Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Detroit Lions Same Game Parlay: NFL Parlay Picks for Monday Night Football, Week 7 

Week 7 of the 2025 NFL season wraps up with a Monday Night Football double-header. Before the Houston Texans visit the Seattle Seahawks, the Detroit Lions host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Tampa Bay is 5-1 and Detroit is 4-2, so this is without question a possible NFC Championship preview.

Here is my Same Game Parlay for the festivities, which get underway at 7:00 pm ET on ABC. Also be sure to check out our full Buccaneers vs Lions predictions.

Lions -5.5 (-120) 

Amon-Ra St. Brown to record 100+ receiving yards (+210)

Baker Mayfield Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-166) 

Parlay odds: +841

Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Detroit wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown having a huge day would obviously work well with a win and cover by the Lions. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with backing Tampa Bay quarterback Baker Mayfield to throw for multiple touchdowns. But even if he does, there is no reason why the home team can’t take care of business. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.

Lions -5.5 (-120) 

There is no denying that the Bucs have been impressive so far this season, but a lot of that has to do with Mayfield playing Superman and single-handedly bailing his team out of close game after close game. Although there is nothing fluky about it, it’s not a recipe for sustained success – especially not when the competition gets tougher in the form of Detroit. Tampa Bay already lost to one of the other most difficult opponents on its schedule, falling to Philadelphia 31-25 at home in Week 4. A second setback could be incoming, as the Bucs are extremely depleted. RB Bucky Irving is out along with WR Chris Godwin, while receivers Mike Evans and Emeka Egbuka are questionable. Offensive linemen Cody Mauch and Luke Goedeke are on injured reserve; right guard Luke Haggard is out. On the other side of the ball, DT Calijah Kancey is sidelined for the regular season and LB Lavonte David is questionable. The Lions are eager to bounce back from a loss at Kansas City and they should be able to do it at home, where they have scored 52 and 34 points in 2 games this season.

Amon-Ra St. Brown to record 100+ receiving yards (+210)

It really isn’t asking too much for St. Brown to reach the century mark. The USC product has already done it twice this year, and dating back to last season he has hit this number in 3 of the last 6 games. When you play in such of an explosive offense like that of Detroit, you always have a chance to go crazy. A matchup with Tampa Bay presents another opportunity for a huge statistical output. The Bucs boast a solid run defense, but they are generous against the pass. Head coach Todd Bowles’ team is #21 in pass defense (231.2 yards per game) and #26 in yards per pass attempt allowed (7.6). St. Brown has absolutely owned the Bucs, too. He was targeted 18 times during a 2024 regular-season meeting, which led to 11 receptions for 119 yards. In a pair of 2023 meetings (1 playoff game), ARSB made a combined 20 catches on 29 targets 201 yards and 2 TDs.

Baker Mayfield Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-166)

Mayfield has exceeded this number in 5 of the last 6 games and in 3 straight. This season-opening not steak, which has the former #1 overall pick firmly in the MVP conversation, also includes 3-touchdown performance against Atlanta. Dating back to last season, Mayfield has tossed at least 2 scoring strikes in 11 of the last 12 contests. There is no reason to think that he will suddenly hit a snag against the Lions, who have surrendered 13 touchdowns through the air. Heading into Week 7, only 4 teams had allowed more. It’s also worth noting that Detroit is just as bad as Tampa Bay against the pass, giving up the exact same 7.5 yards per attempt. With Irving out, you can expect Mayfield to really exploit the Lions through the air by targeting Evans and Egbuka – assuming they play – early and often.