Vedran Aracic
The Indiana Pacers did it again, and now they have a series lead going into Game 4! The NBA Finals enter Game 4, as the underdogs pulled off another 4Q comeback to take down OKC in Game 3. The Thunder have their backs against the wall, which is why we’ve provided a variety of NBA picks for Game 3 tonight.
Here is a breakdown of my two favorite NBA Finals player props.
Read our full Thunder vs Pacers Game 4 best bet from our expert, who is +42.4 units this season!
Jalen Williams Under 1.5 Threes (-112)
Odds available at Fanatics Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Looking at the last game, Jalen Williams had only two attempts from three. One of those attempts came with 2 seconds left in the 3rd quarter on a step-back isolation three, and the other one was a desperate half-court shot with 2 seconds left in the game.
He recorded 1 or fewer threes in four straight games against the Pacers, and over those four games, he attempted only 3.3 threes on average, which is significantly lower compared to his season average. When he attempts between 2 and 5 threes, he is under this line in 38 out of the 55 games this season, which is close to 70%.
This all makes sense if we examine how the Pacers defend. They allow the 6th least above the break threes (where most of Williams’ threes come from), and they are above average transition and spot-up defense (all can be seen on the PropsMadness graphic below)
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Andrew Nembhard Under 4.5 Assists (-114)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Nembhard’s touches and potential assists are coming down as the Pacers have increasingly shifted their offensive focus toward Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam. Both players saw noticeable increases in usage and playmaking opportunities in Games 2 and 3 compared to Game 1.
Nembhard had 12 potential assists in Game 1, 5 in Game 2 and just 3 in Game 3 (PropsMadness graphic below). If we look at the entire season when he had between 5 and 9 potential assists (much higher range compared to the last two games) while playing teams who aren’t bottom 10 defenses in his favorite assist zone (at the rim), he was under this line in 22 out of the 30 games this season with a 3.8 assists average.
Check out our expert’s Pacers vs Thunder First Basket Scorer picks for Friday’s Game 4 contest in Indiana at +550 odds
