Packers vs Lions Picks, Props & Parlay: Best Bets for NFL Thanksgiving

Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers battle Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving in the NFL.

Andrew Wilsher

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Managing Editor of Pickswise. Born and raised in jolly old London, England, with an undying love for the NFL, NBA, soccer and horse racing. A big-time sports bettor who loves futures markets and backing underdogs. Long-suffering New York Jets fan. For Andrew Wilsher media enquiries, please email contact@pickswise.com.

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Packers vs Lions predictions & NFL Thanksgiving picks

Packers vs Lions best bet: Packers ML (+135)

Thanksgiving Day features a trio of excellent NFL games, and one of the most consequential matchups of the weekend comes in the NFC North, where the Detroit Lions are set to host the Green Bay Packers in a rematch of a Week 1 contest in which Green Bay dominated the proceedings. Both of these teams have been up-and-down all season long, with the Lions struggling to generate consistent success against strong defenses without the services of Ben Johnson as offensive coordinator, while the Packers are also searching for more consistency on a week-to-week basis on offense.

Even in last week’s convincing win over Minnesota, Jordan Love and company were still held to less than 300 total yards of offense and largely benefitted from being plus-three in turnovers. However, what Green Bay does have is a very strong defense, which has the ability to generate pressure on Jared Goff and force the veteran quarterback into mistakes, much like we saw in the Week 1 meeting between these teams. As long as the Packers can somewhat limit the effectiveness of Jahmyr Gibbs on the ground, they should do a solid job of getting this Detroit offense off the field.

As for the hosts, the Lions have typically been an excellent team at home in the Dam Campbell era, but it has been tough sledding for Detroit in its recent home games. In fact, the Lions have been struggling against inferior competition, with Detroit losing outright as a significant favorite to the Vikings and needing overtime to get past the lowly Giants last week. This is not the same offense that we are used to seeing out of the Lions, and Johnson’s absence has clearly been felt in the first season with a new play-caller at the controls. On the other side of the ball, Detroit’s defense has allowed a combined 54 points in its last 2 home games against the likes of J.J. McCarthy and Jameis Winston. That doesn’t bode well for the Lions in this NFC North showdown.

Packers vs Lions prediction: Under 49.5 (-110)

While games involving Detroit at Ford Field have had the propensity to sail lover the total, this is an instance where I’m bullish on a lower-scoring game given how both of these offenses have looked of late. Yes, Detroit did score 34 points against the Giants a week ago, but the offense was far from crisp and it really took a couple of tremendous individual effort plays from Jahmyr Gibbs in order to come up with pivotal touchdowns against a Giants rushing defense that is among the worst in football.

The Packers present a much tougher matchup, and we saw Green Bay completely bottle up Goff, Gibbs and company earlier this season. On the other side, the Packers offense is dealing with a litany of injuries at the skill positions and Green Bay is still very much a run-first team at the moment. With that in mind, let’s look for a grind-it-out affair in this NFC North battle.

Find out all of our expert Packers vs Lions picks for today’s Thanksgiving Day opener

Packers vs Lions player prop bets

Best Packers vs Lions player prop bet: Jordan Love over 9.5 rushing yards (-118)

The Packers do not call a whole lot of designed runs for their quarterback, but Love will probably be under duress a fair amount on Thursday – forcing him to improvise. It would be no surprise if he is forced to tuck it and run more than a few times in this matchup against Aidan Hutchinson and a Detroit defense that ranks 8th in the NFL with 32 sacks (Hutchinson has 8.5). The Lions have faced the second-most QB rushing attempts in the entire league (63), which have turned into 212 yards. Love has recorded double-digit rushing yards in 7 of the last 10 outings. Against Detroit, he produced a 23-yard performance last season and a 39-yard effort during the 2023 campaign.

See our best Packers vs Lions player prop bets for today

Packers vs Lions TD scorer best bet: Isaac TeSlaa (DET) anytime touchdown scorer (+500)

To wrap up our Packers vs Lions TD scorer best bets, we’ll back another Lions pass catcher who flies under the radar — Isaac TeSlaa, the 3rd-round rookie out of Arkansas. TeSlaa is another member of the Lions with an injury tag heading into TNF. Still, he participated in Tuesday’s walkthrough and should be another focal point of the Lions offense after playing over 40% of the snaps on Sunday. With 4 Lions skill players, Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, David Montgomery and Jameson Williams, all having odds shorter than +200, I’m willing to take shots on an offense with an implied team total of 26 points and a total of nearly 50 points.

After a +525 winner on TNF last week, get JutPicks’ full analysis for his Packers vs Lions touchdown scorer best bets for Thanksgiving

Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions Same Game Parlay

After cashing SGPs at +753, +750 and +450 odds recently, don’t miss our Packers vs Lions Same Game Parlay at HUGE +1200 odds below

Packers ML (+135)

For the first leg of our Packers vs Lions Same Game Parlay, we’re going to be backing the visitors on the money line. Both of these teams have been up-and-down all season long, with the Lions struggling to generate consistent success against strong defenses without the services of Ben Johnson as offensive coordinator, while the Packers are also searching for more consistency on a week-to-week basis on offense. However, what Green Bay does have is a very strong defense, which has the ability to generate pressure on Jared Goff and force the veteran quarterback into mistakes, much like we saw in the Week 1 meeting between these teams.

he Lions have typically been an excellent team at home in the Dam Campbell era, but it has been tough sledding for Detroit in its recent home games. In fact, the Lions have been struggling against inferior competition, with Detroit losing outright as a significant favorite to the Vikings and needing overtime to get past the lowly Giants last week. Detroit’s defense has allowed a combined 54 points in its last pair of home games against the likes of J.J. McCarthy and Jameis Winston. That doesn’t bode well for the Lions against a much stronger opponent this week.

Under 49.5 (-110)

This is an instance where I’m bullish on a lower-scoring game given how both of these offenses have looked of late. While Detroit did score 34 points against the Giants a week ago, the offense was far from crisp and it took a couple of tremendous individual effort plays from Jahmyr Gibbs in order to come up with pivotal touchdowns against a Giants rushing defense that is among the worst in football. The Packers present a much tougher matchup, and we saw Green Bay completely bottle up Goff, Gibbs and company earlier this season. On the other side, the Packers offense is dealing with a litany of injuries at the skill positions and Green Bay is still very much a run-first team at the moment. Let’s roll with the under at the current number.

David Montgomery over 9.5 rush attempts (+108)

Given the fact that the Lions have leaned heavily on Jahmyr Gibbs to spark an otherwise sputtering offense in recent weeks, there should be plenty of opportunities for backup running back David Montgomery to shoulder more of the load on the ground in a game against a Green Bay defense that bottled up Gibbs very effectively back in Week 1. Not only did Montgomery finish with 11 carries in that Week 1 matchup, but he’s also cleared this number in 7 of 11 games this season. Let’s bank on that trend to continue on Thanksgiving Day.