The NBA Cup semi-final is set for the Eastern Conference, now it’s time we found out who advances in the West. It’ll be the Phoenix Suns and OKC Thunder tipping things off on Wednesday at 7.30 pm ET on Prime Video. Only 4 points separated the two teams in the first meeting this season, can the Thunder deliver as a strong favorite here?
My Same Game Parlay is ready at +478 odds, it includes a Spread Pick plus two player prop bets. Be sure to check out our NBA Cup Picks for Wednesday’s slate, but now let’s dive into my bet!
Phoenix Suns +14.5 Point Spread (-114)
Chet Holmgren 2+ Made Threes (+102)
Dillon Brooks to Score 20+ Points (+122)
Same Game Parlay odds: +478
Phoenix Suns +14.5 Point Spread (-114)
As good as OKC is, this is a massive spread. As such, my Suns vs Thunder pick is for the visitors to cover. Phoenix is playing well. It compiled a 3-1 record in NBA Cup group play and it has won 2 of its last 3 games to compile a 14-10 overall record. The talent level may not be as great when Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal were on the roster, but the parts surrounding Devin Booker are working a lot better on the whole. Dillon Brooks is averaging 22.3 ppg and a total of 7 guys on the roster are scoring in double-figures.
There obviously isn’t anything bad to say about the Thunder, who are 23-1 and seemingly well on their way to the best record in NBA history. Although they are blowing out a lot of opponents, that’s not what happened when these 2 teams previously squared off on November 28. Oklahoma City — despite also having home-court advantage in that contest — won by just 4 points. I’m backing Phoenix with a boatload of points, although it would be wise to proceed with caution until Booker’s status is confirmed.
Read our Phoenix Suns vs Oklahoma City Thunder Predictions
Chet Holmgren 2+ Made Threes (+102)
Holmgren played a huge role in that win for Oklahoma City in the first meeting between the two teams by scoring 23 points on an incredible 8-for-13 from the field. He also added 2 threes to his name on 5 attempts, as a team the Thunder shot 47% from downtown in that game which makes me believe the Suns do struggle a bit guarding the perimeter. Opponents are converting on 35.9% of their attempts from deep against Phoenix, that ranks them only 13th in the NBA. I quite like Chet’s match-up with Mark Williams who isn’t as experienced at the center position. The last 3 meetings have seen Holmgren score 20+ in each game, with him shooting 60% twice during that stretch. He’s cleared this line in 3 of his last 6 games overall, while scoring at least one three in 5 of those. Let’s back him to do well on Wednesday.
Dillon Brooks to Score 20+ Points (+122)
Booker has been upgraded to questionable here, but even if he does play there could be some limitations to his movement as he tries to return from a groin injury. That said, I feel like Dillon Brooks will once again step up as the number one scoring option, he has been very comfortable in this role over the past 10 days or so. During this stretch the Suns played some formidable opponents in Denver, the Lakers, Houston and Minnesota, Brooks has scored over 20 points in 3 of those 4 games. For the season he’s averaging 22.1 per game, shooting a respectable 45% from the field. He narrowly missed out on clearing this line in the first meeting, finishing with 19 points, but it is worth noting that Booker also played in that game taking some of the shooting opportunities away from Brooks. The over has cashed in 4 of his last 5 games, while against the Thunder he’s averaging 18.5 points per game in the last 10 meetings.
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