season, including QB Brock Purdy missing 8 games. The Niners had an opportunity at the top seed in the NFC before falling at home to the Seahawks last Saturday, 13-3. San Francisco fell to the 6th seed, getting set to face the defending champion Philadelphia Eagles (11-6). There were plenty of ups and downs for the Eagles, including 3 winning streaks of 3 games and a losing skid of 3 games, but they managed to grab the NFC East title for a 2nd straight season.

Philadelphia and San Francisco each finished with 10-7 ATS marks, while the Niners won 7 of 9 games away from Levi’s Stadium. Head coach Kyle Shanahan’s squad beat the Seahawks and Rams on the road in the first 5 weeks, but the other 5 away victories came against teams with losing records. The 49ers posted a 2-4 ATS ledger in the underdog role, which included an overtime triumph over the Rams as a 6.5-point dog in Week 5. The Eagles compiled a 4-4 ATS record at Lincoln Financial Field, including outright defeats to the Broncos and Bears. Philadelphia ranked 24th in yards per game (311.2), the 3rd-fewest for any playoff team after ranking 8th in this category during its Super Bowl run last season.

These teams last met in December 2023 when the Niners roughed up the Eagles at the Linc 42-19 as 3.5-point road favorites. Purdy threw 4 TD passes, while now-departed WR Deebo Samuel scored 3 times. In their last playoff matchup in the 2022 NFC Championship, the Eagles shredded the 49ers 31-7, but Purdy was hurt early and San Francisco was forced to run the ball basically the entire game. The Niners are 6-3 in the playoffs under Shanahan since 2021 and have not been bounced in their first game. Let’s back the 49ers with the points against the defending champs.

We have bets on the side and total in our 49ers vs Eagles prediction

NFL Best Bet: New England Patriots -3.5 over Los Angeles Chargers (-105)

Odds courtesy of bet365 at the time of publishing.

There wasn’t much faith that the Bills would have their 5-year stranglehold atop the AFC East this season. The Patriots seemed like a long shot after a 4-13 record in QB Drake Maye’s rookie season, but New England brought in former LB Mike Vrabel as head coach. Vrabel helped flip that 4-13 mark to 14-3 and propel Maye to strong MVP consideration with 4,394 passing yards and 31 TD passes. New England overcame a 1-2 start, which included a mind-boggling loss to Las Vegas in the opener, to win 10 consecutive games before melting down in the second half against Buffalo. The strike against New England is 12 of its 14 victories came against non-playoff teams, as the Pats only beat the Panthers and Bills in consecutive games early in the season.

The Chargers travel cross-country to Gillette Stadium as QB Justin Herbert seeks his first playoff victory in 3 tries. After losses to Jacksonville and Houston in the last 3 seasons, Herbert and the Lightning Bolts try to break through after a 2nd straight 11-6 regular season. Los Angeles went through a 7-1 stretch from late October through Christmas before dropping the final 2 games to Houston and Denver. The Week 18 loss to the Broncos meant nothing since Herbert sat and the Chargers had no chance at winning the AFC West. In 4 games as an underdog with Herbert starting, the Chargers posted a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS mark, including a pair of victories over the Chiefs and a home win over the Eagles.

It’s interesting how the Patriots didn’t lose a road game, but dropped 3 games in Foxboro. New England finished 8-3 ATS as a favorite, as 2 of the non-covers came in close victories over Cincinnati and Atlanta. The argument against New England and its schedule is valid, but the Pats also defeated the Buccaneers and Ravens as underdogs, both of whom had a shot to win their divisions in Week 18. Herbert hasn’t won a playoff game, and they are going into a tough environment in the cold on Sunday night against a Patriots’ team that is hosting their its postseason game since 2019.

Here are our Chargers vs Patriots prediction for SNF

NFL Best Bet: Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh Steelers Under 38.5 (-110)

Odds widely available at the time of publishing.

Pittsburgh will be predictably cold, well-under freezing, for this Monday night battle. We wouldn’t have it any other way. While the Steelers’ defense hasn’t exactly played up to its standards (see 2 remarkably bad blown coverages last week against Baltimore, resulting in 2 of the easiest touchdowns you’ll ever see), it’s also clear that the talent is there. Cameron Hayward, the defense’s team captain, was stellar in key moments last Sunday night, stifling Derrick Henry runs and in Lamar Jackson’s face for most of the contest. He had 7 tackles. Others made big plays, too. While the Steelers lack consistency in their secondary, their front-seven is as formidable as any in the NFL. After starting the season well below expectations, they’ve climbed to 12th overall in sacks, accruing 3 more last week against the ultra-elusive Jackson. Houston’s offense is below average (23rd in total EPA metrics), which means the Steelers have a chance to keep this game within distance.

On Monday, they’ll have a greater onus to hold up their team, since the Steelers’ offense will be facing arguably the league’s best unit. Despite finishing the season with a perplexing performance against the Colts (they allowed a Riley Leonard-led offense to drop 30 points on 354 yards — what?), Houston’s defense has been their stalwart unit all season. Aaron Rodgers enjoyed a comfortable pocket for nearly the entire game in Week 18, an experience that will almost certainly not repeat in this Wild Card battle. The Texans are ferocious at the line of scrimmage, #1 in the NFL in pressures and 8th overall in sack percentage (8.03%). They’re also top-3 in takeaways and 2nd in turnover margin. If the Steelers’ offense, a group that’s already simplistic and limited (16th in EPA per pass, 26th in rush yards per game), wants to succeed, they’ll need to apply maximum creativity and perfect execution.

The fact that Pittsburgh is led by one of the greatest arms in NFL history gives their offense a shot, but we still don’t feel good about the matchup. Either way, both defenses are in a much better situation. This is our favorite bet of the entire Wild Card Weekend.

Check out our Texans vs Steelers prediction for MNF