The College Football Playoff action on New Year’s Day wraps up with a primetime Sugar Bowl matchup between a couple of teams hailing from the SEC in the Ole Miss Rebels and the Georgia Bulldogs. This will be a rematch from earlier in the season, when Ole Miss gave up 17 unanswered, fourth-quarter points to blow a lead and lose in Athens. This time around, Georgia enters this contest after a long layoff following its SEC title, while Ole Miss already has a playoff win on its resume having played just a week and a half ago in its dominant victory over Tulane.
Kick-off is scheduled for 8:00 pm ET, and the action will be aired on ESPN. To get you set for the final quarterfinal matchup, I’ve put together an Ole Miss vs. Georgia Same Game Parlay with +750 odds. Let’s get into the parlay picks, and make sure you find all of our NCAAF predictions for the rest of the college football postseason.
Ole Miss 1Q ML (+154)
Georgia ML (-245)
Nate Frazier (UGA) 60+ rushing yards (-144)
Ole Miss vs. Georgia Same Game Parlay Odds: +750
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Ole Miss Rebels 1Q ML over Georgia Bulldogs (+154)
I’m already on Ole Miss 1Q +3.5, and the handicap is exactly the same here, except I’m opting for the money line instead of the spread to juice the parlay odds up a bit. Georgia has had a tendency of starting slow in power conference games, and with a long layoff following its conference championship, that could be magnified on Thursday night. For what it’s worth, Georgia averages just 4 points per first quarter away from home, while Ole Miss averages over a touchdown and has scored an average of 12.7 per opening quarter in its last 3 games. Ole Miss has already done this once against Georgia this year, and while that doesn’t necessarily mean anything here, the situational advantage of having played 10 days ago versus a month ago makes me think the Rebels can do it again in a revenge spot.
Georgia Bulldogs ML over Ole Miss Rebels (-245)
Having said all that, I still expect Georgia to win the game. After all, head coach Kirby Smart is one of, if not the best in-game adjuster in the sport, and given all the slow starts by the Bulldogs this year, trailing after the first quarter wouldn’t bother them in the slightest.
Georgia’s defense has improved since the first time these teams met, and its aggression has been evident down the stretch. The ‘Dawgs didn’t see an offense as consistent as Ole Miss’ in the final month of the season, but they stifled Texas, Georgia Tech, and Alabama in 3 of the final 4 weeks – holding those teams to 26 combined points. As the game wears on, look for Georgia’s defense to win the trenches more and more, eventually wearing on Ole Miss.
That’s exactly what I expect to happen on Georgia’s offensive possessions as well, via its rushing attack. Ole Miss really struggles defending the run, which is not very settling against a mobile quarterback in Gunnar Stockton and a strong stable of running backs.
Find our Ole Miss vs. Georgia prediction for full-game picks on side and total in the Sugar Bowl
Nate Frazier (UGA) 60+ Rush Yards (-144)
Speaking of running backs, I’m targeting Nate Frazier to round out this SGP. Frazier has been a key piece of Georgia’s rushing attack since the Bulldogs’ controversial win against Auburn, and has excelled in that role. The sophomore has rushed for over 850 yards and 5.4 yards per attempt, and he’s carried the ball at least 12 times in each of Georgia’s final 7 games.
As I alluded to, Ole Miss has one of the worst run defenses in the country. The Rebels finished the regular season 129th in PPA per rush allowed, and they were 94th in rushing success rate allowed – both excluding garbage time. Furthermore, Ole Miss yielded 4.26 yards per attempt, which was outside the top 70. Georgia is top-20 offensively in each of those aforementioned metrics.
Frazier has surpassed 60 yards against 4 of Georgia’s final 6 power conference opponents, and given his role as the lead back, look for him to do it again against a swiss-cheese, Ole Miss run defense.
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