Today's Best NBA Prop Bet Pick & Prediction, Saturday 3/30: Franz Wagner steals the show

Orlando Magic forward Franz Wagner (22) shoots the ball against Miami Heat center Omer Yurtseven (77) during the second half at Amway Center
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With baseball and the Elite 8 taking center stage, the NBA will take a backseat and have just a 3-game slate on Saturday. However, I’ve assessed the lines on tonight’s NBA action and have found a player prop bet with value. Let’s dive into my favorite NBA player prop bet today, while you can also check out our NBA picks for today’s action.

Franz Wagner, ORL, Over 17.5 points (-120)

Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.

Backing an over of a player on a team playing on the second leg of back-to-back and 13-point favorites is not my forte. But Franz Wagner has an excellent opportunity to smash his points line of 17.5 on Saturday against the Memphis Grizzles.

Playing his best ball on a back-to-back is nothing new for Wagner. He’s averaging 21.2 points in 12 games on the second leg. That includes surpassing 17 points in 7 of 11 games with Paolo Banchero active. Jalen Suggs has seen his usage rise lately, taking some field goal attempts from Wagner. During the season, Wagner has attempted over 15 shots per game, but in the last 10 games, that has dropped to 13 – a slight concern.

The Grizzles are more than ready to get this season over. The injuries have piled up. Desmond Bane will not be active tonight after playing back-to-back games and seeing 30+ minutes. We’ll need the Grizzles to make this game somewhat competitive, but Wagner has smashed his points line in wins this season. He’s over in 28 of 39 wins while being over in 18 of 24 wins by 15+ points.

FanDuel Sportsbook is nice enough to offer this line at a slight discount compared to other major books. You’ll have to drink some juice at -120, but 18.5 points is priced at just -110 on DraftKings.

Read our full Memphis Grizzles vs Orlando Magic prediction

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