Ricky Dimon
Week 7 of the 2025 NFL season will begin with a showdown in the AFC North between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals. Pittsburgh finds itself atop the division at 4-1 and has won 3 in a row, while Cincinnati comes in at 2-4 and has lost 4 straight.
Here is my Same Game Parlay for the festivities, which get underway at 8:15 pm ET on Amazon Prime. Also be sure to check out our full Steelers vs Bengals predictions.
Steelers -5.5 (-112)
Under 42.5 (-105)
Jaylen Warren Over 52.5 rushing yards (-112)
Parlay odds: +500
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Pittsburgh running back Jaylen Warren racking up his fair share of rushing yards would obviously work well with a Steelers win and cover. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with also backing the under. But even if Warren has a decent game, there is no reason why the under can’t cash. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
Steelers -5.5 (-112)
This is a great spot for Pittsburgh. Not only does head coach Mike Tomlin’s team have a ton of momentum, but they have also played just 1 game since September 28 (they enjoyed a bye in Week 5). This past Sunday’s outing was a walk in the park against the Browns, as the Steelers cruised 23-9 at the expense of one of the worst teams in football. Aaron Rodgers and company are healthy, well rested and loving life atop a division in which every other team has – in several cases surprisingly – been a complete disaster this season. That includes Cincinnati. It has all gone wrong for head coach Zac Taylor’s outfit since Joe Burrow suffered a foot injury that will sideline him for at least 3 months (and might as well be the whole year since there won’t be any point in bringing him back). Jake Browning was so bad as Burrow’s replacement that the Bengals traded for 40-year-old Joe Flacco. Although Cincinnati was relatively competitive in a 27-18 loss at Green Bay, Flacco averaged just 4.9 yards per pass attempt and the Bengals rushed for a mere 55 yards.
Under 42.5 (-105)
Things don’t figure to improve on the offensive side of the ball against T.J. Watt and a Steelers defensive unit that is tied for second in the league with 20 sacks. In 5 games this year (4 with the Browns), Flacco has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns (6 to 4) and is completing just 59.4 percent of his passes. The Bengals’ ground game has also been anemic. Chase Brown is averaging a hopeless 2.7 yards per carry, amassing only 202 yards on 74 attempts while scoring just 1 TD. As for Pittsburgh’s offense, Rodgers has been solid so far this season – but at 41 years old his very best days are far, far behind him. This total is simply too high for a game involving 2 quarterbacks who are a combined 81 years old.
Jaylen Warren Over 52.5 rushing yards (-112)
It is true that Warren has underwhelmed so far in 2025, but he missed Week 4 with a minor knee issue and then his whole team was off in Week 5. A bunch of rest seemed to do him some good, as Warren came back and rushed for 52 yards on only 11 attempts (4.7 average) against Cleveland last weekend. The Oklahoma State product figures to see a larger volume on Thursday, as the likely game script calls for the visitors to seize a quick lead and then work the clock the rest of the way. That’s not to say that Rodgers won’t sling the ball around a bit, but the Steelers are a run-first squad – and that should certainly remain the case in this particular matchup. Cincinnati ranks #28 league wide against the run, allowing 135.7 yards per game.
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