The NFL playoffs get underway on Saturday, and the highlight of the day comes in the NFC North, where the Packers will take on the Bears at Soldier Field. Given how the previous couple of meetings between these teams have gone, we can expect this game to come down to the wire in Chicago. Our experts have been on a roll with our Same Game Parlays in the NFL, cashing 4 in the past 3 weeks, so let’s keep the momentum rolling with my Packers vs Bears parlay for this 8:00 pm ET kickoff on Amazon Prime Video! You can also check out our NFL picks for EVERY playoff matchup after our experts finished the season up +78.1 units!
Packers -1 (-110)
Under 44.5 (-108)
Luther Burden III over 3.5 receptions (+100)
Packers vs Bears parlay odds: +600
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components don’t need to be correlated in order to drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with backing Chicago wide receiver Luther Burden III to exceed his receptions prop, even in a losing effort. Even if Burden does have a strong game, there is no reason why Green Bay can’t take care of business in this one. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
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Green Bay Packers -1 over Chicago Bears (-110)
Even though they ended the season with a division title, I think the love for the Bears has gotten a little out of hand given their statistical profile this season. Green Bay should have some positive regression coming against a Chicago team that has been unsustainably good in fourth quarters this season. In fact, the Bears have picked up 6 wins this season when trailing with 2 minutes remaining in the game. It’s also worth mentioning that Chicago has played a fairly easy schedule, and rookie quarterback Caleb Williams has also been at his best against weaker defenses, which he won’t see in this matchup against a stout Packers defense, even without star linebacker Micah Parsons in the lineup.
On the other side, the Packers offense should relish an opportunity to take on this beleaguered Bears defense, a unit that ranks 23rd in EPA per play and 26th in success rate allowed on the year. Both teams are very familiar with each other given their proximity as division rivals, but when we take Green Bay’s playoff experience and the advantages that Jordan Love and Matt LaFleur’s offense should hold over a struggling Bears defense into consideration, it’s hard for me to look anywhere but Green Bay in this spot.
Check out NFL expert Kevin Rogers’ Packers vs Bears prediction after he finished the regular season with a 34-19 spread record for +32.4 units!
Under 44.5 (-108)
From a historical perspective, playoff games that take place outdoors tend to be lower-scoring affairs, as the Under is hitting at a 68% clip in games of this nature dating back to 2004. It’s no surprise that offenses are more likely to be more deliberate and cautious in an elimination game setting, while defenses tend to hold an advantage in the colder temperatures that we see in most outdoor playoff games. Look for a similar story to play out in the Windy City on Saturday, especially since temperatures are expected to be frigid, to go along with sustained wind gusts of nearly 15 miles per hour. With that in mind, I’m looking for both sides to start slow and ease their way into this elimination game, making the Under my preferred wager on the game total.
Find out our Packers vs Bears TD scorer best bets at +140 and +235 odds
Luther Burden III (CHI) over 3.5 receptions (+100)
The emergence of rookie wide receiver Luther Burden III has been a welcome sight for a Bears offense that really needed a spark in the passing game heading into the season. The Missouri product has slowly grown into his role within this offense over the last couple of months, and the recent results have been rock solid, with Burden clearing this reception prop number in 4 of his previous 5 games heading into this one. The rookie has established a good rapport with Williams, and it wouldn’t be a shock if the rookie quarterback targeted Burden on some key downs in his first high-pressure playoff start as an NFL quarterback. Let’s grab this prop at plus-money odds while we still can and hopefully land a winner on our Packers vs Bears SGP.
Get JutPicks’ best Packers vs Bears player prop bet for Saturday’s matchup, targeting Kyle Monangai
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