Luke Lindholm
Wednesday marks the second FIFA Club World Cup semifinal, as Paris Saint-Germain takes on Real Madrid. These 2 squads have the shortest odds to win it all, and whoever wins Wednesday’s game will be the big favorite in the final against Chelsea on Sunday. PSG and Real Madrid have combined for an 8-1-1 record at this tournament, so we should be in for a good one at MetLife Stadium at 3:00 pm ET today. I discussed this in my Fluminense vs Chelsea preview, but I’m carrying a 29-11 record with my FIFA CWC predictions, so make sure you review who I’m backing today. Here are my three PSG vs Real Madrid Same Game Parlay picks for Wednesday’s semifinal clash between two European giants, which has +364 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
PSG to Qualify (-130)
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia to Have 3 or More Shots (-175)
Gonzalo Garcia to Have 1 or More Shots on Target (-180)
PSG vs Real Madrid Same Game Parlay odds: +364
PSG vs Real Madrid best bet: PSG to Qualify (-130)
To kick off my PSG vs Real Madrid prediction, I’m backing the Parisians to advance to the next round (and go on to win the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup). They knocked out Bayern Munich with a 2-0 win in the quarterfinals, and even though that game came down to the final 10 minutes, they had the majority of the chances. The only extra obstacle they will face is that CB Willian Pacho will miss the game due to a red card he picked up against Bayern, but I expect Lucas Beraldo to step in without too many issues. PSG has pitched 2 straight shutouts in the knockout stage, so scoring will be extremely difficult for Real Madrid.
Los Blancos did well to eliminate Borussia Dortmund 3-2 in the quarterfinals, but they’ll also be without a CB in this game. Newly acquired CB Dean Huijsen was shown red in extra time of that game, so Raul Asencio will step in. Although the Spanish side has gone unbeaten at this tournament, they’ve shown weaknesses against Al-Hilal, Juventus and Dortmund. Additionally, they struggled against strong opposition towards the end of last season. They were eliminated on 5-1 aggregate against Arsenal in the Champions League and lost to Barcelona in the Copa Del Ray Final 3-2 and in the league 4-1 on May 11.
PSG will easily be their toughest opponent under Xabi Alonso, and I’d be surprised if they can pull off the upset. The Ligue 1 side has won 9 of their last 10 games, with their only defeat coming against Botafogo, as they rested a few key players. They won’t be resting any key players in this one, and I expect them to take down Real Madrid in a competitive affair.
Check out our full PSG vs Real Madrid prediction
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PSG vs Real Madrid player props: Khvicha Kvaratskhelia to Have 3 or More Shots (-175)
For the second leg in my PSG vs Real Madrid Same Game Parlay, I’m going back to the well with Khvicha Kvaratskhelia’s shots prop. The analysis is similar after I cashed my pick on Kvaratskhelia against Bayern. The Georgian has 3 or more shots in 4 of PSG’s 5 FIFA Club World Cup matches and has cashed this line in 13 of his last 16 starts. Ousmane Dembélé could be back in the starting lineup, and his presence would free the game up even more for Kvaratskhelia.
Real Madrid will be without a CB in this game, and they’re coming off a game where they allowed 2 goals to a Borussia Dortmund side that isn’t on the same level as PSG. Additionally, RB Trent Alexander-Arnold already faced PSG this past UCL season when he was playing at Liverpool, and in those two legs, Kvaratskhelia recorded 5 shots in both legs. He’ll attack TAA from the beginning, and I can’t picture him recording fewer than 3 shots in this semifinal.
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PSG vs Real Madrid predictions: Gonzalo Garcia to Have 1 or More Shots on Target (-180)
It’s hard to ignore Gonzalo Garcia in this one, as the 21-year-old Spanish striker is the odds-on favorite for the Golden Boot. He has 4 goals to his name and has filled in well in the absence of Kylian Mbappé. I don’t expect Mbappé to start in this game, and Alonso has no reason to turn away from Garcia, given his current form. PSG will be without Pacho in the back, so I expect them to give up a few more chances than normal, which should fall to the Spanish attacker.
In addition to his goal-scoring form at this tournament, Garcia has consistently tested the opposing keeper. He’s recorded 1 or more shots on target in 4 of Madrid’s 5 games at this tournament and even tested Al Hilal with 4 shots on target in their opening game. I could see him adding to his goal tally tomorrow, but I feel better about backing him to record at least 1 shot on PSG GK Gianluigi Donnarumma.
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