NFL Week 12 kicks off with a Thursday Night Football matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Houston Texans. It’s a vital AFC matchup for both teams as they look to muscle their way back into divisional contention while also keeping an eye on making the playoffs in general. The Bills pulled away from the Bucs last week thanks to a 6-touchdown effort from Josh Allen, while the Texans were locked in a tight battle with the Titans before edging that one. Bills vs Texans on TNF kicks off at 8:15 pm ET live on Amazon Prime Video, and here at Pickswise, we have everything you need to bet on this game! You can find out our NFL picks on the side and total, along with our experts’ best NFL player prop bets and Same Game Parlay picks. Let’s get into our Bills vs Texans picks and TNF predictions.
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NFL TNF picks & Bills vs Texans predictions
Chris Farley’s Bills vs Texans spread pick: Texans +6 (-110)
Thursday Night Football gets NFL Week 12 started as the Buffalo Bills head to NRG Stadium to take on the Houston Texans.
Week 11 was a microcosm of who the Bills and Texans are, and in many ways, they couldn’t be more different. Buffalo is nothing without their quarterback. In a full display of the quintessential Josh Allen experience, Allen threw some preposterous interceptions, lending Tampa easy scoring situations on multiple occasions.
On the other hand, Allen completely dominated the Bucs’ defense, gaining 6 total touchdowns along with 317 passing yards and 40 rushing yards. Most of the contest was a back-and-forth affair, as markets expected, and the Bills’ defense wasn’t exactly buttoned up. Tampa piled up 21 first downs and 32 points on 367 total yards, including an impressive 9-16 conversion rate on 3rd downs. Once again, the Bills’ front-seven proved it’s not championship caliber right now, allowing 202 rushing yards to a Bucs ground game that’s not highly ranked in that area (22nd).
The Texans won in Week 11 in the exact opposite way, as they do most weeks. Without CJ Stroud, Houston was in a tough position facing a division rival off their bye week, but they did a good job maintaining their composure. In yet another low-scoring game, the Texans managed to eventually gain 315 yards, more than enough to take out a Titans offense that looked pedestrian throughout the contest. The fact that they allowed Tennessee to hang around so long wasn’t a good look, but it was evident that the Texans were clearly the better program. Their defense, which remains the #1 unit in the NFL, was once again their anchor. Surviving the scare, Houston faces a much bigger test at home on just a few days of rest.
While these 2 teams aren’t the same as last season, the Texans won in a low-scoring 23-20 battle the last time they faced off. If they want to have a chance against Allen and the Bills, they’ll need to control the game in the same manner. More than any of the other 3 units in this battle, the Texans’ defense has been the most consistent. We’ll count on them to keep it closer than the market expects.
Chris Farley’s Bills vs Texans total prediction: Under 43.5 (-110)
Since the Bills and Texans are built so differently, predicting a total becomes that much more challenging. Houston sits in 3rd in the AFC South despite owning the NFL’s best defense, a group that allows just 16.3 points (1st) and 258.1 yards (1st) per game. It looks like they’ll still be without CJ Stroud on Thursday Night Football, who remains in concussion protocol, but with or without CJ Stroud, their offense just hasn’t been very good this season. They average just 22 points (21st) and gain just 329.6 yards per game (19th). Davis Mills has done a good job in Stroud’s absence (726 yards, 60% completion rate, 3 touchdowns, 1 interception), but the Bills are better against the pass than they are against the run. Buffalo is top-5 in sack rate and holds opposing QBs to just 169.7 passing yards per game (2nd).
We think Houston will score here and there, but this total will be decided when the Bills are on offense. Josh Allen is incomparable and impossible to accurately predict. He’s also prone to making mistakes against great defenses. Last season a very similarly constructed Texans’ resistance completely stymied the future Hall of Famer, limiting the Bills’ leader to just 9-30 for only 131 yards. When Buffalo has success on the ground, they generally have a big offensive day. They’re first in rush yards per game (147.6), but the Texans are also top-3 in that category defensively, permitting just 3.9 yards per rush. This total has to carry some weight because the game features Josh Allen, but it’s a tick too high considering the home team’s style.
Find out NFL pro bettor Chris Farley’s Bills vs Texans best bets for TNF. Our experts are up +25.7 units this season!
Bills vs Texans player prop bets
Caleb Wilfinger’s best Bills vs Texans player prop bet: Josh Allen (BUF) anytime touchdown scorer (-105)
Over the last couple of seasons, I’ve often targeted Josh Allen to find the end zone with his legs, and those tickets have cashed repeatedly. The Bills often turn to their superstar quarterback to dig them out of a hole when the chips are down, and he typically uses his legs to do so. Now in his 3rd year as the offensive coordinator, Joe Brady’s reliance on Allen’s legs in pivotal spots has been consistent all season long, and I expect that to continue on TNF in a game where the Bills need to win in order to keep pace with the Patriots in the race for the AFC East division crown.
