One of the biggest games of Week 12 will be played in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, where the Oklahoma Sooners visit the Crimson Tide. Sitting at 7-2, this is a make-or-break game for Oklahoma as it pertains to the College Football Playoff. A loss here would likely put the Sooners on the wrong side of the CFP bubble. Meanwhile, Alabama continues to cruise along following an 11-point victory over LSU in which the Tide really didn’t even play well. Undefeated in SEC play, Alabama controls its own destiny when it comes to making the SEC Championship — and playing in that game should effectively guarantee the Tide’s spot in the 12-team postseason tournament.
With so much at stake on Saturday night in Tuscaloosa, an Oklahoma vs Alabama Same Game Parlay is in order. Here are my favorite parlay picks for this SEC showdown with odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Once you lock this in, make sure to find the rest of our NCAAF predictions – our college football handicappers went a combined 23-13 on last Saturday’s slate!
Alabama -5.5 (-122)
Ty Simpson (ALA) Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-114)
John Mateer (OU) anytime touchdown scorer (+155)
Oklahoma vs Alabama Same Game Parlay odds: +632
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Alabama Crimson Tide -5.5 over Oklahoma Sooners (-122)
Alabama finds itself in an interesting revenge spot after Oklahoma dealt the Tide their third loss last season, which kept them out of the College Football Playoff. This time around, Alabama will be in the friendly confines of Bryant-Denny Stadium — where the Crimson Tide should have a massive edge in their execution. The Tide play much cleaner football than the Sooners, as ‘Bama sits fourth nationally in turnover margin and top-35 in penalties per game. For comparison, Oklahoma is outside the top 95 in both metrics, and playing on the road in a hostile environment certainly won’t help that cause.
Alabama has been great defensively at home. In fact, not a single opponent has surpassed 20 points in T-Town. The Sooners may find some success with QB John Mateer as a runner, but they are going to need more than that to win this game or even cover. Considering the Sooners are 120th in PPA per pass and 125th in passing downs PPA since Week 7, it’s hard to trust Mateer as a passer — especially against the strength of Alabama’s stop unit.
Speaking of the pass, Alabama is elite in this department. Ty Simspon is cruising right along with just 1 interception, spearheading a unit that is top 15 in passing yards per game and tied for fourth nationally with 25 passing touchdowns on the season. That’s not a good omen for Oklahoma, which was carved up by the best passing offenses on its schedule to this point. It’s a juicy number, but give me the Tide at the last -5.5 in the market. Laying 6 is just fine, as well, as long as it’s -110 or better.
Ty Simpson (ALA) Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-114)
This number feels almost entirely too good to be true. The only game in which Simpson failed to throw 2 touchdown passes was last week against LSU, and while some may think this game against Oklahoma will be similarly low scoring, I actually like points in this matchup because of Alabama’s passing attack. Like I previously touched on, Oklahoma’s pass defense can be exposed — as evidenced by it sitting 53rd in PPA per pass and 126th in passing downs PPA since Week 7. Moreover, the Sooners have surrendered 11 30-yard passes and 7 40-yard passes; both marks rank outside the top 40 nationally. On a defense that grades so well overall, you would expect the secondary to be able to better contain deep passes.
Simpson is going to be relied upon heavily in this game due to Alabama’s lack of a reliable rushing attack. It would shock me if he doesn’t find the endzone twice. The price is just too good to pass up for this parlay.
John Mateer (OU) anytime touchdown scorer (+155)
Like Simpson, Mateer is going to be heavily involved in this match — albeit in a different capacity. Known as a dual-threat quarterback, Mateer is extremely effective as a runner. He has found the endzone 6 times this season, most recently against Tennessee — and that rushing momentum should carry over when Oklahoma plays Alabama.
Mobile QBs have given the Tide fits at times, as FSU’s Tommy Castellanos, Missouri’s Beau Pribula and South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers all scored against this defense. Having carried the rock 29 combined times over his last 2 games, look for Mateer to get multiple cracks at crossing the goal line on Saturday.
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