Coming into the season, everyone thought their eyes would be glued to Big Noon Kickoff the day after Halloween when Penn State visited Ohio State. Instead, the Nittany Lions failed to live up to expectations, fired their coach and lost their starting quarterback to a season-ending injury seemingly in the blink of an eye. Now they head to Ohio Stadium as nearly 3-score underdogs and are staring a losing season right in the face.
Despite the Nittany Lions’ unexpected losses and spiral down the rankings, this game still presents betting opportunities. I found a few spots I like in this Big Ten matchup, and I have parlayed them together in a Penn State vs. Ohio State Same Game Parlay at +325 odds.
Let’s break down each leg, and you can also check out our NCAAF predictions for more than 30 other games this weekend.
Bo Jackson (OSU) 60+ rushing yards (-115)
Julian Sayin (OSU) 2+ touchdown passes (-160)
Ethan Grunkemeyer (PSU) 1+ interception (-180)
Penn State vs Ohio State same game parlay odds: +325
Odds courtesy of Bet365 Sportsbook at the time of publishing
Bo Jackson (OSU) 60+ rushing yards (-115)
Lamar “Bo” Jackson not only has one of the coolest names in the sport, but the freshman seems to have taken over the lead running back role in the Ohio State backfield. He is the only Ohio State running back with double-digit carries in each of his last 4 games, and, on paper, he has a very good matchup upcoming against this Penn State defense. The Nittany Lions rank 100th in standard downs PPA and 128th in PPA per rush outside of garbage time since Week 5, which shows in the box score. They were gashed on the ground to the tune of 269 rushing yards against UCLA and 245 yards against Iowa, and even the top 2 running backs for Northwestern combined for 137 yards on 32 carries. Expecting OSU will play with a decent lead for a majority of this game, I like Jackson to be the primary beneficiary and surpass this number like he did in 4 straight appearances to start the year.
Julian Sayin (OSU) 2+ touchdown passes (-160)
The true sophomore quarterback has impressed in his first season as the starter. Through his first 7 starts, Julian Sayin is 156-for-195, an eye-popping 80% completion percentage, with 19 touchdowns and just 3 interceptions. With a star-studded pass-catching group, Sayin has thrown at least 2 touchdowns in every single game since Week 1 against Texas. In fact, he has 3 in every home game since then. While Penn State may be the best stop-unit Sayin has seen since Texas, the Nittany Lions have leaked oil throughout the season – which is something Oregon QB Dante Moore and UCLA QB Nico Iamaleava were able to take advantage of in their multi-touchdown performances against Penn State. Sayin, while at least a year less experienced, is of the same ilk as those guys – maybe even better from a talent perspective. He certainly has the better receivers, so let’s look for Sayin to find the endzone at least twice through the air.
Check out our full Penn State vs Ohio State prediction, including picks on side and total
Ethan Grunkemeyer (PSU) 1+ interception (-180)
Like Drew Allar, freshman QB Ethan Grunkemeyer grew up in Ohio as a Buckeyes fan. Unlike Allar, Grunkemeyer is actually from a northern suburb of Columbus, so he was even more entrenched in Buckeye nation than Allar – who is from a suburb of Cleveland. Unfortunately for Grunkemeyer, he will be in opposing colors on Saturday when he makes the trip to Ohio Stadium as the starting quarterback of the Nittany Lions. The game at Iowa before Penn State’s bye was his first start as a college signal-caller, and it left a bit to be desired. He completed just 15 of 28 passes for 93 yards and was picked off twice, although neither of those throws were deemed turnover-worthy plays per PFF.
Iowa’s defense is solid, but this Ohio State defense is in a class of its own. The Buckeyes are extremely strong against the pass, boasting top-20 marks in passing downs PPA, PPA per pass and havoc generated outside of garbage time since Week 5. They will likely harass the freshman quarterback all game long. Given his level of inexperience while playing on the road against one of the best defenses in the country, I have a hard time envisioning Grunkemeyer keeping a clean sheet in this one – especially if the Nittany Lions find themselves facing a significant deficit at any point.
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