Vedran Aracic
The NBA Finals are heading to Indiana with things locked up at 1-1. The Pacers took Game 1 courtesy of a last-second winner, and then, after some adjustments, OKC easily won Game 2. Are we about to see the Thunder storm through this series, or do the Pacers have what it takes to pick up another win and really turn this into a series? Let’s get into my best Thunder vs Pacers player prop bets for Game 3 of the 2025 NBA Finals, while you can also get our expert NBA picks for every game of the finals!
Read our full Thunder vs Pacers Game 3 prediction from our expert who is +44.4 units this season!
Best Pacers vs Thunder player prop bet: Myles Turner over 13.5 points (-125)
Odds available at Fanatics Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Myles Turner exceeded his season-average usage rate in all 4 games against OKC this season:
- Regular-season Game 1: 22.8% usage
- Regular-season Game 2: 26.9% usage
- NBA Finals Game 1: 26.5% usage
- NBA Finals Game 2: 27.9% usage
It seems OKC is comfortable letting Turner get his looks, as long as it helps them contain the rest of the offense. When we look at the data (graph below courtesy of PropsMadness), we can see that in games where he played between 26 and 36 minutes, with usage between 20% and 28%, and when we exclude shooting outliers (33–60% FG), Turner hit the over on the 13.5 points line in 21 out of 25 games, averaging a strong 18.2 points, including overs in both games of the Finals. Supporting this angle further, Turner scores 40% of his points from beyond the arc, which happens to be the one weak spot in OKC’s defense, as they allowed the 8th-most threes during the regular season and the 4th-most in the playoffs.
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Best Pacers vs Thunder player prop bet: Aaron Nesmith over 17.5 points+rebounds (-110)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Aaron Nesmith is another playoff raiser on the Pacers roster. He had a 16 points+rebounds average in the regular season and that has increased to a 19.6 average in the playoffs. He covered this line in both games against OKC as well, even though second one was a blowout and he lost some minutes.
Despite being a top defensive team, OKC is a decent matchup for Nesmith as they allow the 2nd-most rebounds to wings and also allow 2nd-most corner threes, where Nesmith scores 29% of his total points in the playoffs. When analyzing the data (PropsMadness graph below), in games where both Haliburton and Siakam played, and Nesmith logged between 24–36 minutes with a usage rate between 14% and 24% (he had 18.8% usage in both games vs OKC), he hit the over on 17.5 P+R in 17 out of 20 games. However, when we exclude the top 2 spot-up defense (OKC ranks bottom third of the league in spot-up defense), the hit rate improves to 15 out of 16 games, with an average of 21.6 points+rebounds. That’s well above the line and shows strong consistency under similar conditions.
Check out our expert’s Pacers vs Thunder Same Game Parlay picks for Wednesday’s HUGE Game 3 at +393 odds
