Thursday Night Football gets NFL Week 15 started and it begins with a crunch clash in the NFC South, as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons are in a complete tailspin, losing 7 of their last 8 games after a promising start to the season. As for the Bucs, they’ve dropped 4 of their last 5 and now have the Panthers breathing down their necks in the race to win the division. Falcons vs Buccaneers kicks off at 8:15 pm ET live on Amazon Prime Video, and we’ve got everything you need to bet on this game. You can find out our NFL picks on the side and total, Prop Holliday and JutPicks’ expert NFL player prop bets, and even a Same Game Parlay! Let’s get into our Falcons vs Bucs picks and TNF predictions!
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Falcons vs Buccaneers predictions & NFL TNF picks
Chris Farley’s Falcons vs Bucs spread pick: Buccaneers -4.5 (-110)
Once the clear leaders of the NFC South, the Falcons and Bucs are both reeling after another bad performance. In Atlanta’s case it’s par for the course, a program lost at this point of the season. Coach Raheem Morris seems to have no true influence over his roster, either. Over the past eight weeks their only win was against the Saints, a fellow NFC South bottom feeder, and even in that matchup they were out-gained 21-13 in first downs. Kirk Cousins looked especially bad in Week 14, completing just 15-30 for 162 yards and two interceptions. The defense continues to regress as well, allowing the Seahawks to put up 31 points in the second half last Sunday. In short, there’s no good reason to trust Atlanta right now, even if the team they’re facing next is going through their own share of problems.
The Bucs dominated survivor entries and teaser-legs all over the country in Week 14 in what seemed to be an auto-play for many bettors. That didn’t go so well. The Saints showed up to compete, putting up 17 points en-route to victory in southern Florida. Baker Mayfield played as poorly as Kirk Cousins last Sunday, going 14-30 for 122 yards (4.1 yards per pass), one touchdown and one interception. The Bucs’ defense, which now ranks 14th in total EPA, eventually capitulated, but their offense is far more disappointing. Decimated by injuries, the Bucs’ offense sunk to 22nd in total EPA metrics, a sad measure considering they looked like one of the most explosive offenses early in the season.
The good news for Tampa is that they’re getting healthier. Their best offensive lineman, Tristan Wirfs, sat out last Sunday but is trending towards suiting up on Thursday. Even better, their star wide-receiver, Mike Evans, has logged four straight practices and looks to return after missing seven weeks of action. Even without those two stalwarts, the Bucs need this win to further cement their lead in the NFC South. The Falcons are showing no signs of progression, nor do they have much to play for.
Chris Farley’s Falcons vs Buccaneers total prediction: Over 44 (-110)
The Bucs’ offense isn’t what it used to be at the start of the season but that doesn’t mean it can’t improve again. Thursday is also a good spot for positive regression. Atlanta’s defense has been spiraling for quite some time. Since Week 8 they’ve allowed 28 points per game. Four out of those seven opponents hit or eclipsed 30 points. Mike Evans is trending towards playing on Thursday, but even if he doesn’t the Falcons are officially 26th in defensive EPA per rush, permitting 4.5 yards per carry (24th). Bucky Irving has played well but has yet to make a big splash since his return in Week 13. We think this is the ideal opportunity. Baker will look to correct his transgressions from last week, too (4.4 yards per play). We expect a much better showing from the whole offense.
On the other side, the Falcons’ defense looked lost in Week 14 and has looked lost for weeks, but the Falcons’ offense still shows flashes of its talent here and there. Kirk Cousins had one of his worst outings as a professional quarterback in Week 14. It’s likely this could be his final stretch of games as a starter in the league. If I’m Kirk and I’m battling a Bucs’ defense that hasn’t played well (Tampa is 20th in defensive EPA per pass), I’m excited to take advantage of this matchup. And it’s not like Atlanta hasn’t done well against the Bucs before. Back in Week 1, they totaled 358 yards and 23 first downs on Todd Bowles’ defense, a battle they should have won.
Both offenses are due for a better day, particularly the Bucs. On a short week and both rosters battered at this point of the season, we like both offenses to rule the day.
Read NFL pro bettor Chris Farley’s full analysis for his Falcons vs Bucs TNF predictions as he looks to add to his current 14-6 run!
Falcons vs Buccaneers player prop bets
Best Falcons vs Bucs player prop bet: Chris Godwin (TB) over 3.5 receptions (-112)
There is a lot of hype about Mike Evans returning this week to secure a playoff spot for Tampa Bay after their recent struggles, and that’s kept this line down at a tantalizing 3.5 for one of the best slot receivers in the NFL. Chris Godwin returned 3 weeks ago from injury and he’s seen his snap counts return to 69%, growing week over week. In the last 2 games where he’s seen 66% of snaps, he’s had 5 and 8 targets. He has just 2 drops on 30 targets this season and 12 of those targets were in the middle of the field, which is where the Falcons blitz can create a funnel in the middle of the field for Godwin to exploit.
