Caleb Wilfinger
Game 3 of this Western Conference second round series between the undermanned Warriors without Steph Curry against the feisty, young and talented Timberwolves should be a gritty, physical contest — much like what we saw in the first couple of games. The Warriors took Game 1 behind a sensational shooting display from Curry (prior to his hamstring injury) and a big game from a number of role players, while the Timberwolves punched back with a massive effort in Game 2 to even the series.
With the series shifting to the Bay Area, here is my Same Game Parlay for the action, which tips off at 8:30 pm ET on ABC. Also be sure to check out all of our NBA predictions.
Timberwolves alternate spread -9.5 (+200)
Brandin Podziemski over 3.5 assists (-125)
Parlay odds: +460
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that your odds will be longer if the legs aren’t correlated with each other, if you so choose. That is part of the plan here, as Warriors guard Brandin Podziemski going over his assists prop does work well with a win by the road team. Let’s break down all of the SGP legs.
Timberwolves alternate spread -9.5 (+200)
To start off our Same Game Parlay, I’m going to take the Timberwolves on an alternate line to win by at least 10 points. Golden State’s biggest concern right now is how to get enough points on the board, seeing that Curry is going to be out once again in this game. Head coach Steve Kerr dug deep into his bench in each of the first 2 games, playing every single player on the roster by the 3rd quarter of Game 2. And while Jonathan Kuminga went off for 18 points in Game 2, the rest of the offense was largely a mess without Curry on the floor. The offensive rating of the Warriors is in the low 90s without Curry, and I expect that to continue on Saturday while the greatest shooter ever continues to rehab his hamstring injury.
With Curry’s absence in mind, I can’t really see Golden State challenging the Timberwolves in this game, unless we get a vintage performance from Jimmy Butler. Minnesota has already won twice on the road this postseason and the Timberwolves are actually 4-1 straight up in their last 5 visits to Chase Center. I’m rolling with Anthony Edwards and the much deeper team to get the job done in Game 3.
Brandin Podziemski over 3.5 assists (-125)
For our second and final leg of this Same Game Parlay, let’s target Brandin Podziemski to clear his assists prop for the third straight game in this series. The Warriors guard has suddenly been thrust into the role of distributor with Curry out of the picture, and I’d expect Podziemski to get plenty of minutes seeing as he is one of the few true 2-way players on this team that can also pass and set up teammates. The Santa Clara product had 6 assists on 9 potential assists in Game 2 and he’s also averaged nearly 5 assists in games without Curry this season. Look for that trend to continue in Saturday’s contest.
