Sunday Night Football in Week 12 of the NFL season is a showdown in the NFC between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Los Angeles Rams. Both teams have very real playoff hopes – division-title aspirations, in fact. Tampa Bay comes in with a 6-4 record, good for first place in the NFC South; Los Angeles is atop the NFC West at 8-2.
Here is my Same Game Parlay for the festivities, which get underway at 8:20 pm ET on NBC. Also be sure to check out our full Buccaneers vs Rams predictions.
Rams -2.5 alternate spread (-242)
Matthew Stafford Over 256.5 passing yards (-113)
Emeka Egbuka to score a touchdown (+175)
Parlay odds: +575
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Los Angeles quarterback Matthew Stafford racking up his fair share of passing yards would obviously work well with a Rams win and cover. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with backing Tampa Bay wide receiver Emeka Egbuka to score a touchdown. But even he does, there is no reason why the home team can’t take care of business. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
Rams -2.5 alternate spread (-242)
The Rams are coming off an absolute massive 21-19 win over the Seahawks to seize control of the NFC West. That exended their winning streak to 5 games. Their defense was especially impressive, racking up 4 interceptions of Sam Darnold – who had previously been one of the NFL’s most efficient quarterbacks. Head coach Sean McVay’s squad is now second in scoring defense (17.2 ppg allowed), tied for second in turnovers forced (18) and ninth in sacks (27). The Bucs are going in the other direction. Once 5-1, they have lost 3 of their last 4 games. Half of their wins have come at the expense of the Falcons, Saints and Jets. They have lost to the Eagles, Lions, Patriots and Bills. When the competition gets tough (as it does again on Sunday night), things go south in Tampa Bay. Missing guys like DT Calijah Kancey, WR Mike Evans and RB Bucky Iriving does not help.
Matthew Stafford Over 256.5 passing yards (-113)
Tampa Bay is better against the run than it is against the pass. Its run defense in #10 league wide at 100.4 yards per game allowed. The Bucs are #17 in defensive EPA per pass and they surrender the sixth-most yards per attempt (7.7). Stafford has one of the best receiver duos in the NFL at his disposal in Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, which is a big reason why he continues to put up MVP-caliber numbers at 37 years old. The former Georgia standout boasts an absurd 27-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio this season to go along with 2,557 yards and a completion percentage of 66.0. He has exceeded this 256.5 quota twice in the last 3 outings and had twice passed for at least 375 yards.
Emeka Egbuka to score a touchdown (+175)
With Evans and Irving still sidelined, Egbuka is by far Mayfield’s most prolific weapon. The rookie out of Ohio State has scored 6 touchdowns this season, including 1 that came 2 weeks ago against a stout New England defense – which he torched for 6 receptions on 13 targets for 115 yards. Egbuka now faces a Los Angeles defense that has given up 3 times as many TDs through the air (12) as on the ground (4). The Rams are #6 in the NFL in yards per rushing attempt allowed (3.9) but find themselves in the bottom half of the league in passing defense, so they can be attacked via the airwaves.
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