I do not see the return of Evans and Jalen McMillan as eating into Godwin’s snaps, but rather less attention given to Godwin from opposing secondaries, allowing him to find soft spots in their zone (8th-most zone coverage in the NFL). I would go as high as 6+ receptions if I was laddering up for alt-line action, but Godwin should easily be able to get 4 catches tonight.
Lock in Prop Holliday’s best TNF player prop bets for Falcons vs Buccaneers
Falcons vs Buccaneers TD scorer best bet: Kyle Pitts (ATL) anytime touchdown scorer (+240)
There are question marks on both offenses heading into Thursday’s contest. For the visitors, the Falcons will be without their top pass-catcher, Drake London, while Kyle Pitts has a questionable tag due to a knee injury. However, we’re going to roll the dice with Pitts suiting up and finding the end zone in Tampa Bay. Since Kirk Cousins took over from the injured Michael Penix Jr., Pitts has shone as the most targeted player on the Falcons by 16 targets and 12 receptions. His receptions line is set at 5.5, which is an indication that Cousins will be looking his way in what is likely a trailing game script. All that gives Pitts great value to score a touchdown at +240.
Falcons vs Bucs TNF TD scorer prediction: Chris Godwin (TB) anytime touchdown scorer (+235)
The Buccaneers, led by Baker Mayfield, have regressed over the last month, with 4 losses and 1 win since their Week 9 bye. But reinforcements are coming with Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan being activated from the injured reserve. Still, we’re going to back Chris Godwin, who has seen his snap share and usage increase over the last 3 weeks. He’ll likely play upwards of 75% of the offensive snaps for the Bucs after a team-leading 27% target share last week. With that in mind, there’s a bit of value on Godwin to find the end zone on TNF.
After recent TD scorer winners last week at +500, +425 and +310 odds, make sure you lock in tonight’s TNF touchdown scorer best bets
Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Same Game Parlay
After cashing our MNF SGP at +1000 odds, we’ve now hit 5 winners in 4 weeks! Don’t miss our Falcons vs Bucs Same Game Parlay for TNF below
Buccaneers -4.5 over Falcons (-105)
For the first leg of our Falcons vs Buccaneers Same Game Parlay, we’re going to be backing the home team laying the points. Tampa Bay has been quite poor in recent weeks, as the Bucs have dropped 4 of their last 5 games. Despite the fact that Todd Bowles’ team appears to be in the midst of a massive slide, this presents the Buccaneers with a nice bounce-back spot in a game where Tampa Bay should finally have the likes of Mike Evans and Tristan Wirfs back in the lineup.
It goes without saying that this should be the healthiest the Bucs offense has been in some time, and that should put them in position to succeed against a Falcons defense that is on the decline of late. I can only look toward the hosts on TNF.
Over 43.5 (-125)
This is an instance where I’m bullish on a higher-scoring game than what the market is expecting. On one side, the Buccaneers offense isn’t what it was earlier in the season, but Tampa Bay has a pretty favorable matchup on Thursday against an Atlanta defense that has been trending downward in recent weeks. In fact, the Falcons have surrendered 28 points per game over the last 7 weeks, and Atlanta has allowed 30 or more points in 4 of those contests.
On the other side, the Falcons offense has shown flashes of life with Kirk Cousins back at the helm in recent weeks, and Tampa Bay’s defense (20th in EPA per pass) just struggled against Tyler Shough and the anemic Saints offense a week ago. With that in mind, let’s roll with the over on TNF.
Bucky Irving (TB) over 20.5 receiving yards (-114)
Bucky Irving has dealt with a ton of injuries in his 2nd season in the NFL, and while the Buccaneers’ running back has struggled on the ground in his 6 games this season, he’s been very active in the passing game out of the backfield. Irving shouldn’t get as much of a workload on the ground given that this game is taking place on a short week and Rachaad White should split the carries in this matchup.
The Oregon product has been a consistent target for Mayfield in the passing game, with Irving racking up 23 receptions in his 6 games played this season to go along with 240 receiving yards. Irving has cleared this number in each of his last 5 games played, so let’s go back to that well on Thursday Night Football.
Falcons vs Buccaneers SGP odds: +500
NFL Week 15 predictions
Get set for this week’s NFL action with our expert NFL picks for EVERY Week 15 game!
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