There have already been handshakes in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. The Penguins would love to avoid another handshake line, and the Mammoth would love to put themselves in a position to book another one this week. The Flyers and Golden Knights will have something to say about that. Regardless of who comes out on the right side of the final of these games, these tilts make for some great entertainment.
If you will be tuning in and want to have some action, I have picked out my 2 NHL best bets for the playoff slate on Monday, April 27th, with lines and odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Also, be sure to check out our NHL predictions for both games tonight and throughout the playoffs.
NHL best bet: Pavel Dorofeyev over 0.5 points (-110)
The Golden Knights are in a very vulnerable spot after 3 games. Being down 2-1 going into a game 4 on the road is not exactly ideal. This team and their new coach will pull every string possible to avoid being a game away from elimination on home ice. Vegas will likely lean on their top players in this game as opposed to spreading out ice time. After a 35-goal season, and considering he is currently occupying the top line and top power play, Pavel Dorofeyev certainly qualifies as one of the Golden Knights’ top players.
During a season in which the Golden Knights won the Pacific, Dorofeyev led their team in goals with 37. That was 9 goals clear of the next-highest goal scorer on the team. He also led the team in power play goals with 20, which was 7 clear of the next most power play goal scorer. This has been a chippy series and Vegas needs goals. They will make adjustments that create space and opportunities for their top scorers, like Dorofeyev, to be able to capitalize both even-strength and on the power play. At any point in the game, given his slot in the lineup, Dorofeyev will be on the ice with some combination of Jack Eichel, Ivan Barbashev, Mark Stone, and Shea Theordore among other phenomenal players. Getting pick ‘em odds for the Pacific winner’s top goal scorer to get a point is solid value.
NHL best bet: Flyers vs Penguins over 5.5 (-125)
After the first 2 games of this series were fairly quiet on the offensive side, both teams look to have found a little something offensively. Saturday’s over was the 14th in Pittsburgh’s last 20 games, and the 8th in their last 12 home games. Trends indicate a high total may be driven by the Penguins. But it obviously will not be without contributions from the Flyers, be it positive or negative. Philadelphia scored a very solid 3, 3, and 5 goals in the first 3 games of the series. They then allowed 4 goals to Pittsburgh in game 4. If the Penguins can carry any version of their form that scored 4 goals into game 5, the over has a good look considering their vulnerabilities in goal prevention.
High totals are nothing new to these teams in general. The combined over in Flyers and Penguins games this season was 88-76-8. Combining Flyers road games with Penguins home games, the over was 48-36-2. The Penguins scored the 3rd most goals per game in the NHL during the regular season, but ranked 24th in goals allowed per game. The strength of goal scoring combined with a weakness of goal prevention is a good recipe for high totals. Although it has not been with consistency, those strengths and weaknesses have reared their head in this series. With these teams only getting more familiar with one another, and both long-term and recent trends, the over has appeal.
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