For my money, The Game is the biggest rivalry in college football, and that’s coming from an alum of an SEC school. Year after year, Ohio State vs. Michigan carries the weight of the college football world, especially recently – as a national champion has arisen from this matchup each of the last 2 years. With the Buckeyes boasting an undefeated record as the nation’s top team, championship aspirations remain in Columbus yet again. However, Ryan Day and the ‘Bucks have some unfinished business to tend to after the Wolverines dealt them a horrendous loss at the ‘Shoe last year – a loss that left Ohio State fans curious if Day was the man for the job long term. Needless to say, I think he put those fears to rest with that national title last year.
With another anticipated matchup in the fierce rivalry between Michigan and Ohio State, it’s time to lock in a Same Game Parlay at +305 odds. Let’s break down each leg before you check out our Week 14 NCAAF predictions for the rest of rivalry week.
Jeremiah Smith (OSU) anytime touchdown (-130)
Michigan Team Total Under 17.5 (-155)
Ohio State -13.5 (+126)
Ohio State vs. Michigan Same Game Parlay odds: +305
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Jeremiah Smith (OSU) anytime touchdown (-130)
Jeremiah Smith missed the 42-9 win over Rutgers last week, but he said he should be good to go when asked about his availability on teammate Caleb Downs’ podcast, “Downs 2 Business.” When Smith plays, he typically scores, so this is really a no-brainer at this price. In fact, Smith has 10 touchdowns in 10 games this year, and while he hasn’t scored in every single game, the only times he was held out of the end zone was against Texas and UCLA – though he was injured in the first half against UCLA.
Smith scored the lone Buckeye touchdown against Michigan last year, and considering Michigan is outside the top 75 in both passing downs PPA and PPA per pass sans garbage time since Week 9, Smith seems to be good value to find pay dirt once again.
Michigan team total under 17.5 (-155)
Ohio State hasn’t allowed more than 16 points all season, so why would the Buckeyes start here against a Michigan offense that is outside the top 50 in PPA per play and outside the top 75 in finishing drives over the last 5 weeks? Over the course of the whole year, Michigan averages less than 30 points per game, which puts the Wolverines outside the top 50 in scoring. Moreover, the Wolverines have struggled with consistency in the red zone, which is probably unsettling for Michigan fans given that Ohio State is arguably the best red-zone defense in the country. For reference, OSU is just 1 of 2 teams allowing fewer than 10 red-zone touchdowns to this point.
Michigan’s explosiveness has been non-existent over the last few weeks, and I don’t expect it to surface all of a sudden in wintry conditions at the Big House on Saturday. Though I admit Michigan’s strength is running the ball, I don’t envision the Wolverines having much success maintaining methodical drives against this Buckeye defensive front – one that has controlled the line of scrimmage all year.
Ohio State Buckeyes -13.5 over Michigan Wolverines alternate spread (+126)
I’m on record saying Ohio State will run the score up if given the chance, and I firmly stand by that despite the line continuing to move toward Michigan. While Ryan Day and the Buckeyes may deny it publicly, they are laser-focused for this game, just like they would be for a national championship game. It sounds crazy to a neutral college football fan that’s not emotionally attached to either team, but as an Ohio kid myself – I can promise you this is more than just your average regular season, rivalry game.
I don’t need to break down the stats; anyone following the sport knows how much better Ohio State is on both sides of the ball. The same could be said going into last year’s game, but that Michigan defense was loaded with now-NFL talent. The Wolverines still have future NFL players on this years’ defense, but – in my opinion – not to the caliber of Mason Graham, Josiah Stewart, Kenneth Grant, and Will Johnson.
Michigan is banged up, and while Smith and Carnell Tate missed last game, I expect everyone that can walk without more than a slight limp to play in this game. The Game has been circled on Day’s calendar since the moment the Buckeyes left their home field in disappointment last year. With a new signal caller on offense, look for the Buckeyes to be more aggressive and not only cover, but win by at least 2 touchdowns.
Read our full Ohio State vs. Michigan prediction, including picks on the side and total
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