The top 2 seeds are safely through to the AFC Championship Game, as the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots will battle for a spot in the Super Bowl on Sunday afternoon in Denver. Well, “safely” may be a bit of a stretch. The Broncos lost starting QB Bo Nix for the remainder of the playoffs after he went down late in the Divisional Round against Buffalo with an ankle fracture.
I have been cashing Same Game Parlays left and right throughout the season, so let’s keep the momentum rolling with my SGP for this 3:00 pm ET kickoff on CBS. Also be sure to check out our full Patriots vs Broncos predictions.
Patriots -5.5 (-105)
Under 42.5 (-112)
Rhamondre Stevenson to record 60+ rushing yards (+157)
Parlay odds: +675
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as New England running back Rhamondre Stevenson racking up a decent chunk of yardage would obviously work well with a Patriots win and cover. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with also backing the under. But even if Stevenson fares well, there is no reason why the under can’t cash. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
Patriots -5.5 (-105)
It was a pyrrhic victory for Denver this past Saturday. Just moments after the Broncos finished off the Bills in overtime, head coach Sean Payton shockingly announced Nix’s demise. Just like that, it will be Jarrett Stidham under center for the home team. In his entire 6-year NFL career (which began in New England for 2 seasons), Stidham has played in just 20 games while completing only 59.4 percent of his passes with as many interceptions as touchdowns (8 each). Denver’s offense already wasn’t very good, in part because J.K. Dobbins went down with a foot injury in Week 10. Now it has to face one of the better defenses in the league with a backup quarterback. As for the Patriots, they are looking good. After rolling to the AFC East title, they disposed of he Chargers 16-3 and then blasted the Texans 28-16. Give me the visitors to prevail by the necessary margin this weekend.
Under 42.5 (-112)
Championship games are supposed to be high on entertainment, but that is unlikely to be the case with this one. This will probably be a thoroughly unwatchable affair – especially if you are there in person and braving frigid temperatures (and, for Broncos fans, almost certainly watching their team lose). Each club is led by its defense. In the regular season, Denver’s D ranked #2 overall, #3 in scoring, #2 against the run, #7 against the pass, #2 in yards per pass attempt allowed and #1 in sacks by a mile. New England’s defense was #8 overall, #4 in scoring and #6 against the run. After holding the Chargers to just a field goal in the wild-card round, the Patriots forced a ridiculous 5 Texans turnovers this past weekend. They are going to throw all kinds of looks at Stidham and should be able to dominate this game from start to finish.
Rhamondre Stevenson to record 60+ rushing yards (+157)
Stevenson appears to be New England’s RB1 for the playoffs. Through 2 games, the Oklahoma product has rushed 26 times for 123 yards to go along with 7 receptions on 8 targets for 86 yards. Backfield mate TreVeyon Henderson got fewer carries in the first 2 rounds (21) and gained just 52 yards in addition to making 2 catches on 3 targets for 7 yards. Henderson was productive during the regular season, but he is a rookie – so it does make some sense that head coach Mike Vrabel appears to be rolling with a more experienced running back (Stevenson is in his fifth season – he was on the Patriots when they reached the playoffs in 2021 with Mac Jones under center). Stevenson amassed 53 and 60 yards in New England’s first 2 playoff games this year. He also wrapped up the regular season with a 131-yard outburst against Miami. I’m expecting a conservative, run-heavy game script for both teams on Sunday. As such, Stevenson should get lots of carries – and lots of opportunities to reach the 60-yard mark.
Click here to add us to your Google preferred sources and never miss a story
