The NFL playoffs continue on Monday night with a showdown between the Houston Texans and Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC wild-card round. Four of the 6 road teams this weekend are or were favored, and that includes Houston. And why not? The Texans have won 9 games in a row, while the Steelers played unspectacular football down the stretch but managed to win what was an atrocious AFC North Division.
I have been cashing Same Game Parlays left and right throughout the season, including 2 of my 4 efforts during Week 16 (+650 in Packers vs Bears and +600 in 49ers vs Colts). I also hit a +675 play for Texans vs Chargers in Week 17. Let’s keep the momentum rolling with my SGP for this 8:00 pm ET kickoff on ESPN. Also be sure to check out our full Texans vs Steelers predictions.
Texans -3 (-102)
Woody Marks Over 56.5 rushing yards (-115)
Dalton Schultz to score a touchdown (+245)
Parlay odds: +700
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is the entire plan here, as Houston running back Woody Marks rushing for his fair share of yards and tight end Dalton Schultz scoring a touchdown would both obviously work well with the Texans winning and covering. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
Texans -3 (-102)
The Texans are simply a great team that probably should have won the AFC South and would have if not for a dreadful 3-5 start. Their defense is incredible. It is a unit that ranked #1 in the NFL overall, #2 in scoring, #6 against the pass, #3 in interceptions and #6 in sacks. Facing a 42-year-old quarterback – even one as accomplished as Aaron Rodgers – is a recipe for total domination. Houston is nothing special on the other side of the ball, but CJ Stroud is a capable quarterback who has lots of big-game experience – including in the NFL playoffs (advanced 1 round in each of his first 2 seasons). The Steelers do deserve at least some credit for winning their division, but the Ravens, Bengals and Browns were all total disasters. Pittsburgh’s defense will have to play light years better than it did in Week 18 against Baltimore, because you know the home team isn’t going to score much against this defense.
Woody Marks Over 56.5 rushing yards (-115)
Marks rushed for 64 yards or more in 4 of his last 6 regular-season contests. One exception was a defeat of the Cardinals that was such a blowout (40-20) right from the start that Marks got just 7 carries; the other was the regular-season finale against the Colts that turned into a meaningless game once it became apparent that the Jaguars were going to crush the Titans and clinch the AFC South. In other words, Marks almost always delivers whenever his volume of work is at a standard level. I expect the USC product to get plenty of carries on Monday, as my projected game script has Houston in the lead from start to finish – thus being able to keep the ball on the ground. Marks is going up against a Steelers defense that has given up 113.1 yards per game on 4.3 yards per attempt.
Dalton Schultz to score a touchdown (+245)
Schultz has scored only 3 touchdowns this season, but all 3 have come since the start of November and 2 have come in the last 4 games. The veteran tight end is on a heater heading into the playoffs, which is generally the time of year when he thrives. In 2 postseason outings with Dallas during the 2022 campaign, Shultz hauled in 3 TD passes to go along with 122 yards on 12 receptions. In the 2023 playoffs with Houston, the Stanford product scored a touchdown during wild-card action against Cleveland. Shultz now faces a Pittsburgh defense that has given up the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends – including 11 touchdowns.
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