Texans vs Patriots Picks, Props & Parlay for NFL Divisional Round Sunday

Houston Texans wide receiver Christian Kirk (13) celebrates with wide receiver Xavier Hutchinson (19) after scoring a touchdown against the Buffalo Bills in the second quarter at NRG Stadium.

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Texans vs Patriots predictions & NFL Divisional Round picks

Kevin Rogers’ Texans vs Patriots spread prediction: Texans +3 (+100)

Houston heads to the northeast for a second straight week after knocking out Pittsburgh in Monday’s Wild Card round, 30-6. The Texans cashed as 2.5-point favorites after opening things up in the fourth quarter, outscoring the Steelers, 23-0 to break away from a 7-6 advantage. Now, the Texans are flipped to a short underdog against the AFC East champion Patriots, who also pulled away late from the Chargers in a 16-3 triumph. New England led Los Angeles, 6-3 at the half until QB Drake Maye hooked up with former Charger Hunter Henry for the game’s lone TD in the fourth quarter to send L.A. to 0-3 in the playoffs with Justin Herbert at QB.

We’ll see if New England’s offense can score on Houston’s defense, which led the NFL in yards allowed per game (277.2) and gave up 183.5 passing yards per contest. The Patriots posted a solid 12-5 ATS mark in the regular season, followed up by the cover as 3.5-point favorites over the Chargers. Houston picked up its 10th straight win against Pittsburgh since losing to eventual AFC top-seed Denver at home in Week 9. The Texans have won and covered in the past 4 opportunities in the underdog role, including victories over the Chargers, Bills, and Chiefs.

Houston routed New England last season 41-21 at Gillette Stadium, as Maye threw for 243 yards, 3 TDs, and 2 INTs. Texans QB C.J. Stroud looks to overcome his 5 fumbles against the Steelers, as he posted at least 240 passing yards in 3 of 4 road games since returning from his concussion in November. The Patriots have won 11 consecutive games as a favorite since getting stunned in the season opener by the Raiders. Houston’s defense has been exceptional this season and as long as Stroud can hold onto the ball, the Texans are a strong look here as an underdog.

Kevin Rogers’ Texans vs Patriots total pick: Under 41 (-110)

Both Houston and New England easily finished under the total in their Wild Card victories. Neither team yielded a TD, as the Texans gave up a pair of field goals to the Steelers, while the Patriots allowed one FG in their win over the Chargers. Houston moved to 12-6 to the under this season, including a 7-2 under mark on the road. The Patriots hit the over in 11 of 17 regular season games before the under on Sunday against the Chargers. New England closed the regular season on a 6-1 Over run at Gillette Stadium, while scoring their fewest points since a 21-14 home loss to Pittsburgh in Week 3.

The defensive numbers are staggering for Houston, especially on the road. The Texans allowed 17 or fewer points in 8 of 9 games away from NRG Stadium, including a 7-2 under mark. The Patriots were 4-0 to the over on totals of 42.5, but three of those came against the Browns, Jets, and Titans. New England ranked 3rd in the league in total offense at 379.4 yards per game and averaged 28.8 points per game, sitting 2nd overall. The chief criticism of New England’s great offensive numbers is the weak competition they faced, averaging 30.9 ppg against the last 10 teams they took on who did not qualify for the postseason.

We’ll trust the best defense in the NFL to cash another under and slow down the Patriots, while not having a lot of trust in Houston to light up the scoreboard. In 7 of 9 road games, the Texans scored 20 or fewer points, with their 2nd-highest output coming at Pittsburgh which can be attributed to a huge fourth quarter. Let’s look at the under in this AFC divisional showdown in New England.

Read NFL expert Kevin Rogers’ full analysis for his Texans vs Patriots predictions, where he has a 37-19 record on his spread picks this season!

Texans vs Patriots player prop bets

ThatGuyBets’ best Texans vs Patriots player prop bet: Kyle Williams (NE) over 4.5 receiving yards (-114)

I might be the only sicko on this bet. With that being said, I dig this one. Kyle Williams will not be on the field every snap on Sunday, but that’s okay with a line like this. Williams played 33% of snaps last week in his playoff debut. The first worry was that maybe he came in late when the game was already decided, which inflated this number. That’s not the case, as Williams had already run 10 routes by halftime.

