Filip Tomic
And just like that we have the Western Conference Finals beginning as the Timberwolves and Thunder clash in Game 1 on Tuesday. Tip-off is at 8.30 pm ET on ESPN, I’ve prepared a +345 odds Same Game Parlay to spice things up.
Get predictions on the side and total for all NBA Conference Finals and Finals games on our NBA Picks page but now let’s get into my Timberwolves vs Thunder Game 1 bet!
MIN Timberwolves +7.5 (-110)
Naz Reid 2+ Made Threes (-132)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to Score 30+ Points (-162)
Same Game Parlay odds: +345
MIN Timberwolves +7.5 (-110)
It has been a relatively smooth ride for the Timberwolves in the opening two rounds of the postseason, but now things get serious as they face the Thunder in the West Finals. Anthony Edwards and co. have not played a competitive game since wrapping up their series against the Warriors, that’ll give them 5 full days of rest in between games which could be a factor coming into the series opener. As we all saw, OKC had to play all 7 games to dispose of Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets who just ran out of gas in the end. Depth has never been a problem for OKC, but there could be lingering effects after playing such a huge game over the weekend as we go into the next series just 48 hours later.
The four regular season meetings saw the two teams split the 4 games, interestingly the road team came out on top in the last two games. Minnesota was the underdog in all 4 of them, covering the spread 3 times. For Game 1 the oddsmakers have opted for a 7.5 point spread which sounds like a lot considering only one of the regular season meetings saw a team win by more than 8 points. If we look at the last 8 meetings played in OKC, the T’Wolves have won 6 of those while in the last 17 games head-to-head they are 12-5 SU. This should be a close series, I’ll take my chances with Ant Man and co. covering the spread in the opener on Tuesday.
Naz Reid 2+ Made Threes (-132)
His point average is down slightly compared to the regular season, but Naz Reid’s impact should not be underestimated on the success of the Timberwolves so far. The former 6th man of the year is averaging 11.6 points per game in 10 games so far, his efficiency has been off the charts at 52.6% from three and 50% from downtown on 2.2 makes per game. Although he failed to clear this line in the last 2 games of the Warriors series, he’s 6-2 in the first 8 games of the postseason. Catching the Thunder off guard in the series opener could be the key to winning this series, there could be a bit of a hangover effect on their side after the Nuggets took them the distance. Red averaged 22.5 points per game in 4 regular season meetings vs OKC, shooting just over 45% from the field. Entering this game he’s currently on a streak of 3 consecutive meetings with at least 2 threes made, while in the last 9 games head-to-head he has failed to clear this line just one time vs the Thunder. Let’s stick with the reliable hand of Naz Reid and back him to knock down a pair of triples here.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to Score 30+ Points (-162)
Fresh off Sunday’s 125-93 win in Game 7 over the Nuggets thanks to SGA’s 35 points, the likely regular season MVP is looking to continue his impressive postseason run in Game 1 of the Conference Finals. As the postseason has progressed, SGA has been able to get over some early struggles and is now in his standard 30+ point per game production mode. For the postseason he’s at 29 per game in 11 games so far, but he’s cleared this line in 3 straight against the Nuggets, while shooting better than 50% in each of those games. HE dominated the Timberwolves during the 4 regular season meetings putting up 35 points per game on average, shooting 51.1% from the field and 55.6% from three. Those type of numbers are hard to overlook coming into this series, Minnesota seemingly doesn’t have an answer for him. Obviously, this being the postseason we can expect adjustments as this series progresses, but for Game 1 I’m counting on SGA to deliver another solid performance as the Thunder play their first Conference Finals game in 9 years.
