Filip Tomic
After they lost the opening 2 games by a combined 41 points, the Minnesota Timberwolves look to stay alive in their series against the OKC Thunder. Tipoff for Game 3 is at 8:30 pm ET on ESPN, and I have prepared a +405 odds Same Game Parlay to add to the excitement.
Get predictions on the side and total for all NBA Conference Finals and Finals games on our NBA Picks page, but now let’s get into my Timberwolves vs Thunder Game 3 bet!
Timberwolves +2.5 (-110)
Anthony Edwards to score 25+ points (-215)
Chet Holmgren 2+ made threes (+118)
Same Game Parlay odds: +405
Timberwolves +2.5 (-110)
The first two games of this series have gone the way of the Thunder, with both victories coming in convincing fashion thanks to a pair of massive third quarters from Oklahoma City that turned those games into blowouts. However, with the series shifting to Minnesota, historical data suggests that the Timberwolves should be able to bounce back and make this a series at home. After complaining about the officiating around newly-minted MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander following Game 1, the Timberwolves got out of their game on the defensive side of the ball in Game 2, which is exactly what Oklahoma City wants. These 2 games in Oklahoma City were likely Chris Finch’s worst playoff losses of his Minnesota playoff career, with things feeling eerily similar to how the Western Conference Finals went last year against the Mavericks.
With that said, things should turn for Minnesota in this game, especially from a shot variance perspective. After all, the Timberwolves role players should shoot at a considerably better clip from beyond the arc at home, while Oklahoma City will likely get fewer free-throw attempts away from its building. Furthermore, what has really killed Minnesota is how badly the Wolves have gotten crushed from a turnover disparity perspective, particularly in those disastrous third quarters. Therefore, if Anthony Edwards and company are able to minimize those live-ball mistakes, that should take away a number of chances for Oklahoma City to get out on the break and generate easy points in transition. All things considered, I’ll take Minnesota to get in the win column at home.
Read our OKC Thunder vs Minnesota Timberwolves Game 3 prediction
Anthony Edwards to score 25+ points (-215)
It has been a frustrating series so far for Anthony Edwards, more so from a perspective of not getting enough help from his teammate, as opposed to not playing up to his standards. He bounced back in a big way after a disappointing Game 1 by scoring 32 points on Thursday, but it wasn’t enough to prevent his team from going down 0-2. Ant Man refused to speak to reporters after that loss, the pressure is now piling up on Minnesota to respond after losing those two opening games in this series. Playing at home should lift the spirts around the team a bit, I’m looking at Edwards to assert himself early and often. Games like these are where you make a name for yourself and if he wants to become the new face of the NBA, Edwards has to deliver here. Scoring 25 points shouldn’t be too difficult, he has averaged 26.8 per game in round 1 vs the Lakers, following it up with 26.2 per game in Round 2 vs the Warriors and so far in this series he’s at 25 per game while clearing this line in Game 2. Something tells me he and the Timberwolves won’t be giving up so easily in this series, Ant Man will get his numbers on Saturday.
Chet Holmgren 2+ made threes (+118)
In Game 2 the Thunder realized just how of a tricky cover Chet Holmgren is for the Timberwolves, his shot attempts went up from 9 in Game 1 to 17 in Thursday’s game. I expect that trend to continue as this series progresses, Holmgren has done a fabulous job disrupting the Timberwolves defensive schemes by stepping outside, forcing Rudy Gobert out on the perimeter which opens up the middle of the paint for SGA and co. to attack. The 112-64 advantage in paint points through the first two games confirm that theory, if you’re Oklahoma City you don’t really want to change up your game-plan all that much since it’s giving you results. Holmgren went 1-for-6 from downtown in Game 2, which is rather disappointing for a player shooting over 40% from three in his last 10 games. In two regular season meetings he shot over 66% from three vs Minnesota, that stat alone gives me confidence he will do better in Saturday’s game. The T’Wolves were one of the better 3-point defenses in the regular season, but they have been all over the place in this series. Hopefully Holmgren can take advantage in Game 2.