Allen racked up a whopping 9 touchdowns on the ground in between Week 10 and Week 16 a season ago as the Bills made a push for seeding in the AFC playoff picture. While I don’t quite expect that level of insane production this time around, it’s notable that Allen finished with 6 total touchdowns a week ago, including 3 on the ground. The Wyoming product has found the end zone with his legs in 3 of the Bills’ last 4 contests, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if Allen gets multiple opportunities in the red zone in this one. Given the fact that his rushing workload around the goal line has ticked up in recent weeks, this prop still feels a bit mispriced at the current number, so let’s take advantage and back Allen to score a touchdown once again on Thursday Night Football.
See our best Bills vs Texans player prop bets for TNF
JutPicks’ Bills vs Texans TD scorer prediction: Keon Coleman (BUF) anytime touchdown scorer (+400)
It hit rock bottom for Keon Coleman last week, as he was inactive for missing a team meeting earlier in the week. At the time of this publishing, the Bills have yet to announce if Coleman will suit up on Thursday night — but with Mecole Hardman, Curtis Samuel and Dalton Kincaid listed as out, there is a void in the pass-catcher room.
Josh Allen went full Superman last week, running in 3 touchdowns while tossing 2 to his running backs, James Cook and Ty Johnson. Wide Receiver Tyrell Shavers made the most of his opportunity, catching 4 balls for 90 yards and a touchdown. Nonetheless, after Shavers and Gabe Davis — who played in his first game of the season last week — the Bills are searching for answers on the outside. That’s a role I’m optimistic Coleman can fill, even with how poor his season has been so far.
JutPicks’ Bills vs Texans touchdown scorer pick: Jayden Higgins (HOU) anytime touchdown scorer (+525)
As much as I want to take another shot at a Bills pass-catcher, this Texans defense is lethal. The Texans boast one of the best all-around groups, allowing the fourth-fewest touchdowns on the year. As such, I will pivot to Texans rookie Jayden Higgins — my second Bills vs Texans TD scorer.
Higgins is playing the second-most snaps of the Texans’ receiver room behind Nico Collins, who is playing from the slot. Christian Kirk continues to receive extended work, but it has yet to impact Higgins’ workload. His routes win rate and separation score continue to rise as the season progresses. With Davis Mills under center once again and a likely negative game script, Higgins is a fine bet at more than +500 to find the end zone.
Get JutPicks’ full analysis for his Bills vs Texans touchdown scorer best bets for TNF
Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans Same Game Parlay
Our experts have cashed 3 of their last 4 NFL SGPs at +750, +450 and +753 odds! Check out Ricky Dimon’s full Bills vs Texans SGP analysis below.
Texans +3.5 alternate spread (+122)
I simply can’t bet against the Texans’ defense. Playing at home helps, as well. All things considered, I think Houston can make this game low scoring to the extent that it should be able to stay within a field goal – if not even win it outright. The Texans are #1 in the league by a country mile in total defense, holding opponents to 258.1 yards per game. They are also #1 in scoring (16.3 points per game allowed), #3 in passing (171.0 yards), #3 in rushing (87.1 yards) and #5 in turnovers forced (16).
Davis Mills will likely be back under center for Houston with CJ Stroud in concussion protocol, but Mills is a capable backup who has a lot of experience. Meanwhile, Buffalo has lost 2 of their last 3 road games, including by 10 points against Atlanta and by 17 points against Miami. And those 2 teams aren’t even good!
Woody Marks Over 63.5 rushing yards (-114)
There is no denying that the Texans have struggled on the ground this season, but even they can find success against this Bills outfit. Buffalo is atrocious against the run, giving up the 2nd-most rushing yards per contest at 153.0. Its 5.4 yards per carry allowed are also the 2nd-most league-wide. Marks may not be anything special, but the rookie out of USC is capable of taking advantage. He has churned out 62 yards or more in 3 of the last 7 outings and in 2 of the last 4. Marks should get plenty of attempts as well, given that it is in Houston’s best interest to keep the ball on the ground, move the clock and relegate Allen to the sideline for as long as possible.
Josh Allen anytime touchdown scorer (-115)
I have no qualms about throwing this leg into our Bills vs Texans SGP despite picking Houston to keep it within a field goal. Head coach DeMeco Ryans’ team needs to contain everyone else in order to be competitive. We – the Texans included – can accept Allen finding the end zone as a given. He has scored a ridiculous 7 touchdowns in the last 4 contests, including 3 in this past Sunday’s victory over Tampa Bay. Obviously, Houston’s defense is amazing, but that could actually work in Allen’s favor when it pertains to this particular bet. He will probably have to do a lot of improvising when his first reads are taken away. Count on him doing a lot of stuff by himself – that includes taking one in for a score.
Bills vs Texans Parlay odds: +619
NFL Week 12 predictions
Get set for all the Week 12 action by seeing our experts’ picks and NFL predictions on the side and total for EVERY GAME this week.
- Colts vs Chiefs predictions
- Steelers vs Bears predictions
- Vikings vs Packers predictions
- Jaguars vs Cardinals predictions
- Falcons vs Saints predictions
- Eagles vs Cowboys predictions
- Buccaneers vs Rams predictions for Sunday Night Football
- Panthers vs 49ers predictions for Monday Night Football
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