The final game of the 2025 NFL regular season will decide the AFC North, as the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers battle for the division title on Sunday Night Football. Pittsburgh had a chance to clinch last weekend at Cleveland but suffered a horrendous loss. Baltimore kept its hopes alive by beating Green Bay on the road.
I have been cashing Same Game Parlays left and right throughout the 2025 season, including 2 of my 4 efforts during Week 16 (+650 in Packers vs Bears and +600 in 49ers vs Colts). I also hit a +675 play for Texans vs Chargers last weekend. Let’s keep the momentum rolling with my SGP for this 8:20 pm ET kickoff on NBC. Also be sure to check out our full Ravens vs Steelers predictions.
Steelers ML (+176)
Derrick Henry Over 87.5 rushing yards (-114)
Derrick Henry to score a touchdown (-130)
Parlay odds: +1129
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the entire plan here, as Baltimore running back Derrick Henry having a big night obviously goes against a Pittsburgh win. Still, there is no reason why the home team can’t prevail even if Henry puts up some decent numbers. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
Steelers ML (+176)
There is no denying that the Steelers’ 13-6 loss to the Browns was bad, but it isn’t a reason to jump entirely off the deep end. December games in Cleveland can get wild – and rivalry matchups in the AFC North always seem to produce relatively bizarre results or at least scorelines that are more competitive than expected. Pittsburgh’s defense played well, limiting Cleveland to only 262 yards of total offense and 11 first downs. That was without TJ Watt, too, but the star edge rusher will finally be back from a partially collapsed lung to participate in the biggest game of the year.
DK Metcalf’s suspension does not help, but the visitors should be able to win this one mainly with defense. Although Lamar Jackson is back for the Ravens, he has been banged up all season long and has just not been himself. In an intense battle that will probably be close the entire way, the value is on the underdogs.
Derrick Henry Over 87.5 rushing yards (-114)
In the biggest games, teams put the ball – or at least they should – in their best players’ hands. Jackson, of course, is also one of the Ravens’ best players. As already mentioned, though, this is not the normal Jackson. He is not his real self right now and he also has a troubling history of coming up short on the biggest stages. You have to think this is a situation in which Baltimore will be content to pound the rock with Henry early and often.
The former Alabama standout has been going off in recent weeks. In fact, he pinned 128 yards and 2 touchdowns on a stout New England defense on December 21 and followed that up with a 216-yard, 4-touchdown performance at Green Bay. Henry now faces a solid but unspectacular Pittsburgh defense that is allowing 111.2 rushing yards per game on 4.2 yards per attempt.
Derrick Henry to score a touchdown (-130)
I’m not overly concerned with throwing this into a parlay that also includes Pittsburgh winning. After all, we can basically treat Henry finding the endzone as a given. As long as the Steelers contain everyone else, they should be in good shape even if Henry has a big night. The 31-year-old has scored 16 TDs throughout the 2025 campaign, including a ridiculous 6 in the past 2 contests.
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