Ricky Dimon
Why have only 1 Monday Night Football game when you can have 2? Answer: there is no reason! As such, NFL schedule makers have graced us with a pair of Monday showdowns this week. Before the Las Vegas Raiders entertain the Los Angeles Chargers, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will pay a visit to the Houston Texans. Tampa Bay comes in with a 1-0 record, while Houston could really use a win after dropping its season opener against the Los Angeles Rams.
Here is my Same Game Parlay for the festivities, which get underway at 7:00 pm ET on ESPN. Also be sure to check out our full Buccaneers vs Texans predictions.
Texans -2.5 (-115)
Nico Collins to score a touchdown (+140)
Baker Mayfield to record 250+ passing yards (+124)
Parlay odds: +648
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Houston receiver Nico Collins scoring a touchdown would obviously work well with a win and cover by the Texans. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with backing Tampa Bay quarterback Baker Mayfield to throw for his fair share of yards. But even if he does, there is no reason why the the home team can’t take care of business. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
Texans -2.5 (-115)
Houston may have lost in Week 1, but its defense was outstanding. It limited the Rams to 84 rushing yards and constantly had Matthew Stafford under pressure. We know what C.J. Stroud and the Texans’ offense are capable of producing when things are clicking, so it’s only a matter of time before this team is a well-oiled machine on both sides of the ball. That’s to say the Texas will put it entirely all together in Week 2, but offensive improvement can be expected. Tampa Bay’s defense struggled against the pass last Sunday, watching Atlanta quarterback Michael Penix Jr. throw for 298 yards. The Buccaneers recorded just 1 sack and 3 QB hits. On the other side of the ball, the visitors are still without offensive tackle Tristan Wirfs and receiver Chris Godwin. Wirfs is arguably the best at his position in the entire NFL and Godwin – even though Emeka Egbuka looks like an extremely promising rookie – is a very reliable weapon for Baker Mayfield in the passing game. Let’s go with the Texans and give the 2.5 points.
Nico Collins to score a touchdown (+140)
There is good value on Collins to find the endzone well into plus money. The former Michigan standout scored 7 touchdowns in 12 regular-season games last year and then made 12 catches on 16 targets for 203 yards and 1 TD in a pair of playoff appearances. That sample size of success is obviously much larger than Collins’ relatively quiet performance last weekend. There is no reason to fret over a stout Rams defense keeping him under wraps. The Buccaneers, who were #29 in pass defense in 2024 and surrendered 27 touchdowns through the air, are unlikely to do the same.
Baker Mayfield to record 250+ passing yards (+124)
This actually doesn’t conflict much with backing the Texans to win and cover, because Mayfield will have to air it out if his team is playing from behind. Let’s hope Houston jumps out to a quick lead and forces Mayfield to hit the airwaves. If that happens, the Oklahoma product should be able to victimize the opposing secondary. Houston held the Rams to 14 points last weekend, but it gave up 224 passing yards on 8.4 yards per attempt. Mayfield did not do much in the way of yardage during Tapa Bay’s Week 1 win over Atlanta, but he at least tossed 3 touchdowns without getting picked off. He is playing with confidence, which should lead to another productive performance on Monday night.
