The College Football Playoff rolls along on Thursday with a fascinating game between the Oregon Ducks and Texas Tech Red Raiders in the Orange Bowl. The Ducks are coming off a win over James Madison for Dan Lanning’s first playoff win as the Oregon head coach, while Texas Tech was idle following its victory over BYU in the Big 12 title game. Thursday’s Rose Bowl action kicks off at 12:00 pm ET on ESPN. To get you set for this matchup, I have pieced together my best bets in the form of a Oregon vs Texas Tech Orange Bowl parlay. Let’s get into the picks, but don’t forget to check out our NCAAF predictions for odds and picks on every bowl and College Football Playoff game.
Oregon ML (-130)
1st Half Under 26.5 (-125)
Malik Benson (ORE) over 41.5 receiving yards
Oregon vs Texas Tech Same Game Parlay odds: +520
Head to BetMGM for the best odds on our Oregon vs Texas Tech parlay, where new users can click here to sign up now and get +1500 odds on Michigan or Texas to win with their first $10 wager!
Oregon Ducks ML over Texas Tech Red Raiders (-130)
Oregon has a few edges that it should be able to exploit in this matchup. For starters, Dante Moore should also be getting back 2 of his top 3 wide receivers in Dakorien Moore and Gary Bryant Jr. for this matchup, to join the dynamic and explosive Malik Benson on the outside. This gives the Ducks a formidable trio of targets at the receiver position, to go along with All-American tight end Kenyon Sadiq at the tight end spot. Oregon is expected to have its top 3 running backs available for this matchup as well, so it’s hard not to be confident in the Ducks’ ability to manufacture offense in this one, even against an excellent Red Raiders defense.
While Joey McGuire’s defense has been one of the top 5 units in the sport this season, Texas Tech’s issue in this game could be its offense. The Red Raiders certainly have a good offense — albeit one that has been the beneficiary of a somewhat weak schedule of opposing defenses — but there have been clear limitations for this group both on the ground and inside the red zone this season. After all, Texas Tech is just 50th in rushing success rate and 28th in points per drive on offense. In a game that is projected to be close throughout, just one or two failed red zone trips could decide the outcome. Ultimately, I can only side with Oregon in a game where having the better quarterback (and head coach) should hold significant weight.
Read our full Oregon vs Texas Tech prediction for the Orange Bowl
Oregon vs Texas Tech 1st Half Under 26.5 (-125)
While these offenses can be explosive, both of these teams are anchored by their stout defenses. In fact, each unit ranks inside the top 15 in success rate and points per drive allowed on the season. Furthermore, the Red Raiders are 1st in the nation in opponent EPA per play and tops in the country in both Early Downs EPA and quality drive rate allowed, while the Ducks sit inside the top 10 in those same metrics. While some might point to Oregon’s lackluster performance in the 4th quarter against James Madison as a sign of what a better offense could do to the Ducks defense, we can expect a much stronger showing from Oregon in for a game where it’ll need to be locked in for 60 minutes. Look for both teams to start off a bit slow, so let’s target the 1st half under.
Malik Benson (ORE) over 41.5 receiving yards (-110)
Malik Benson has been a staple in the Oregon passing game this season and the veteran wideout should see plenty of action in this one, particularly if Oregon gets in a negative game state against a stout Texas Tech defensive front. Benson has been a major contributor in the passing game and is arguably the most trusty weapon for Dante Moore at the moment, which certainly points us in the direction of the Florida State product clearing this number on Thursday. Ben has racked up 50 or more receiving yards in each of the last four games, so let’s trust the speedy wide receiver to deliver another strong performance in the biggest game of the season.
Click here to add us to your Google preferred sources and never miss a story
