Joe Champion
One month after Rory McIlroy’s momentous, career-slam-sealing triumph at the Masters, golf’s elite do battle for the 2nd Major title of the season, the PGA Championship, at a course the Northern Irishman knows better than almost any other. Who will stand tall come Sunday evening? Let’s break down the PGA Championship contenders for this week.
2025 PGA Championship contenders: Can McIlroy or Scheffler triumph?
Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina, provided the backdrop for McIlroy’s first PGA Tour victory, at the 2010 Quail Hollow Championship, and he’s since won the tournament 3 more times under its Wells Fargo banner in 2015, 2021 and 2024. Simply put, the Masters champion couldn’t have picked a more suitable course for his return to the Major arena, and it’s difficult to see him not coming close to contending for the iconic Wanamaker Trophy come Sunday afternoon.
A par-71 layout measuring exactly 7,600 total yards, Quail Hollow has always played into the hands of longer hitters and, with thunderstorms softening the track in the build-up to the PGA Championship, McIlroy will be licking his lips at the prospect of a quick Major double after a decade-long wait for his 5th. However, his course record, coupled with his superb form which continued with a top-10 finish at a much-less-suitable Philadelphia Cricket Club in last week’s Truist Championship, has not escaped the attention of the oddsmakers, who make him no bigger than +450 to win again in elite company.
His chance is clear, as is that of Scottie Scheffler, who blew away the Byron Nelson field a fortnight ago before skipping the Truist. The world #1 has unfinished business with this tournament after his run-in with the Louisville Police Department scuppered his PGA Championship bid at Valhalla last year. Scheffler, taken away in handcuffs prior to the first round in scarcely believable circumstances 12 months ago, has the bit between his teeth but he’s never played Quail Hollow in competitive strokeplay and he won just half a point for a dominant US team at the 2022 Presidents Cup, held at the same venue.
Both will have their supporters and, of the 2, McIlroy’s greater affinity with the course tilts the balance in his favor, but a number of their main rivals are starting to put it all together and represent better value at much more generous odds. Let’s get into my PGA Championship best bets and golf predictions.
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2025 PGA Championship best bet: Justin Thomas (+2200)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Bryson DeChambeau, the reigning US Open champion, last year’s runner-up at Valhalla, and a winner at LIV Korea on his most recent start, will be a popular pick but it’s 2-time US PGA champion Justin Thomas who looks a rock-solid option at a venue where he captured this title in 2017, before doubling up at Southern Hills 3 years ago.
After finishing runner-up at the Valspar Championship, Thomas looked a lively player at the Masters but his preparation was hampered by a late caddie switch after Matt Minister suffered a back injury. While he never recovered from a sluggish start at Augusta, where he finished 36th, Thomas returned to winning ways the following week with temporary looper Joe Greiner – now working with Collin Morikawa – on the bag, claiming the title at the RBC Heritage.
Minister returned at the Truist last week, helping his boss to 2nd place behind Sepp Straka. All areas of the game were firing in Philadelphia as Thomas shot 4 consistent rounds of 66-67-66-67 to ensure he will return to Quail Hollow full of confidence. Thomas is long enough off the tee to cope with the demands of the Charlotte venue, he is striking his irons with his trademark zest, and, perhaps most crucially, his putting has arguably been better than ever this year. He is particularly fond of the Bermuda greens he will encounter in North Carolina.
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2025 PGA Championship prediction: Xander Schauffele (+2200)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
While others have more recent wins to their names, defending US PGA champion Xander Schauffele has been playing himself steadily back into form and he also looks to have tantalizing value at a venue where he has excelled. After 2 months off with a rib injury, the Californian has worked his way close to his best, no doubt with the Majors in mind, finishing 12th at the Valspar, 8th at the Masters, 18th at the Heritage and 11th at the Truist. He missed the cut as a young gun in the 2017 US PGA at Quail Hollow but he finished runner-up in the 2023 and 2024 editions of the Wells Fargo Championship, showcasing his ability to cope with the course. Having claimed 2 Majors wins last year, he could make a mockery of his odds.
See our best PGA Championship prop bets for this week, featuring Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm
2025 PGA Championship pick: Tommy Fleetwood (+4500)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Ludvig Aberg looked well suited to Quail Hollow and Joaquin Niemann will surely get his act together in Majors soon, while this could also be the week for Tommy Fleetwood’s long-awaited breakthrough. The Englishman has form figures of 14-5-13 from his last course starts and his ultra-consistent form – 18 top-25 finishes from his last 19 starts – means that he should again figure on the PGA Championship leaderboard.
Fleetwood, who birded the 72nd hole on Sunday to share 4th place at the Truist – his best finish of the year – stuck around to congratulate his close friend McIlroy at the Masters last month. He will be desperate not only to emulate the Northern Irishman, but also to continue the success of his Ryder Cup colleagues Straka (twice), Aberg and Viktor Hovland, all of whom have won on the PGA Tour this year. He’s playing well enough to do so.
Find out our 2025 PGA Championship first round leader predictions, with picks at +7500 and +7000 odds
2025 PGA Championship longshot pick: Sam Burns (+12000)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Sam Burns, available at huge three-figure odds, could also play a hand in the finish. An elite putter, Burns thrives on Bermuda, with 4 of his 5 wins coming at courses predominantly featuring that grass type. He must improve on a modest Majors record, but he was 13th at the Heritage, 5th at the Byron Nelson, and eight-under through three rounds of the Truist before finishing tied-30th.
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