We realistically need 1 catch here, as Williams is known as a deep play threat. This bet has ladder potential written all over it if we see him streak down the sideline for a big grab. Houston has an awesome secondary but I expect them to be worried about containing Stefon Diggs and Hunter Henry, while also accounting for Drake Maye’s scrambling. Give me one play where Williams can just get 5 easy yards!

Don’t miss ThatGuyBets’ best Texans vs Patriots player prop bets, targeting Kyle Williams

Texans vs Patriots TD scorer best bet: Kyle Williams (NE) anytime touchdown scorer (+850)

Kyle Williams and his 4.4 40-time will be on full display on Sunday. Williams ran the 5th-most routes amongst Patriots wide receivers during the regular season, but it’s the team-leading 19.05 ADOT that makes him so potent. The Texans locked all windows and doors on Monday Night Football, but the week prior, Colts rookie QB Riley Leonard completed 4 passes of at least 30 yards. The Texans’ defense is as stout as the league has, but 1 deep shot is all we need.

Texans vs Patriots TD scorer prediction: Dalton Schultz anytime touchdown scorer (+235)

There is no question the Texans will have a difficult time replacing Nico Collins and his 24.6% target share. Collins had a marvelous 2nd half of the season, including 4 games of 90+ yards. Christian Kirk and rookie Jayden Higgins will look to fill voids, but it’s veteran Dalton Schultz who will likely be the main culprit of the Texans offense if Woody Marks struggles on the ground. Schultz ranked in the top 15 in targets inside the 10-yard line while scoring 3 touchdowns.

Now check out the rest of JutPicks’ Texans vs Patriots touchdown scorer best bets

Houston Texans vs New England Patriots parlay

After cashing our Bills vs Jags SGP at +900 last week, make sure you check out our Texans vs Patriots parlay picks at +850 odds for today’s matchup

Texans vs Patriots parlay pick: Texans ML over Patriots (-102)

All aboard the Texans’ bandwagon! I have been on it for much of the season, and everyone should be on it now following their first-round performance. Granted, the Patriots are not the Steelers. But we’re not asking the visitors to win by 24 points; we’re simply asking them to win. They should be able to do it, too. Since starting the season 3-5, head coach Demeco Ryans’ squad has reeled off 10 victories in a row. The defense is flat-out scary. CJ Stroud can’t possibly play as badly as he did on Monday – and his team still won by 24 points. If Stroud can simply play mistake-free football and let his defense cook, Houston should be in good shape.

Even with Drake Maye performing at an MVP level, New England’s offense is not a unit over which Houston’s defense will lose any sleep. In a contest that should be low scoring with extremely small margins, the Texans have good value as considerable underdogs.

Texans vs Patriots parlay pick: Under 40.5 (-105)

As expected, both defenses were utterly dominant in the first round – giving up a combined 9 points while each forcing 2 turnovers. New England came up with 6 sacks of Justin Herbert, while Houston took down Aaron Rodgers 4 times. It was nothing new, either – especially for the Texans. They ranked 1st in total defense, 2nd in scoring, 6th against the pass, 3rd in interceptions and 6th in sacks during the regular season.

On the other side of the ball, don’t be fooled by Houston’s 30 points at Pittsburgh. Other than Marks, the offense was pretty much awful almost the entire game. 2 of the Texans’ touchdowns were scored by the defense. Additionally, receiver Nico Collins left with a concussion and probably won’t play this weekend. I have full faith in defense controlling this matchup the entire way, to the extent that neither team is likely to reach the 20-point mark.

Texans vs Patriots parlay pick: Woody Marks to record 70+ rushing yards (+184)

Dating back to the regular season, Marks has rushed for at least 64 yards in 5 of his last 7 games. The 2 exceptions are easily explained, too. One was such a blowout of Arizona (40-20) that Marks got just 7 carries; the other was the regular-season finale against Indianapolis that turned into a meaningless game once it became apparent that Jacksonville was going to crush Tennessee and clinch the AFC South. In other words, Marks is always productive whenever his volume of work is up to standard. The USC product was awesome on Monday, carrying 19 times for 112 yards and a touchdown.

Houston’s game plan for round 2 should be the norm: dominate on defense and run the football. Although New England’s defense is very good, it allowed 101.7 yards per game on 4.2 yards per attempt in the regular season. That’s decent but nothing special.