Thursday Night Football kickstarts NFL Week 14 with a HUGE matchup in the NFC as the Dallas Cowboys visit Ford Field to take on the Detroit Lions. Both teams are currently outside the playoff places and desperate for a victory to keep their postseason hopes alive. The Cowboys have taken care of last season’s Super Bowl participants in their last 2 games, while the Lions just fell to the Packers on Thanksgiving to drop to 7-5. Cowboys vs Lions kicks off at 8:15 pm ET live on Amazon Prime Video, and we’ve got everything you need to bet on this game. You can find out our NFL picks on the side and total, Prop Holliday and JutPicks’ expert NFL player prop bets and even a Same Game Parlay. Let’s get into our Cowboys vs Lions TNF predictions!
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Cowboys vs Lions predictions & NFL TNF picks
Chris Farley’s Cowboys vs Eagles spread pick: Cowboys +3 (-105)
Perceptions have never been higher on the Cowboys. One week after knocking off the Eagles, a game that sent Philly’s hopes into a spiral, Jerry Jones’ franchise beat the Kansas City Chiefs, cementing victories against each of last year’s Super Bowl attendees. Dallas’ Thanksgiving win might’ve been more impressive than their Week 13 takedown of the Eagles since it included more big plays from their defense. Obviously a different group than the bottom-feeders that started the season, the Cowboys’ defense held Kansas City to just 6 yards per play and 5-13 on 3rd down.
Fresh new faces this season made impacts throughout the game, including 2 sacks by Jadeveon Clowney, one by Dante Fowler Jr., and others made key stops when it mattered. Their offense continued to show off, too. Against one of the best defenses and best defensive coaches in the NFL, Dak Prescott avenged an early interception to go 27/39 for 320 yards and 2 touchdowns. The bulk of that production came from his 2 all-world receivers, George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb, who combined for 13 catches, 200 yards and a touchdown. Their ground attack also continued to exceed expectations (26 carries for 137 yards), good for 5.3 yards per carry.
Perhaps most important of all, Cowboys coach Brian Schottenheimer was in full command against the 3-time Super Bowl-winning Chiefs, outwitting Steve Spagnuolo in key moments of the game. At 6-5-1, Dallas is in position to threaten for an NFC East crown, believe it or not!
Things didn’t go so smoothly for the Lions on Thanksgiving. Just like 2 seasons ago, they allowed Jordan Love and an upstart Packers’ offense to slice through their resistance when it mattered. Green Bay threw for 7.8 yards per pass and eventually put up 31 points, and then their defense shut down the Lions’ offense in the 4th quarter. It was a startling showing from Dan Campbell’s program, an outfit we expect to show up and play elite football in these spots. Even worse, Detroit has key injuries throughout their offense. Amon-Ra St. Brown is officially a game-time decision on Thursday, Detroit is down to its 3rd tight end and center Graham Glasnow remains out.
Our first inclination was to go with Detroit off a loss, at home, and with increasing desperation to get their season back on track. But there’s too much momentum on Dallas’ side right now, and we’re not sure how the Lions will be able to stop Dak and his first-class offense (4th in EPA per pass). We’ll go with the visitors.
Chris Farley’s Cowboys vs Lions best bet: Over 53.5 (-120)
The obvious approach in a game with 2 offenses as potent as the Cowboys and Lions is to consider the over. Markets obviously know that. Even at opening, this total was far above average and has barely budged, now circulating around 53.5 depending on the book. Both programs have shown impressive defensive performances at various junctures this season, but for the most part Dallas and Detroit are well below the mean on that side of the ball.
For example, although they’ve played better recently, the Cowboys rank in the bottom 5 in opponent points per game and points per play and in opponent yards per game in yards per play. Lately their defense has been aided by new additions Quinnen Williams and Logan Wilson, who coincidentally arrived around the same time that Dallas’ defensive roster got healthier. That helped their resistance limit the Raiders to 16 and the Eagles to 21 points, but last week they still permitted 28 to the Chiefs, a team far more comparable to the high-powered Lions.
It’s tough not to be disappointed by Detroit’s performance last Thursday, but one must keep in mind that it was against a tough divisional opponent. Green Bay seems to have Detroit’s number. Dallas can say no such thing. Last season, the Cowboys allowed a similarly constructed Lions’ roster to put up 47 points at AT&T Stadium. This Thursday, Detroit is surely incurring some injury problems, but they should also be hyper-motivated to correct their mistakes, especially since the NFC North crown is at risk of slipping away. And as most know, the Lions depend on their offense to carry them to victory (they’re top three in points and yards per game).
We could get cute here, but we must take the over.
Read Chris Farley’s full analysis for his Cowboys vs Lions predictions for TNF, where he is currently on a 10-1 run with his spread picks!
Cowboys vs Lions player prop bets
Best Cowboys vs Lions player prop bet: Jared Goff (DET) over 253.5 passing yards (-112)
It’s easy to look at the injuries of Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta and assume that Detroit will rely more on it’s run game to get past Dallas, but since the Cowboys made the trade for DT Quinnen Williams, their rush defense has greatly improved. Furthermore, even without the weaponry, Jared Goff is a significantly better QB indoors at Ford field. Goff is averaging 260.3 yards per game at home this season, which is a whopping 17 yards better than on the road. While the Cowboys’ defense has improved, this is a unit that is still ranked 30th overall in passing yards allowed this season.
