The 2020 Stanley Cup playoffs are going to be the strangest in history. With no fans in attendance and the bubbles created in the 2 hub cities of Toronto and Edmonton, it will be a surreal atmosphere for whichever side lifts Lord Stanley’s cup.
In recent years we have seen many favourite falter. In the last two alone we have seen surprises as Washington and St Louis lifted their first cups after waits of 44 years and 52 years, respectively. We have also seen the Vegas Golden Knights reach the finals in their first-ever year as a franchise. Prior to that Pittsburgh, Chicago and LA dominated the postseason over a 10-year period.
How will teams react with no crowd?
The lack of crowd will play a significant part in the success of whichever team takes the grand prize and this will be a positive for some and a negative for others. Recent finalists St Louis, Boston, and Washington have thrived in their hometowns, with fans creating a Colosseum-like atmosphere to be feared by any visitors and one that forces players to skate faster, check harder and makes the heart beat faster. Others such as Toronto and Montreal have such attention from the media that even average players can get TV commercials in their cities. This has meant that any time there is a glimmer of potential success, the pressure put on the players is immense and failure is magnified. The fear of failure has harmed several teams like Toronto and the bubble could be a big help for teams that are unable to read papers, watch the news headlines, and face interview after interview.
You could say the same for teams that have underperformed in recent years. The Tampa Bay Lightning have been one of the best teams in the NHL for several seasons yet have failed to reach the final since losing to Chicago in 2015. After being swept by Columbus in 2019, the pressure of fans demanding better may have had a detrimental impact.
The two individual cities involved have undertaken huge logistical challenges, with hotels, restaurants and golf courses booked solely for the hundreds of NHL staff and players. Whilst every postseason is a psychological challenge this one is likely to be bigger than ever before, with several NHL stars such as Sean Couturier having new-born children at home, as they are in an enclosed environment for what could be months.
With so many players in one area, it would be naïve to think that there will not be some shenanigans behind the scenes to gain an edge over your opponent. We have already seen during the “friendly” games involving the New York teams and Tampa Bay vs Florida that the players are taking this seriously. Brendan Lemieux and Johnny Boychuk dropped gloves in the former and Mikhail Sergachev and Brian Boyle did the same in the latter. You can expect more of the same when rivals meet in the playoffs proper.
Game intensity and motivation
Motivation is demonstrably high but with the silence in the stands we could see that the physical sides are not as intense as they may have been with their fans cheering them on. The games between the Rangers and Hurricanes and Flames and Jets started fast with big hits being finished in the first minutes of both games. This is hardly surprising with the adrenaline rushing for the first games back. However, the coaches of all 4 sides will be demanding better discipline from their players after a total 25 power play opportunities were given by in the 2 games. During the 2019 Stanley Cup Finals, the St Louis Blues lost games due to poor discipline and game 7 of the final had just 1 powerplay in the game.
If the physical teams are not able to avoid the penalty box then the high skilled teams like Toronto, Tampa Bay and Edmonton may become more attractive as a betting proposition. The Oilers were well beaten by the Blackhawks on Saturday night but there must be a reaction from Dave Tippett’s side after such a performance.
This area will be worth watching from a betting perspective as if several teams show ill-discipline during the first few games, overs betting becomes more attractive. Powerplay goals have been a factor in winning the Stanley Cup in recent years. The last 5 winners have converted 21.5% of their powerplay opportunities during the postseason and those goals account for 21.3% of the total scored by the successful team. The 3 teams mentioned above all had conversion rates of 23% of higher in the regular season, pay attention if ill-discipline continues.
We also have the potential for injuries to play a significant part if the intensity is high. In a normal postseason the team that lifts the cup is required to win 16 games over 4 stages. In 2019, the Bruins played 24 games and the Blues played 26 by the end of game 7. The physical toll on the players involved is immense. That is even more relevant this postseason with the qualifiers potentially adding a further 5 games to this already demanding schedule.
With that in mind, it may be worth siding with the more skilled teams as the playoffs progress. With the West looking somewhat more lightweight than the East, Colorado could be one to keep on side. The most physical sides in that half of the bracket are Calgary and St Louis. It is quite possible, should they progress, that the Avs will only have to meet one of the two before the Conference Final and by that stage, their price would be much shorter than now.
Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports
Road form
Another reason to follow a team like Colorado is the need for away form. With 22 of the 24 teams involved playing away from their home ice, away form could be even more important this postseason. In the last 15 seasons, only the 2014/15 Chicago Blackhawks have lifted the Stanley Cup with more than 15 regulation losses to their name, and even then, they had 16. The ability to perform away is essential in playoff hockey and the Avs had the best away record in the entire NHL at 24-13-2. That may be a significant benefit in the current situation. Only Boston, Washington, Tampa Bay, and New York Rangers were other sides sitting on 15 or fewer losses when the season was brought to a premature end. The last 2 were on 15, with 12 games remaining. If you like trends, then this will narrow down the field.
Physical conditioning
In the early round-robin games whilst the players are still not up to full fitness it could be worth siding with unders. Players are looking gassed, the intensity and scoring drops as the game goes on. Of the 10 games we’ve seen over the opening weekend eight have gone under the number and four of those saw just three goals. Admittedly a small sample but it’s something to consider when wagering totals in the early round-robin games.
Underdogs barking
In the 10 games played over opening weekend, underdogs went 6-4 straight up. The Blackhawks, Canadiens, Blue Jackets, Wild, Coyotes, and Flyers all picked up wins.
Minnesota was the most heavily bet dog, they opened at +105 and closed -110. Montreal were the biggest odds winners at +155, they beat the Penguins 3-2 in OT on Saturday night.
The only favorites to win were the Avalanche, Flames, Rangers, and Islanders.
Injury update
After a period of no hockey, it was always likely that several players would pick up injuries in the first few games back. The Bruins would not have liked seeing their star Brad Marchand go to the locker room and missed the final 11 minutes of the exhibition game against Columbus. Coach Bruce Cassidy did not sound overly concerned but it is not the ideal start to their campaign.
Boston’s Eastern Conference rivals the Washington Capitals also have a concern over a key player after their top defenseman John Carlson picked up an injury in an altercation with Carolina’s Nino Niederreiter on Thursday. He will be monitored before the Caps take on Tampa Bay on Monday.
In the West, the Winnipeg Jets lost Mark Scheifele to a horrific injury just 5 minutes into their 4-1 defeat to the Calgary Flames in game 1 of the series. The center received a hit from Flames winger Matthew Tkachuk that Jets coach Paul Maurice called “an absolutely filthy, disgusting hit”. Scheifele was going to be pivotal to any success the Jets had this postseason. His absence left a huge hole in the faceoff department, as shown by the Flames’ Sean Monahan winning 75% of faceoffs taken in the game.
The Jets also lost their goalscoring winger Patrik Laine in the 3rd period after an altercation with Mark Giordano behind the Calgary net. The Finnish star completed a strong check on the Flames’ captain, who retaliated with a chop to the left hand of Laine, sending him to the locker room in some discomfort. Both Laine and Scheifele will see specialists in the next 24 hours but it is possible that may see neither again in the series.
Get the latest betting analysis and today’s NHL expert picks from Pickswise handicappers.
