A spot in the AFC Championship will be at stake when the Houston Texans and New England Patriots collide on Sunday afternoon in New England. The Texans went into Pittsburgh on Monday night and clobbered the Steelers 30-6, while the Patriots kicked off their playoff campaign with a 16-3 victory over the Chargers.
I have been cashing Same Game Parlays left and right throughout the season, so let’s keep the momentum rolling with my SGP for this 3:00 pm ET kickoff on ESPN. Also be sure to check out our full Texans vs Patriots predictions.
Texans ML (+150)
Under 40.5 (-105)
Woody Marks to record 70+ rushing yards (+184)
Parlay odds: +850
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Houston running back Woody Marks racking up a decent chunk of yardage would obviously work well with a Texans victory. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with also backing the under. But even if Marks fares well, there is no reason why the under can’t cash. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
Texans ML (+150)
All aboard the Texans’ bandwagon! I have been on it for much of the season and everyone should be on it now following their first-round performance. Granted, the Patriots are not the Steelers. But we’re not asking the visitors to win by 24 points; we’re simply asking them to win. They should be able to do it, too. Since starting the season 3-5, head coach Demeco Ryans’ squad has reeled off 10 victories in a row. The defense is flat-out scary. CJ Stroud can’t possibly play as bad as he did on Monday – and his team still won by 24 points. If Stroud can simply play mistake-free football and let his defense cook, Houston should be in good shape. Even with Drake Maye performing at an MVP level, New England’s offense is not a unit over which Houston’s defense will lose any sleep. In a contest that should be low scoring with extremely small margins, the Texans have good value as considerable underdogs.
Under 40.5 (-105)
As expected, both defenses were utterly dominant in the first round – giving up a combined 9 points while each forcing 2 turnovers. New England came up with 6 sacks of Justin Herbert, while Houston took down Aaron Rodgers 4 times. It was nothing new, either – especially for the Texans. They ranked #1 in total defense, #2 in scoring, #6 against the pass, #3 in interceptions and #6 in sacks during the regular season. On the other side of the ball, don’t be fooled by Houston’s 30 points at Pittsburgh. Other than Marks, the offense was pretty much awful almost the entire game. Two of the Texans’ touchdowns were scored by the defense. Additionally, receiver Nico Collins left with a concussion and probably won’t play this weekend. I have full faith in defense controlling this matchup the entire way, to the extent that neither team is likely to reach the 20-point mark.
Woody Marks to record 70+ rushing yards (+184)
Dating back to the regular season, Marks has rushed for at least 64 yards in 5 of his last 7 games. The two exceptions are easily explained, too. One was such a blowout of Arizona (40-20) that Marks got just 7 carries; the other was the regular-season finale against Indianapolis that turned into a meaningless game once it became apparent that Jacksonville was going to crush Tennessee and clinch the AFC South. In other words, Marks is always productive whenever his volume of work is up to standard. The USC product was awesome on Monday, carrying 19 times for 112 yards and a touchdown. Houston’s game plan for round 2 should be the norm: dominate on defense and run the football. Although New England’s defense is very good, it allowed 101.7 yards per game on 4.2 yards per attempt in the regular season. That’s decent but nothing special.
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