I’m comfortable playing a discounted number on Goff due to the St. Brown and LaPorta injuries when you factor in how bad Dallas’ secondary has been this season. Gibbs and Jameson Williams are still exceptional pass-catching targets for Goff that can get him to the 260-yard mark at home.
Lock in Prop Holliday’s best TNF player prop bets for Cowboys vs Lions
Cowboys vs Lions TD scorer best bet: Dak Prescott (DAL) anytime touchdown scorer (+650)
A win on Thursday Night Football would have Cowboy fans murmuring Super Bowl aspirations. The rest of the schedule features home games against the Vikings and Chargers, as well as a meeting with the Giants to conclude the season. A run of productive games would have Dak Prescott right in the middle of the MVP conversation, and there’s no better way to bolster those claims than to run in a touchdown on primetime.
Prescott has been limited on the ground these last few seasons, but he’s rushed for 2 touchdowns thus far. As a team, the Cowboys rank in the top half of the NFL in red-zone touchdown percentage. TNF includes a matchup against a depleted Lions defense that is allowing a touchdown on 63% of drives that enter the red zone. I’m willing to take a flyer on Prescott to score a TD at +650 odds with a Cowboys implied team total of 26 points, which is the top 5 on the slate.
Cowboys vs Lions TNF TD scorer prediction: Kavontae Turpin (DAL) anytime touchdown scorer (+600)
I’m going to continue the fun on the Cowboys side with a shot at Kavontae Turpin finding the end zone at +600 for our 2nd Cowboys vs Lions TD scorer. Turpin has game-breaking speed, which ultimately saved the Cowboys’ season on Thanksgiving. He jumped on a George Pickens fumble in the red zone, which later resulted in a crucial Brandon Aubrey field goal. He’s playing upwards of 35% of the offensive snaps since the bye week — an indication that the Cowboys like what they see when they spread the offense out.
After TD scorer winners last week at +500, +425 and +310 odds, make sure you lock in tonight’s Cowboys vs Lions touchdown scorer best bets
Dallas Cowboys vs Detroit Lions Same Game Parlay
After cashing last week’s Bengals vs Ravens TNF SGP, we’ve now hit 4 winners in 4 weeks at +753, +750, +525 and +450 odds! Don’t miss our Cowboys vs Lions SGP for TNF
Cowboys ML (+142)
For the first leg of our Cowboys vs Lions Same Game Parlay, we’re going to be backing the visitors on the money line. Both of these teams have gone through ebbs and flows this season, but the Cowboys are certainly playing like the better team at the moment. Detroit is clearly missing the services of Ben Johnson as offensive coordinator, but the same can’t be said for the Cowboys — as Dallas is arguably the best offense in football at the moment. Dak Prescott is playing at an MVP level and the Cowboys running game has been extremely efficient against quality competition of late. On the other side of the ball, the Dallas defense has improved thanks to its trade deadline acquisitions, and this pass rush should be able to generate pressure on Jared Goff and force the veteran quarterback into mistakes.
The Lions have typically been an excellent team at home in the Dan Campbell era, but it has been tough sledding for Detroit in its recent home games. In fact, the Lions have been struggling at Ford Field of late, with Detroit losing outright as a favorite against the Packers a week ago, in addition to dropping a recent home game to the lowly Vikings and failing to cover the spread against the banged-up Giants a few weeks ago. Detroit’s defense has allowed a combined 85 points in its last 3 home games, with 2 of those games coming against the likes of JJ McCarthy and Jameis Winston. That doesn’t bode well for this beleaguered defense against a much stronger opponent this week.
Over 53.5 (-112)
This is an instance where I’m bullish on a higher-scoring game given what both teams are capable of. While Detroit’s offense hasn’t always looked crisp this season, the Lions’ offense did score 24 points against the stout Packers defense a week ago, and arguably should’ve scored more when looking at the box score. While the Dallas defense is certainly improved, this is still a much easier matchup for Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs and company at home on a fast track.
On the other side, the Cowboys offense has been one of the most efficient units in football all season long, and I’m certainly not stepping in front of them this week, especially given that they have another favorable matchup in an environment that is conducive to scoring. Let’s roll with the over on TNF.
George Pickens (DAL) anytime touchdown scorer (+125)
Not only has George Pickens been a pleasant surprise for the Cowboys this season, he’s actually been one of the best receivers in football, potentially even surpassing teammate CeeDee Lamb in the process. To his credit, this is certainly the most focused and committed Pickens has been during his time in the NFL and this newfound focus has shown up on the stat sheet. Entering this game, the former Steeler has racked up over 1,100 receiving yards on 73 receptions, while adding 8 touchdowns as well. Pickens has more than proven himself as a trustworthy option in the red zone, so I’ll turn to the dynamic wide receiver to keep making an impact on Thursday.
Cowboys vs Lions SGP odds: +650
NFL Week 14 predictions
Get set for this week’s NFL action with our expert NFL picks for EVERY Week 14 game!
- Colts vs Jaguars prediction
- Dolphins vs Jets prediction
- Steelers vs Ravens prediction
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- Texans vs Chiefs prediction for Sunday Night Football
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