Today's Best NBA Prop Bet Pick & Prediction, Thursday 2/15: DPOY Jaren Jackson fires away

Grizzlies forward Jaren Jackson Jr.
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We have made it through the 1st half of the NBA season and it’s been a memorable one. I’m 34-23 on Pickswise plays, while 193-122 for +54 units on the season overall on Twitter. Let’s dive into my top NBA player prop bet for Thursday, February 15.

In addition to that, make sure you read our NBA predictions for the 3 games on the docket tonight.

Jaren Jackson Jr, C, MEM, Over 22.5 points (-120)

Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing.

If you don’t have access to BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook is offering the same line at just 3 cents worse. Compare that to DraftKings, where this is priced at -135, and we have solid value. Not to mention that FanDuel has already bumped Jaren Jackson Jr. to 23.5 points. Let’s dive into my analysis for Jackson against the Milwaukee Bucks.

I could go through the extensive list of injuries the Memphis Grizzlies have sustained this season, but it would be too long. All you need to know is JJJ is continuing to log usage rates of over 30%. Jackson’s points line the last 2 games have been upwards of 27.5. While the under hit against the Pelicans a few days ago on Twitter, that line was too high. Now, this one is too low for the matchup at hand.

The Bucks’ defense has been a mess all season long. The acquisition of Doc Rivers at the helm has not changed anything. In the 9 games with Rivers leading the Bucks, they have lost 6 times and are coming off allowing 125 points to the Miami Heat without Jimmy Butler and Terry Rozier.

The knock on Jackson has been his trouble to stay in the game. He ranks 2nd in the NBA in fouls per game with 3.57. Even facing off against Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard, I’ll gladly back Jackson at this number with his skyrocket usage.

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