The Red River Shootout is always a headline matchup, and this week will be no different when the Oklahoma Sooners and the Texas Longhorns meet at 3:30 pm ET at the Cotton Bowl in Arlington. The Sooners come into this contest with a perfect 5-0 record, and while the Longhorns boast a winning 3-2 record, both losses were against the only power conference opponents they faced. Another loss here and Texas is effectively out of the College Football Playoff race, if it isn’t already. Here are my favorite Oklahoma vs Texas Same Game Parlay picks for this now-SEC rivalry matchup. Don’t forget to check out our NCAAF predictions for all of Week 7’s biggest games.
Under 44.5 (-110)
Tory Blaylock (OU) anytime TD (+135)
Oklahoma vs Texas Same Game Parlay odds: +410
Odds courtesy of Fanatics Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Use their Oklahoma-Texas profit boost to increase the odds to north of +600!
Oklahoma Sooners vs Texas Longhorns under 44.5 (-110)
Neither team plays with what I would refer to as a notably-fast tempo. Texas ranks 77th in seconds per play, and while Oklahoma is top 30 in the same metric, a potentially less-than-100% John Mateer may lead to the Sooners playing at an average or below-average pace compared to what they played at with a healthy Mateer.
The Sooners are likely to meet more resistance against Texas’ defense than they have at any point this season. By all accounts, the Longhorns still boast one of the top defenses in the country, ranking top-15 in PPA per play, yards per play and third-down conversion rate. In fact, they are in the top 50 in every defensive metric that I evaluate most every week.
On the other side, Texas’ offensive inefficiencies are well-known at this point. Steve Sarkisian and the Longhorns may have another gear to shift into offensively given their state of desperation to save their season against their rival, but we haven’t seen that against quality competition yet this year. I find that tough to count on following a disappointing road trip to the Swamp, especially against an Oklahoma defense that has been elite in every sense of the word. The Sooners are top 5 nationally in multiple key defensive metrics including yards per play, PPA per play, third-down conversion rate, havoc generated and points allowed per quality drive.
Read our full Oklahoma vs Texas prediction, including picks on the side and total
Tory Blaylock (OU) anytime touchdown scorer (+140)
When Jaydn Ott transferred to Oklahoma, many thought he would immediately take over the primary role in the backfield and excel in it. However, that hasn’t happened. Ott has almost been an afterthought, as freshman Tory Blaylock has emerged as the main back. He has double-digit carries in 3 straight games, along with 3 total touchdowns this season – which is tied for the lead on the team behind Mateer.
Blaylock hasn’t been the best against top-tier competition this year, but his workload should remain constant – especially with Mateer returning from injury ahead of schedule. For what it’s worth, I’m not sold on Mateer’s hand being 100%. As such, I suspect Texas’ defense will hone-in on him as a runner in scoring situations, leaving opportunities for Blaylock in RPO sets near the goal line. Texas’ defense is not the only one that will focus on Mateer; expect bettors to gravitate toward his touchdown prop more than any player in this game.
With added emphasis on Mateer on the field and in the betting market at a worse number, Blaylock stands out as the next-best option – especially when you consider Texas has surrendered a rushing touchdown in every game in which its opponents scored points. Look for Blaylock to continue that trend at a very nice price. With a pair of uncorrelated parlay legs, the odds are very juicy for us in this SGP. Let’s get to the window.
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